OCR Text |
Show Food and Finance Germany's Perils Nation Near Bankruptcy and Can Go on Barely a Year Longer at Best. Bv OSCAR KING DAVIS (Copyright, 1917, by the New York Times Company.) THE biggest question in the world today is, how long can Germany stand it T Is she starving? Is she going bankrupt? Is she running out of raw materials? Is she exhausting ex-hausting her man power? The question ques-tion ha6 other variants, but they all mean the same thing, how long can Germany hold out against the pressure pres-sure of tbe allied blockade, against the economic warfare waged by Great Britain, as well as against the military warfare waged by all the Entente powers? The answer to tbis question carries car-ries with it for most of the world the answer to the question of how long the war is f.oing to continue. For it is only in Germany and the countries allied to her that one finds any substantial confidence that Germany may yet prove to be tho victor in the struggle. Outside of Germany one does not find the same readiness to believe in the possibility pos-sibility of economic or military exhaustion ex-haustion for the entente allies that is coustautly expressed with vigor and enthusiasm, if not with conviction, convic-tion, in Berlin and other German -centers. - 1 " " INQUIEY DIFFICULT. I set out for Berlin a few months ago in the hope that I would be able to travel about Germany and observe conditions with my own eyes, so that in some measure, at least, I might acquire at first hand and authoritatively information on which to base the answer to these questions. I was encouraged in this by the assurance of German acquaintances ac-quaintances in this country, some of them in such official station as to entitle their statements to credence, that it would be entirely possible aud not difficult for me to obtain accurate information as to Ger-I' Ger-I' many's economic condition. A great deal of information was 1 placed at my disposal in Berlin and elsewhere about Germany up to ' the time of the rupture of diplomatic diplomat-ic relations with the United States. It was comparatively easy to obtain material upon certain phases of Germany's economic condition. But along other lines investigation was more difficult and at times impossible. impos-sible. And in general there was constantly con-stantly encountered an indisposi- . tion to furnish exact or detailed information. in-formation. The call for statistics did not evoke enthusiastic response, and often the reply was made that the subject inquired about was a " military matter" concerning which no information (or at least do exact information) could be supplied. sup-plied. SITUATION SUMMARIZED. But authentic information did come into my possession which led to definite conclusions, which may be summarized as follows: 1. As to' food: A considerable portion of the German people are suffering from two causes: Food insufficient in quantity and variety, va-riety, and difficulty in obtaining the quantity allowed by government govern-ment regulation. j. The German government is deliberately de-liberately underfeeding a section of the people in order to furnish larger supplies to the army aud those who are contributing directly direct-ly to the maintenance of the war. 3. Germany cannot long survive another failure of the potato crop, . .such. asrshe4iad last year.' If 1917--' does no better by her than 1916 did, she will go to smash. 4. Germany is in serious danger of bankruptcy. She is rapidly approaching ap-proaching the point where the interest in-terest on her mounting war debt will consume her annual increment of wealth. On the estimates of her own financiers her margin of safety can last little more than a year. Its exhaustion will bring her face to face with disaster. 5. Reserve stocks of raw materials mate-rials and manufactured goods aro either exhausted or have been confiscated by the government for military use. Outside of the innermost in-nermost circlo no one knows what amounts of raw materials aro available. livoTy indication is that Germany is hard pushed, especially especial-ly for cotton and hides. One hears much about substitutes, and one meets substitutes on many occasions, occa-sions, but the cloak of military secrecy se-crecy covers the subject. (i. Germany is still able to main- (Cor.t.inucd on Page Five.) FOOD 10 FINANCE EMITS PERILS (Continued from Page One.) tain her fighting forces at full strength, but she is doing it by depleting de-pleting the ranks of labor behind the fighting lines. This depletion of labor menaces her power of endurance en-durance by threatening her in food production and other ways. She is approaching the limit of her man power, but her margin here is probably somewhat greater than in finance. These six paragraphs set forth the condition of Germany as I believe be-lieve it to be today. I had the advantage of studying the problem prob-lem in Germany and discussing it with men prominent in government govern-ment and other circles, including officials of the war and foreign offices, and leading men in banking, bank-ing, industrial, commercial and agriciiftti circles. liPftflTY GIVES STEENGTH. rS ir' real condition of Germany is -tjot an easy matter to ascertain, rre is a common saying among GerYfl ns (it seems to me I heard it at ItfKt once every day I was there), ;at whenever you meet three Germans discussing a matter you get at least five opinions from them. But that is upon matters of domestic policy or academic theory. the-ory. Concerning the war there is practically prac-tically complete solidarity and that is the main element iu Germany Ger-many 's amaziDg strength. No matter mat-ter now much one may be against Germany in this struggle, how thoroughly one may detest German Ger-man doings and how eagerly one may desire German downfall, one must admit the wonderful strength of will and power of organization that have marked the German course from the first, and one wrongs one's self and cheats bis own side of the great fight if he does not do so. NO FAT FOR THE CHTLDEEN. The Germans are not starving today, to-day, but certain elements of the population are distinctlv undernourished. under-nourished. There is scarcity of food, but it is not the search v alone that inflicts hardship upon the people. Chief among tho undernourished elements of the population are children between 4 and 10 years of age. In their case the trouble is due principally to scarcity of proper prop-er food. Thero is great shortage of milk, which is especially hard for little children. But there is also almost complete lack of fats in tho children's diet, and that is a matter mat-ter chiefly of government direction. There is fat enough in Germany I to give the children sufficient A quantities for propor rationing, if f J too government were willing to do or But tho government prefers to usN-Uie frit in the manufacture of muuniVuis and let the children suffer. suf-fer. So that is .just exactly what happens. The government justilles its course by tho rule of necessity on the theory that if this fat were not. used for munitions, the army might be beaton in the field and an ignominous peace forced upon 'Germany. 'Ger-many. The children aro onlv making mak-ing their due and proper sacrifice ' for the fatherland in giving up their fat ration for tho manufacture manufac-ture of munitions. Furthermore (but this is perhaps ft bit cynical), the deprivation of the children furnishes a talking point for indignant Germans who denounce England and the allies with unfeigned bitterness for the blockade, which is destroying the children of Germany, making them anaemic and weak, "blanching their checks and making their eyes dull and lustcrlcss. The aged and infirm also suffer greatly for want of their accustomed accus-tomed food, some of them even more because of the hardships attendant at-tendant upon obtaining the supply of food available for them. For it is not merely the scarcity of food, but in manv cases even more the difficulty of getting what the law and regulations allow that causes suffering for many persons. The government having taken supervision su-pervision of the food distribution, everything is done according to regulation. There is regulation after rogulnt ion. Tbov 001110 in n never ending and constantly shifting procession. pro-cession. did not take tho trouble to count tboso issued during mv slay iu Germany, but T know tbVv averaged more than one a day. ft iifemodf me that the newspapers evcTTiornins: printed one to tour nvc announcements from the nJTna gist racy, conveying new food Cjr regulations to the public, y Old persons or those not in good - boalth. who have beeu accustomed to take things easy and to get all thov wanted with little or no diffi- : culiy, are harassed by the coinpli- j cations of today, and" they have to meet these complications on food, i decreased in quantity and fixed in Duality and variety. Tt ifl no won- or that they show the .bad effects j or that some- feel and say that the j government is inflicting hardship upon them. LOWER. MIDDLE CLASS HA- i EASSED. j But the largest class of those 1 who feel the hardship of government govern-ment management of their food supply is that made up of the lower strata of the so-called middle class the less well paid, chiefly women, wom-en, who are not yet so poor as to be willing to throw themselves openly upon the government, yet 1 do not earn eultieient money to meet the increased cost of living. Added to their difficulty from lack of earning capacity is the physical difficulty of obtaining their small supply of food in accordance with the regulations. Shops are listed and customers assigned to them, with sales arranged according accord-ing to schedule and time. It takes several hours a day for the person making the food purchases to get the small supply for a family, and if one is a clerk, a seamstress, or does any one of a number of kinds of labor which require absence from home and service during specified hours, it is almost impossible impos-sible to do the waiting in line so necessary to get the allotted food. The German government frankly avows its purpose to feed the army first and then those whose labor goes to the direct support or maintenance main-tenance of the army, those who manufacture supplies and muni' tions, and so on. German officials assert with pride that the army lives as well as ever and that man.v soldiers are fed better than they were in private life. I found no reason to doubt them. The justification justifi-cation is the obvious one that when the army fails the whole nation suffers, suf-fers, and if the army is not fed well, the chance of failure is increased. in-creased. So when the food supply of the nation is curtailed, the army is the last to feel the pinch. With an organization for food distribution distribu-tion as efficient as that of Germany today tlxe government cannot escape es-cape the responsibility when any element of the population is consistently con-sistently underfed. Despite this suffering, and condition con-dition bordering upon starvation, the German people are still united and determined to see the war through. They are obsessed with the belief that their U-boats can bring their chief enemy to her knees in a few months, and they are convinced that once England has been brought down, it will not be difficult to negotiate peace with the others. T believe that their determination de-termination is strong enough to carry car-ry them through tho misery and hardship that remain before them until the new crops bring relief as to food. CAN LAST SEASON OUT. I think they will put the food issue is-sue to the test of the 917 harvests. Meantime they are exorting every energy to see to it that this year's crops shall be above normal. If the German leaders have their way Germany will produce more food in 1917 than she ever produced in the best years of peace-. Last year, in all the stress of the allied attempts to bring her to starvation, Germany increased the number of her cattle j and her swine. The German government govern-ment made the meat ration of the people on the basis of a reserve supply. sup-ply. And the loyal Germans, who nad been accustomed to eat one or two pounds of meat a day, received and got along with only one-half a pound a week. Now they will go through to the next harvest. If that succeeds, they may go much further. If it fails, the end will be not far off. But even if the harvest is good this vear, Germany will find herself her-self facing collapse next winter because be-cause of bcr financial situation. There is no help for that except in cessation of the war or victory that, will bring large indemnities, and even the Germans have pretty much given up talking about indemnities. The great Hiudenburg, upon whom Gennanv relies with almost idolatrous contidence to bring her whole out of the war, boasted awhile ago that Germany would win because, among other things, "France is bleeding white." But it is Germany that is bleeding white. The telltale blood count is beginning to show the results of the del. berate and consistent underfeeding under-feeding of her people. The mounting mount-ing interest charges are beginning to absorb all the red in her financial bloo'?. The steadily decreasing number num-ber of male civilian laborers throughout the empire tells the same story. The refusal of her factory fac-tory and mill men to take orders for foreign or even domestic shipment ship-ment points to the same end. Germany may go on for a year or even a little more. TheD it may be want of food, or money, or men, or all together that brings her down. Always provided that her foes are i able to go along at tho same speed 1 they are now showing. I do not believe be-lieve that Germany can last much, if any, more than another year. If ,the entente allies can outlast that, I believe they can bring Germany Ger-many down. If Germany has bad crops this year, it will be comparatively compar-atively easy. If she has good crops it will be more difficult, but still I believe it will be done, for her financial needs are driving her even more inexorably than her food situation, situa-tion, and no help is in sight for that. In subsequent letters I shall go into some detail as to several of these matters and as to my reasons 1 for some of the statements here made |