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Show WILSON LEADS II NATION-WIDE MM VOTING; i i Final Poll of New York Herald Shows the President Presi-dent Is Ahead of Hughes. SOME EVIDENCE OF LANDSLIDE IS SHOWN Possibility of Democratic Victory Without the States of New York and Indiana. i - NEW YORK, Nov. 5. The New York Herald this morning publishes its final nation-wide poll of the presidential situation, situ-ation, as follows: (Copyright, 10IG, by the New York Herald company; all rights reserved.) The Herald presents herewith tho final installment of its national straw , vote canvass on the presidency. In tho quarter of a million votes cast, President Wilson Is In the lead. The situation rests on a balance so delicate that a hair's weight may-swing may-swing It in either direction. 1 From the straw vote it might he inferred that, with a little added 1m- j petus, the drift which has been steadily steadi-ly moving In the president's direction might grow into what political writers have termed a 'nandslide." 1 On the other hand, a back drift at j the eleventh hour might result in the election of Mr. Hughes by a small j margin in the poplar vote of Impor- 1 j tant states, giving a preponderance of votes in the electoral college. The Herald has taken Its straw vote with customary care. . In some 1 j Instances the conclusions which might I ! be drawn from the figures are in contradiction to the opinions of the leaders of both parties and are at variance with the personal judgment of correspondents who have personally person-ally visited different statea The Herald presents the Btraw vote figures for precisely what they are worth. They speak for themselves, as they have in all previous campaigns. cam-paigns. Slight Check in Gains. j The Herald has been told that there has been a recession In the swing toward the president; that the Republicans, Re-publicans, who were alarmed ten days ago, have every reason now for a feeling of confidence. The straw vote has not registered a marked drift toward Mr. Hughe3, although there are indications that there has been a slight check in the rate of the president's gain. Of the total votes cast up to and including the seventh and last week of the canvass. Mr. Hughes has received 48 .2 per cent. In the first week's totals lie received 01. 6 per cent. In the final week's compilation President Wilson received 49.2 per cent. In the first week he received 46.4 per cent. In other words, the president has climbed steadily in the straw vote. Mr. Hughes has fallen behind from week to week. Likewise, In the division of the Progressive Pro-gressive vote, tho nominees have moved in opposite directions; Mr. Hughes backward, the president forward. for-ward. In the latter part of September Mr. Hughes was getting 80 per cent of the Progressive vote and the presi- . dent 17 per cent. Hughes Loses at Finish. In the final week, which for the ac- tual casting of test ballots ended on Thursday, Mr. Hughes was receiving 73.6 per cint and tiie president 26.1 per cent. The remainder went to Mr. j Benson, Socialist nominee. ; A slight check in the shift of Pro- j gresslves to President Wilson was Indicated In-dicated In the final week. StatftB which In the test votmg nave i given 50 per cent or more to the pree- I ident have a total of 193 electoral votes. The solid south the states of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina,- Georgia, Florida. Alabama, Mississippi. Ijouisiana, Arkansas and Texas which will be for the Democracy, Democ-racy, has 154 electoral votes. These figures make a total of 307, which is 4 1 more than the 66 necessary for election. States in which the test balloting have given 50 per cent or more to Mr. Hughes have an electoral vote of 183. With Pennsylvania (38) and Utah (4 added to that, the total Is 224. In the first week of the straw vote i campaign, out of 14,052 votes Mr. ; Hughes received a majority of 1643. By using enly a third of California's top-heavy straw vote in the calculationCalifornia's calcula-tionCalifornia's vote being disproportionate dispro-portionate to the rest of the country coun-try Mr. Hi; L-lies wouid have had a plurality of 775, In the second week, by figuring California the same way. Sir. Hughes would have a total lead of 1461 Instead In-stead of ?s?i. In thn third week the figures would have been 1250 Instead of 4184. In the fourth week the figures would have been 17"2 Instead of 4P2tf. In the fifth week there would have been a Wilson plurality of 355 instead in-stead of a Hughes plurality of 3727. In the sixth week there was a Wilson Wil-son plurality of 67D3 instead of a Hughes lead of 722. President in Lead. Tn the rinal week the "Wilson plurality plural-ity would have been 7472 Instead of 2K2. The Herald makes these comparisons com-parisons because It would not seem entirely fair to Incorporate in the (Continued on Page Twenty-sIxO WILSON IS LEADING II I Y. HERALD POLL fContlnued trom Page One.) grand totals what amounted to a tenih of the total vote cast In the thirty-six states. California's share i was about one-tenth and It showed ! an overwhelming majority each week ! for the Republicans. I Likewise, If the vote of California be reduced to Its proportional figure ! the percentage of the total.,vote, as the j canvass closed, goinr V1' the presi-1 presi-1 dent would be 50.i per cent and to Mr. Hughes 47.1 per cent, Mr. Benson Ben-son getting the difference. I In all the Republican estimates II-1 II-1 linols and Michigan are placed in the Republican column Michigan unreservedly; unre-servedly; Illinois with the admission that the women may overturn it. With twenty-nine votes from Illinois and the fifteen from Michigan the figures would be increased to 2t'.S, two more than the number needed to elect. Other Rtates which Republicans say will go Democratic only in the event of an almost unprecedented political ,. upheaval are Washington, with seven electoral votes; Wisconsin, with thirteen, thir-teen, and Minnesota with twelve. The Democrats make confident claims of having the three, though in the minds ot the political managers there is doubt not only about Washington, Wash-ington, but about West Virginia, Nebraska, Ne-braska, Wisconsin and Maryland. The Republicans are making a hard fight to keep Ohio in the Republican column, but they have slenderer hopes there than In some other states. They confidently expect to have the fifteen fif-teen votes from Indiana, though there is doubt In that stnte, with the odds favoring the Republicans. The states which will decide the contest are New York, Ohio, Indiana. Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. There Is a possibility that as one goes,New York excepted, they will all go. They have always been strong Republican Re-publican states. Tho Horald straw vote indications are that New York and Indiana will be Republican and that the others will be Democratic. Summary of Vote. Total votes cast, 24S.463. For Wilson, 122,192. For Hughes, 3i;,o20. For Benson, 6429. Plurality for Wilson, 2672. Plurality lor Hughes last week, 722. Roosevelt to Wilson, 9042. Roosevelt to Hughes, 27,226. Taft to Wilson. G561. Wilson to Hughes, 11,120. Total shift to Wilson, 15.003. Total shift to Hughes, 38,346. j New York Herald Test Polls, With Totals by Weeks: i Oct. 8. Oct. 13. Oct. 22. Oct. 29. Nov. 5. Wilson St5,f2S 49,878 G9.17S 99,153 122,193 Hughes 41.113 54.S04 72.905 99,870 119,520 Benson 1.565 2.51S 3.591 5,233 6,429 Totals 79,605 107,200 145,674 204,261 243,141 Percentage of shifts from one party to another and from Roosevelt to the president and Mr. Hughes: 1st. 2nd. Srd. 4th. 5th. Cth. 7th. 8th. j Taft to Wilson 173 .117 .105 .102 .111 .163 .155 .133 I Wilson to Hughes 209 J28 .162 .162 .J35 .13$ .111 .144 Roosevelt to Wilson 173 .21 .240 .252 .250 .269 .251 .247 Roosevelt to Hughes 809 .774 .750 .737 .740 .722 .736 .743 I. I |