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Show Stock Market Surprises Economists By EDWARD THORLLND The recent strong upturn of the stock market surprised most economists and brokers by its strength. ONE OF the main reasons, the guesses hold, is the public's pub-lic's mood. As oldtime analysts often remark, it's not what business conditions really real-ly are or will be but what the public things they will be that determines the trend of the stock market. And passage of the recent tax reform-increase bill apparently appa-rently convinced many Americans Amer-icans that a pragmatic Reagan Administration could produce economic recovery. THE SURGE was fueled also by fears of what might have happened had the president presi-dent lost the fight for increased revenue and tax reform. Public confidence in Washington would have nosedived, and the feeling that there was no strong leadership, no direction, would have been inevitable. But President Reagan's victory vic-tory strongly increases the public impression that at least there's a chief executive in the national capital who can lead, who can get congressional cooperation. IN THE final analysis, this may be the most important factor fac-tor in the public's growing confidence con-fidence in recovery. Interest rates are dropping steadily also and this will decrease the amount of money the government govern-ment must pay in interest just financing the trillion dollar national na-tional debt. There's a chance for a beginning begin-ning of a real recovery in the final quarter of this year, though majority opinion still holds the recession was so deep real recovery won't be very much evident until 1983. |