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Show News & Views Highlights of news events and personal opinions of people and happenings in Davis County. 4P I By GARY R. BLODGETT ; J . news editor c J For years people have been talking about the steady rise of the Great Salt Lake and no one has been doing anything about it until now. But maybe they should have been listening to Dale R. Hawkins, a professor of finance at Weber State College. He may not have all the answers, but he certainly has been right about a lot of things even when he sticks his head on the proverbial chopping block. Maybe they should listen to him now. After all. Dr. Hawkins has been calling the shots for the past several years with more accuracy than the "professionals" "profes-sionals" in the business. Now, Dr. Hawkins has come out with his boldest prediction to date: He says he believes maps showing land elevations eleva-tions surrounding the Great Salt Lake are being misread mis-read that if you let the lake rise another 2 .5 feet, it will flow naturally into the west desert and save the state taxpayers millions and millions of dollars. What about the interim; between now and when the lake rises another 2.5 feet? Dr. Hawkins has the answer to this one, too. He says a trench could be dug that would allow the lake water to flow (drain) into the west desert at a cost that would be a heck of a lot less than the $55 million pumping program being proposed this week to the State Legislature. Crazy idea? Maybe so. maybe not. But there's one thing certain: when Dr. Hawkins starts to talk about the Great Salt Lake, you had better listen. He's been right on too many "crazy" things to not pay him some attention. First off, Dr. Hawkins has been remarkably accurate accu-rate with his calculations, and public opinions, since before the floods of 1983. He stated at that time that the lake would rise ' four feet, up to 4,205 feet Cabove sea level). People laughed at his forecast. But the lake did reach 4 ,205 feet that summer before it started back down. In fact, the lake reached a "second high peak" in 1 983 -- reaching 4 .206 . 1 5 , and still rising , on Dec . 30 , 1983. . i Dr. Hawkins continued his predictions by giving the lake a "98 percent change" of reaching 4,21 2.4 before this June and a "high probability of reaching the 4.21 5.0 foot-level by June of 1 988. "The lake is going to continue to rise for another three to five years," he says, pointing out that the Great Salt Lake is in the fourth year of a six-year "pulsing cycle" that began in 1982. If this is the case , the lake could continue to rise at a steady pace for another few years and not reach the highest of high water levels until 1988. And if that isn't bad enough, Dr. Hawkins further predicts that "there's a good chance" that the six-year six-year time pulse could extend the cycle of the rising Great Salt Lake to 1 994 Dr. Hawkins began earnestly studying the "trend of the Great Salt Lake" back in 1976 when he noticed a chart in the Weber State College Geology Department. He said the available statistics followed fol-lowed a pattern and he began studying those patterns and trends of past years and projecting his finding to the future. His studies of the changes in the lake level took him back to the days when Brigham Young and the Mormon Pioneers first settled in Utah. The first phase of study was the trends and weather patterns pat-terns between 1861 and 1873. It was in 1 873 that the lake reached its highest point until this week at 4,21 1 .6 feet above sea level. Dr. Hawkins noted that even though the lake will recede during a normal summer, will the lake level drop below the previous year's high mark? During the past four years this has not happened. Thus , the chances are "better than average" that new record high water levels will continue in future years. |