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Show I ! Economic Upturn Foreseen, Slow But Sure By DONALD L. SNYDER A modern upturn should occur sometime this year. Although it won't be very rapid, it will be a solid improvement. im-provement. Some of the things that we might look for this year are: -INTEREST RATES. The prime rate will range from 10 to 1 3 pecent and will probably finish the year averag- . ' ing close to 11 and 12 percent. The rate charged to commercial firms and private individuals, of course, . will be higher. , . 1 Although there has been some modernation of interest in-terest rates in recent months, that trend is not expected to continue unless the recovery of the economy is slower slow-er than anticipated. It is difficult to say whether the Federal Reserve will attempt to control the money supply or adjust the money supply to consumer demand. de-mand. Conflicting signals are coming from the Federal Reserve at this time regarding this policy. --INFLATION RATE. It is anticipated that the inflation infla-tion rate will only be moderately higher than last year, which is the lowest it has been in many years. The inflation should not exceed an average 6 percent for the year. It is expected that the inflation rate will remain low the first half of the year and increase slightly the second half. However, it is extremely doubtful that the inflation rate will reach 8 or 9 percent by the end of the year. -Unemployment. It is anticipated that 3 million more Americans will find jobs as major industry shows recovery recov-ery signs. Unemployment will decline to just under 10 percent by the year's end. While the rate is high, it is much lower than this period in 1982. The thing that is often overlooked is the fact that total employment has continued to increase in spite of the fact that unemployment unemploy-ment has increased. This occurs because the rate of which new jobs are created in the economy cannot match the rate at which the population is expanding or various sectors of the population begin looking for work. It is wrong to assume that just because unemployment unem-ployment increases, fewer people are working! --GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT. The average growth for the year should approach 3 to 3.5 percent. Retail and wholesale sales and sales of durable goods will be strong during the last half of 1983. There has been a recent increase in consumer buying which should stimulate the economy even further. --Agricultural Sector. Feed grain prices have increased in-creased dramatically due to the enrollment into the PIK program by the farm community. Feed grain prices are expected to remain strong through the remainder of 1983 in spite of the face that export demand is not expected to improve. Domestic demand for agricultural commodities is not expected to be particularly strong. ' |