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Show SB stole SfinipsKSfl soundly A Uintah Basin oil shale impact study was revealed this week that foretells a population increase of nearly three times the present size during a 15 year period. The population explosion would jam the schools and make unprecedented un-precedented demands for housing and municipal services, according to the report. Uintah County, where the energy resources are clustered, would be hardest hit. Us school enrollment of 5,355 students last fall was already 232 over capacity. The energy-based population influx is expected to swell that enrollment by 4,927 in the peak year of 1988 starting with 148 new students in 1980, jumping to 859 more in 1981, 1,764 in 1982 and similar leaps threafter. For Uintah Basin as a whole (including Duchesne and Daggett counties), coun-ties), total enrollment last fall from kindergarten through high school was 9,354 only 354 under capacity. It faces POPULATION 100,000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I I I 95,000 " S 90, 000 ' 85 , 000 80,000 " 7 5, 000 - 70, 000 -T- 65,000 7 ' 60,000 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 POPULATION PROJECTIONS for the Uintah Basin , 55,000 fr0m 1980 t0 1995, if oil sha'e' tar sand and related energy projects induce growth. The population in- 50,000 crease is based on Geokinetics, Paraho, Tosco, and White River Shale oil shale developments; Deseret 45,000 -y Power Moon Lake plants No. 1 and 2, White River Dam construction and Sohio tar sand project. These 40,000 activities are projected to bring a 95,000 population to the Basin in the next 15 years, according to the im- 35,000 pact study just released by the Uintah Basin Energy Development Council office in Vernal. 30,000 ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' 1 Year.. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 the prospect of 7,580 more students by 1988. The same year would see total Basin population peak at about 60,000 according accor-ding to the projections. The present population is 33,140. There are now 10,931 dwelling units in the Basin. The new energy-related population will require 7,751 additional units by 1988. The work force to construct new energy projects will steadily increase from 1980 to a peak of 4,200 in 1987, then start to drop off. The work force to operate the facilities, a more permanent perma-nent population, is expected to reach 3,690 in 1991 and then level off. To arrive at total new populations anticipated, an-ticipated, 85 percent of the operational jobholders are assumed to be married (60 percent of the construction workers), with 3.6 persons per family, statistically. These require support services, ser-vices, such as housing construction, . food and entertainment, which generate more jobs, more families, more support services. A larger multiplier 7,625, is thus applied to the permanent operation workforce to estimate the lulcn new influx of people Therefore, the 1987 construction work force of 4,200 would mean a total of 4,200 new dwellings needed, but a total population increase of 12,781. The operation workforce of 3,690 in 1991 (with the support population) would require re-quire 6,102 dwellings and mean a new population of 23,931 by that year. These impacts were based only on development of four oil shale projects well along in planning and preparation : Geokinetics, Paraho, Tosco and White River Shale, as well as the first unit of Moon Lake Power plant and White River dam and hydro power plant. I 1 1 1 1 i i 1 J POPULATION PROJECTIONS for the Uintah Basin , from 1980 to 1995, if oil shale, tar sand and related energy projects induce growth. The population increase in-crease is based on Geokinetics, Paraho, Tosco, and White River Shale oil shale developments; Deseret Power Moon Lake plants No. 1 and 2, White River Dam construction and Sohio tar sand project. These activities are projected to bring a 95,000 population to the Basin in the next 15 years, according to the impact im-pact study just released by the Uintah Basin Energy Development Council office in Vernal. 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 A host of other projects in the conceptual concep-tual planning stage were not included. If these were also brought to fruition, the impact on the basin would be multiplied proportionately. These include in-clude Sun-Sohio-Phillips and Cleveland Cliffs shale oil shale project, unit No. 2 of Moon Lake power plant. Sohio Cooperative tar sands project and Uintah Uin-tah County road and bridge construction construc-tion projects. Others, in the research and development stage and not included includ-ed in the impact projections, include Raytheon Oil shale project, Halliburton-IIt Research Company oil shale project and Cleveland Cliffs IIT Research Company tar sand project. The information was prepared by Uintah Basin Association of Governments Govern-ments and Uintah Basin Energy Development Council for the Utah Department of Community and Economic Development Council at the request of DOE. It is a rough draft of the report subject to modification. The report is based on : Moon Lake power plant construction construc-tion start in 1980 and completion in 1984; Paraho start in 1981 and completion comple-tion in 1986; Tosco start in 1981 and completion in 1984; White River Dam construction start in 1981 and comple- (Continued on Page 16) Oil shale impact (Continued from Page 1) tion in. 1983; and White River Shale start in 1982, to be finished in 1990. The latter would have the largest construction construc-tion work force, peaking at 4,200 in 1987. A proposed transportation plan to serve the energy resource area of southern Uintah County has been proposed pro-posed for three main projects, estimated to cost over $57.5 million. Road project No. 1 will connect South Asphalt Ridge, the Greater Red Wash Oil and Gas Field, the two Moon Lake (Deseret Generation) Power plants, the Paraho Shale Plant, the White River Shale Plant, the American Gilsonite Plant thp 7piolpr Gilsonite Plant the White River Dam, Reservoir, and Hydro Electric Plant. It will provide for improved access to the proposed SunSohioPhillipsCleveland Cliffs Shale Projects, and provide access to other shale lands, developing gas field, and tar sands area south of the White River Shale Project along the Seep Ridge Road. The road from south of the White River follows closely the 1905 alignment of the Watson Rail head to Vernal road. This area will require about 82 percent per-cent of the County's projected new-energy new-energy permanent work force and 1990 and near 90 percent of the projected construction work force in 1987. This area is projected to produce from a low of 60,000 barrels per day up to 330,000 barrels per day of shale oil by 1990. The 60.000 barrels per day will require re-quire moving approximately 420 large truck and trailer loads of oil to market per day until the pipe line is constructed. The initial road project needed to provide pro-vide the above services will start at 4500 South 1500 East, Venal, and run south and southeast in a near straight line interconnecting in-terconnecting with the Bonanza road 5'i miles north of Bonanza requiring 26 miles of new and improved road and one bridge over the Green River. The road will then extend south from Bonanza four miles across the White River to the White River Shale Project Junction. The bridge across the White River is part of the White River Dam Project funded by the State of Utah. Road project No. 2 is from Geokinetics to Ouray to provide a transportation link to the other major oil shale and energy projects on the west and southern part of the county and interconnect them to the populated area on the west side of Uintah County and Roosevelt City. This road project will serve Tosco Oil Shale Project and Geokinetics Oil Shale Operation, the only project presently producing oil from oil shale. These two projects are projected to produce from 35,000 barrels per day to 120,000 barrels per day by 1990 and will require about 18 percent of the projected new energy permanent county work force in 1990 and 10 percent of the construction work force in 1987. This road will be needed to move an estimated 43,000 barrels of oil per day and will require moving 224 truck and trailer loads per day by 1990 or until pipeline facilities are available. In addition, this project will serve a very large and growing gas development develop-ment area along with some oil production, produc-tion, one new gilsonite mine, and provide pro-vide access to large undeveloped oil shale and tar sand areas, including the Naval Oil Shale Reserve and lands wilh oil shale H & D projects in process. The initial construction for this transportation project will start at the end of the pavement three miles south of Ouray and extend 30 miles up and along the Seep Ridge Road to the Geokinetics Plant. Road project No. 3 is from Ouray to Uonan.a and is designed to distribute more of the job opportunities and growth potential to the west side of Uintah Uin-tah County, Roosevelt, and Eastern Duchesne County. This plan will interconnect the high density job area around Bonanza to the Ouray area near the center of the Uintah Uin-tah Basin allowing additional work force to come from Utah relieving the pressure on the Rangely area, where coal mining and other energy jobs will create substantial socio-economic impacts. im-pacts. This interconnecting road will also provide a road to the Ute Indian Irrigation Irriga-tion Project and diversion dam on the White River and to a large area being developed now for oil and gas production. produc-tion. This interconnection link will require re-quire reconstruction of a road which has been in use since 1905 when it was built to connect Ouray, Fort Duchesne, Roosevelt, Whitcrocks, and West side with the railroad at Watson. |