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Show THE VOICE OF BUSINESS Goodbye recession! Hello recovery! ' f; By Richard L. Lesher, Pres. Chamber of Commerce of the United States The recent agreement on a budget blueprint reached by the White House and Senate Republicans may leave you with the impression that the logjam in Washington has finally been broken, and a 1983 budget will now sail smoothly through Congress. Guess again. The package of tax increases in-creases and budget cuts will face rough sledding as it makes its way through various congressional committees. It is important to remember that while neither President Reagan nor many senators must face the voters this fall, each and every member of the House will and their political instincts tell them that the public is unalterably opposed op-posed to tax increases. But this is not the principal subject I wanted to discuss today. About a month ago, I described what I believed were the first signs of recovery from the recession. While my optimism was greeted enthusiastically by scores of readers, more than a few of the "old hands" in Washington raised their eyebrows at my prognosis. Today is seems that my one-man band has become a bandwagon. Numerous business publications and analysts are surveying the economic landscape more judiciously now and reaching the same judgment: The recovery has begun. It has begun despite the best efforts of the gloom and doom peddlers to suggest that this recession was somehow different from the previous seven recessions we have experienced since World War II that the bottom would fall out and the typical upswing that invariably follows a typical downswing would not occur this time. But this is precisely what is happening happen-ing now. And you can be sure that politicans on all sides will try to take credit for our private enterprise economy's ability t6 correst its own course. Yes, unemployment is at an intolerable in-tolerable level. But most economists agree that it is a lagging indicator, telling tell-ing us more about where we were than where we are today. The list of good news indicators is as long as your arm and it is growing week by week: -Consumer prices from January through March increased at a compound com-pound annual rate of one percent, amounting to a healthy increase in consumer con-sumer purchasing power. -The "Misery Index," the combined total of inflation and unemployment, fell to 5.7 percent in March, down from February's 11.4 percent. -Home mortgage rates have declined declin-ed to a 9'2 percent low. -Housing starts in March were up 11 percent and building permits up 20 per- cent since their October low. f Office building constructs lr creased four percent in March ; r February, and was up 44 percent: one year ago. ' Orders for durable goods i F risen for two consecutive months : , are now 5'-2 percent above : j January level. Business travel, depressed l t the spring of 1980, made a sharp: naround in March.- Auto rental t (; panies reported increases in anjw , from 23 to 40 percent. One hotel c reports an increase of 50 percent i: vance bookings. International Harvester jus! nounced it was recalling I employees after a two-month la; General Motors will return an; tional 9,000 workers to the job by k There is even good news for gK ment. Individual income tax rec ; have grown 9.1 percent over last;: t Corporate receipts are virtual!; i changed, despite forecasts that : ; would drop by a fourth. Companies reduced their i tories by an annual rate of $t during the first three months oi 1 the sharpest decline in decades, i result, increases in demand fc about by July's 10 percent tax otr have to be met by increased pri tion and jobs. Goodbye recession! Hello recove: |