Show i Behind the a War ar News I By Louis F F. F Keemle KeenIe United Press War Analyst Josef Stalin's message to the red army on its twenty-fourth twenty l anniversary Is a hopeful one from the allied viewpoint It contained the implied promise that Hitler's great spring offensive offensive offensive offen offen- sive is going to run up against a stone wall Only the course of events beginning beginning beginning be be- ginning about the middle of May Maywill Maywill Maywill will i indicate n d i cat c how good a prophet Stalin is He warned that it would be a stern fight and urged the soviet people not notto notto notto to delude themselves into thinking thinking thinking think think- ing that Hitler already is beaten While unable to present the people with announcement of any important concrete victory on the anniversary Stalin pledged that the enemy would be forced eventually from Russian Russian Russian Rus Rus- sian soil Realistic examination of the prospects however does not encourage the belief that it can be accomplished this spring What Russia may be beable beable beable able to do is to halt Hitler's new drive and keep the larger part of the German Gennan land and air forces tied up on the eastern front through 1942 The time gained would be of Immeasurable benefit to the al al- al lies A good deal may depend on the ability of the latter to keep supplies flowing into Russia Russia Russia Rus Rus- sia in sufficient quantities Hitler Hitler Hitler Hit Hit- ler can be counted on to do everything possible to prevent that Just as the Japanese are striking striking striking ing at the Burma road to hamstring hamstring hamstring ham ham- string China so is Hitler likely to attempt blows at Russia's line of supply One line is the Arctic route around Norway to and Archangel the theother theother theother other through the Indian ocean and the Persian gulf The escape of an important part of the German fleet from Brest has caused speculation in London over whether Hitler is planning to base a fleet at Trondheim In Norway and start a new war on north Atlantic shipping including the Russian supply route The nazi submarine submarine submarine rine exploits off the American coasts testify to their range and striking power Backed up by heavy fleet units they might be able to cause havoc with shipping shipping shipping ship ship- ping on the other side of the oc ocean an On the southern supply route to Russia the Japanese are in a position to collaborate with their nazi partner The Indian ocean is open to them for submarine raids on vital supply lines both to the middle east and Russia Hitler may try to drive through to Suez to Join forces with them The matter of the French fleet enters into the latter situation If Vichy can be coerced into turning over their not erble fleet to the axis the British British British Brit Brit- ish position in the Mediterranean would be menaced gravely The combined Italian and French fleets might be able to make the British lines in Libya untenable opening the way to Egypt and Suez Aden would be the next step Thus three possible danger poi points ts shape up for the summer the the north Atlantic the Medi Medi- Mediterranean Mediterranean and near east and Russia Militarily Hitler Is far from spent despite the severe Russian campaign Something of the same situation confronted the Japanese in China but they were nevertheless able to strike strikeout strikeout strikeout out suddenly and successfully in other directions In Russia as Stalin pointed out Hitler has lost the advantage advantage advantage tage of surprise and massed weight which he had last sum sum- mer It is not impossible however however however how how- ever that Hitler will conduct a holding action on the north and central fronts and concentrate his full power in the Ukraine and Crimea toward the Caucasus oil fields This could be accompanied accompanied accompanied nied by a drive through Turkey if the axis gets stronger in the Mediterranean i r 1 Hitler's primary objective was the Ukraine and the oil fields He needs the oil dil il now more than ever The fighting in the Moscow and Leningrad regions was designed designed designed de- de dei i signed to crush the red army It 1 failed because Hitler tried to take in too wide a front If he t decides he cannot break breal the army this year he is likely to abandon the attempt and revert J to his original objective in force |