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Show Overall Economic Trend Points To Continued Strength Utah's overall economic trend in the first half of 1978 points to continued economic strength in the months ahead, said Richard S. Parkinson, manager, quoting the First Security Bank News Letter. Dr. Kelly K. Matthews, vice president and economist for First Security, is editor of the News Letter, which was published this week. EVIDENCE OF this economic strength is the number of new employees on nonagricultural payrolls, which in June increased 5.8 percent, up 28,300 jobs since June, 1977. Employment in the mining industry was up 5.1 percent, manufacturing employment up 5.5 percent and contract construction emplqyment up 10.3 percent. Rapid and substained employment growth in these diversified basic industrial sectors indicates increased production-an important factor fac-tor in the strength of Utah's economy. Employment growth in trade, services and related industries in June was running run-ning ahead of last year by more than 6 percent, but federal government employment in the state was down 1.9 percent for the same period. Utah's unemployment rate in June was 5.2 percent, and third quarter projections are for it to vary near the June rate. THE STATE'S coal production produc-tion continues to expand rapidly with 4.5 million tons produced during the first half of the year and second quarter production 25 percent ahead of last year's, the News Letter said. Petroleum exploration and, drilling maintained last year's record pace during the first half of 1978. Production of petroleum in Utah has apparently ap-parently stabilized after declining for the past two years. THE NEWS Letter reported that residential construction activity should remain strong in the third quarter, although the number of permits for new dwellings may continue slightly below last year's record pace. Sustained growth in employment and income makes the third quarter outlook for consumer spending spend-ing highly favorable in Utah. Retail sales in Utah for fiscal year 1978 were up 13. 7 percent compared with a gain of 15.4 percent in fiscal 1977. The Wasatch Front counties of Weber, Davis, Salt Lake and Utah all registered double-digit double-digit first quarter percentage gains in retail sales. ACCORDING TO the News Letter, automobile sales in the third quarter are expected to be generally strong, continuing con-tinuing the favorable sales volume recorded in the second quarter. Car sales were sluggish early this year, however, and total vehicle sales for the first four months were 16 percent below last year. The demand for consumer credit-a major indicator of consumer attitudes-remained attitudes-remained strong in the second quarter. The News Letter noted that consumer loans outstanding at commercial banks in the Salt Lake area in June had increased 30 percent above year-ago totals. ECONOMIC growth nationwide nation-wide in the third quarter is expected to ease significantly from the rapid pace recorded in the previous period, reported the First Security publication. The national Index In-dex of Consumer Confidence rose in June, ending four consecutive months of declines. Weather-related problems in the first quarter 1978 were responsible for squeezing most of the business activity this year into the second quarter, requiring that the economic appraisal of those quarters be considered as a unit. During that time frame, real growth in economic output out-put for the U.S. advanced approximately 3 34 percent. The comparable growth rate in national output in the second half of 1978 is expected to range near 3-3 percent. An outright recession remains unlikely next year, although the pace of real growth in the U.S. economy may further diminish. EVIDENCE OF the underlying un-derlying momentum of the national economy is the rapid growth in job opportunities and reduction in unemployment to 5.7 percent in June. During the first half of the year, inflation accelerated ac-celerated to an annual rate of approximately 10 percent and wage gains averaged S'2 percent. |