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Show Automotive Industry Still Stumps Experts as Car Numbers Increase Ownership of motor vehicles in U. S. continues today, as it has for over 43 years, to rise at a faster rate than was predicted by reputable studies. There are about 41 million cars, trucks, and buses being used In the nation today. That Is two million more than the U. S. Public Roads Administration said, in 19-16, would be in use by 1950. . Back in 1938, IRA estimated it would be 1960 before U. S. had 33 million vehicles in use. That total was reached two years ago. The PRA forecasts, however, have been more accurate than most others. For example, a petroleum pet-roleum firm made an exhaustive study In 1934 and came up with a forecast that by 1950 the nation na-tion would have 34 million Vehicles. Ve-hicles. That figure was passed in 1941. It's been like that ever since 1904, when the nation's leading financial experts warned the au. tomotlve industry that It was over-expanded. That year the industry in-dustry produced 23,000 vehicles. Today, it makes that many in eight hours. In 1908, the nation's largest Investment house, declaring the automotive Industry had reached a "saturation" point, refused to Invest In a plan that would have merged two firms that now are the two largest automotive companies com-panies on earth. In 1921, the nation's then leading lead-ing business Investment counsel said U. S. wouldn't have over 12 million motor vehicles "until coal dust or some other cheap fuel can be used." Another 1921 forecast by a famous Cleveland banker, was that 20 million vehicles was the nation's limit, since that was the total number of families able to buy cars. And we hadn't enough gasoline for more, he added. A bit later, the National Bureau Bur-eau of Economic Research made a long study which agreed with the 20 million limit and pointed out that "a factor which holds back sales is the impossibility of garaging cars within cities because land is too valuable." Occasionally, forecasts have erred on the optimistic side. One economist in 1929 predicted the industry would build, from 1930 to 1934, twice as many vehicles as were actually made in those years. The economist hadn't counted on a depression in the 'thirties. "If we had a 'planned econmy in this country", points out one 'automobile market research expert, ex-pert, "the Industry would have been forced to expand, or cur-tall cur-tall expansion, in accord with their forecasts. Mistakes would have been made that would have wrecked the whole industry". Actually, each automotive firm does its own private planning so If it makes mistakes, it alone suffers. Those firms that avoided avoid-ed serious errors in future planning plan-ning have gone on to set production pro-duction and employment records that early "experts" didn't dream were possible. What is the industry's view today on the size of future markets? The answer lies in the vast program of expansion and modernization mod-ernization of the last few years, and in planning now under way for more expansions. This year, automotive output is expected to break all past records. rec-ords. It'll take a decade of abnormally ab-normally high output to replace older vehicles now m use and to meet normal expansion of, markets, industry officials believe. be-lieve. It'l also take competitive selling, constant Improvement in vehicles, and steady discovery of new ways to cut production costs. But that's the way the industry was able to grow to its present size and ifs the way automotive automo-tive companies hope to keep making the forecasters revise upward their estimates on how many people will own motor vehicles ve-hicles in the years ahead. |