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Show TT "T iA The Salt Take 1 rituni, r 'Tf t Januarv IT Suiulav n1 y f r r y yv V l'thti Chinas Step Forward Is Not Without Trepidation difoi s Nofe i ' M t; unott ti mu series v u jeuetary torn-if- of Vc jti appeal u: O'1. J i in T n- Tr iljufUthe only ne wv ( tes to it in ft i.s, ut eo to uer the r cade' n udiM jo to hir contr ibut'ons to tfie f e a of fort-- r;n (jftairs, Dr K issmgfi the rec'p ent of the Nouh Peace Hi e m .vHj oi iU tfH fJ esiOent'Ui Veda1 of c ' erij'ji n m IV m r,vng-- if.li t By Hem v cr rnuu has always followed a its own Its huge mass and cengraphic diversity the blend of rs thm ol talent and cultural hoe its enormous populamogeneity tion. the longest uninterrupted uf any na-history ot ion combine to etisore that its problems are ot a different scale and sig infieanee than any other country m me world No il is with ('Inna's current etlort to modernize No nation has ever un uartahen so monumental a task The industrialization of Kurope look place country by country at intervals efia generation, the process extended over the better part of a century The individual nations of Kurope at the tnTie of their industrialization had populations of 2a million or less, and technology n'Oic; e' un u contrast seeking to mtvc 'i rwrd 40 tones u many people in lc$s than ont fif'h of the time and from a iinicti less promising technological bu c Moreover in Kurope the inu-'tiarevolution emerged as a a j! ev elution from previous histo-rv- ; for China modernization in many wdys contradicts its traditions. Modernization is a powerful cultural intellectual and managerial asks are largely similar wherever mass production takes hold. China, on th$ other hand, has always sought influence by the solitary majesty of its culture At the same time, the cultural unjqueness of China goes hand in hand with an extraordinary variety among its regions, which are physically separated by vast distances and daunting geographic obstacles. These ethnic and geographic realities have historically generated an oscillation between a fear of anarchy leading to staling centralization and a loosening of 'Controls in danger of turning into regional separatism Jhese traditional obstacles to re- elm-mee- i - lev-eld- term j. e being coinpoundi d in our tune bv an ideolngii al n- - is ihe bankruptcy ot Soviet Myh c onoiii ic Kxperience leaves no doubt thai the Soviet mod 1. which is practiced lo a greatt r or lesser extent in every Communist e infry. except possibly Hungary, is a certain route to .stagnation Where labor and materials are allocated by governmental quotas, managers have no knowledge or in controlling costs Nor are managers in the Soviet system lu mil i. u in any detail with their markets .lust as some governmental entities provide their resources others take their output, and distribute it by criteria in which the desires of consumers play a marginal role Such a system is compatible with the achievement ot crude quantita live goals, it has no mechanism to improve efficiency i to generate quality All ot its incentives operate against innovation that would affect the vested interests that established allocations in the first place. Moreover, as modern production comes to depend increasingly on information technology. Communist economies are bound to fall even further behind, for the dominant Communist parties will not give up their jealously guard ed monopoly over the distribution of information Sueli innovation and flexibility as exists emerges illegally In a system in which so much depends on the decision of remote bureaucrats. corruption and black markets flourish as a mechanism to influence bureaucratic decisions; they have proved nearly ineradicable China alone among Communist nations has had the courage to seek to tackle this crisis head-on- . Deng Xiaoping and his colleagues have chosen a path to modernization lor which there is no precedent, they are sufficiently Communist to be suspicious of private ownership but they are sufficiently practical to understand that central planning on the Soviet model is incompatible with modernization They have stressed individual incentives and markets within the framework of a loose central plan So far the successes have been startling. In agriculture China is now an exporter in some categories; in the cities t1 dreary conformity of the period of the Cultural Revolution and its immediate aftermath is being over arming Henry Kissinger China Takes on a Huge Task come by er goods a visible And yet the most diffietilt part of the journey is still ahead especially as Ihe costs appear immediately w hile some ol the undoubted benefits will be delayed by some years prices come to reflect real costs thev are likely to rise, at least in some categories Some inetficiii: plants will have to close. local unrmpl y ment will develop temporarily No Chinese born since the Communist takeover has any experience in dealing with these phenomena The Maoist period produced a low standard of living But for the unenterprising it had the consolation of uniformity, and for the top elite, the seductions of unirammeled power The new economic emphasis in China implies not only an economic but also a political upheaval. For the new system is a profound threat to prevalent social status. The paradox of Soviet-stylcommunism away from which China is moving is low productivity, poor and few consumer goods, for the many, while an elaborate network of special stores, special schools, special hospitals and vacation reports takes care of the needs of the ruling elite Cnder the Chinese reforms, that complex and rigid hierarchy is - - nes wheth- 'h'-- er the remarkable achievements of the past six years can be perpetuated in a period lie succession of a great man is always hard o predict nowhere more so than in China. which tends to clothe even the ephemeral in the appearance of permanence. Still. Deng has shown ex traordiiiury wisdom and sensitivity in putting into place several layers of succession. The longer tie lives the greater is the prospect that these will become unchallengeable. And in any event the millions of victims of the Cultural Revolution are inoculating the nation against a return to its excesses. The question of whether the reforms will simply run into the sand after Deng's death is harder to answer. On balance I think the Chinese leaders are too rational and practical not to conclude albeit with fits and starts that there is no compromise possible between broad Soviet-styl- e planning and Deng s present course. In one way or anotner the experiment now being pursued has its own momentum. To stop now would leave g post-Den- (c) The modernization of China will produce a new model for growth the developing world, somewhere between unrestrained private enterprise. of which many new nations are afiaid. and Soviet-styl- e economics, which cannot work. in success of China will produce two challenges for the Soviet Union Geopolitically it will have to deal with an increasingly powerful neighbor; ideologically a Chinese success will establish a more humane alternative to Moscow's version of communism, one moreover much less dominated by a oligarchy. All this culminates in the dilemma that an attempt to emulate China would evoke massive political strains, because Moscows planning apparatus is much more deeply entrenched and much more tied to the preeminence of the Communist Parly than China's. 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Discontinued models. and below department and furniture store list prices everyday. marked below our already low factory direct prices that save you 40-6- 0 government UTAH'S LOWEST be tei t DAYBEDS American officials believe the betterment in relations stems from need for Iriends abroad at a time when Ins eeonomv is limping I'idlv lh n more! p yj bu a Start the new year pop-u- ed at ri o Sleeps two with optional and mattress I., 'll di S SAVE - came to power in October 1081 with a promise lo improve Greek relations with the Soviet Union, pull out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and throw U S forces out ot bases in Greece Relations hit another low point tins past June, when the State Department said Athens airport was unsafe and advised Americans to avoid it. following the hijacking of a TWA flight Greece was said to. have lost millions ol American tourist dollars as a result of the warn-m- can business leadership in the development of China both because of U S. technological prowess and because of w hat I take to be a deliberate Chinese decision to create vested American interests in Chinese security. American business must not delude itself with the mirage of huge markets and quirk profits. Business leaders must not define their role as selling their own priorities to an uninformed bureaucracy, or their challenge as overcoming delay by discovering and persuading hidden decision-maker- s When the Chinese delay decisions there are intellectual, political or bureaucratic reasons they consider important; it is almost never a lack cf comprehension. What China needs is infrastructure and medium- - and long-terdevelopment projects. This will require an unprecedented degree of vision and ingenuity in cooperative projects conceived over a period of time relevant to Chinese priorities and development needs. On that basis the business leaders of Ihe industrial democracies have a chance to participate in an enterprise that is not only intellectually exciting but will conworld peace tribute to long-terit And if it succeeds as it should is one of the rare cases where everybody benefits. In a future article I shall discuss the implications of these trends and prospects for American foreign O&l&O January illi Sale of Plane: since Papandreou's undi r Way The one min - - e man-ager- e I p NvaSHINGTON(AP) - After years nUchilly encounters, including Greek threats to abandon the Western alliance, ties between the United States ami Greece are becoming warmer amid predictions the ''difficult hours" m&y be over .The latest sign ot a thaw between (be Reagan administration and the Socialist government of Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou occurred just last week. The State Department agreed that Greece was staunch to enough ari ally and secrels-keepe- r buy 40 American warplanes crhmmed with sophisticated electronics equipment That agreement added to a considerable reduction recently in the number of anti-U.statements by Papandreou - led one administration official to say. ''were not shout now. we re talking ing at each other and listening " Still, things have come a long way growth ol consum- Sino-Sovie- tions Enthusiastic forecasts of the imminent emergence of Western-stylcapitalism are not only likely to be wrong, they also run the risk of unintentionally becoming weapons in internal Chinese controversies The issue in China is not the return of private ownership hut decentralization of decision making (b) America has a major stake in China's success A strong and independent China is in America's interest not because it will be easy to deal with quite the contrary - but because the threats to its security will for the foreseeable future come from countries the United States too considers threats to global security. In this sense, the modernization of China not as serves American interests an American card against the Soviet Uniun - but because in maintaining its own security for its own purposes. China contributes to the global OPEN TODAY, SUNDAY, NOON TO 6 P.M., MON. - FRI. I'.S.. Greek Relations VS ' Union into an anachronism even in the Communist world This is why the ultimate crisis in t relations will nut occur in when in fact the immediate future an improvement in relations is probable but at the point where Chinese growth has become irreversible and the Soviet Union must abandon its present hope that the Chinese experiment will collapse. At that point the Soviet Union will consider whether to try to interrupt this process by force Such a decision is by no means inevitable. But the danger cannot be exorcised by ignoring it ie) The United States should use whatever discretionary power it has to encourage the transfer of technology to China and to assist its economic growth (f) A special role falls on Ameri- China uneasily sujpended between all Us dilemmas without the means to solve any For the United States the Chinese experiment has several implications e lai Americans - both official and private - must understand the spiritual and political travail of China, which goes far beyond technical issues They must be sensitive to the Chinese allergy to foreign prescrip- threatened as monetary incentives become dominant Then performance rather than official status will determine life style The beneficiaries of the previous system will lose much of their distinctive status It would he against human nature weie the old ruling elite not to resist such changes, if not openly, at least by delaying the implementation of directives In China this process produces a de facto coalition between traditionalists lighting for their view uf the Chinese way of life in the name of resist ng the contamination of foreign influences and Maoists defending their version of the proper Communist economics In most countries innovative managers at lower levels must overcome the resistance of the more conservative senior leadership. In China the opposite is occurring The top leadership's emphasis on incentives and market forces has to be implemented in the provinces by too many executives who are without experience with either and lack enthusiasm for the reforms The full impact of the reforms will therefore only become apparent when a new group of is in place a process now 01 |
