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Show CONFUSION AMONG BIG RETAILERS A fairly active summer caused many of the nation's major retail establishments establish-ments to conclude that consumer buying was not being seriously curtailed cur-tailed by the recession and the consequent con-sequent increases in unemployment. With release of August figures on total sales, however, there was general disappointment among the leading chains. Sears, Roebuck, the nation's biggest, reported the fifth consecutive month of declines, and made no comment at the time on its 1.1 percent year-to-year drop for the month of August. Some of the top retailers did have plus signs flying for that month before Labor Day and the start of schools in most areas, but many of the gains were substantially sub-stantially below the usual rate for that time of year. Not surprisingly, the first two weeks of August were least rewarding, while pre-school advertising and widespread promotions provided more impetus during the third and fourth weeks. Even with that push, however, Woolworth's 5.4 percent advance in August was not only the smallest in four months but was also well below the estimated inflation rate of 7 percent for general merchandisers. Montgomery Ward reported that its total sales were at just about the same level they were in August 1979. Almost none of the most sizable retail stores had anything good to say about the overall situation in August. A FEW BRIGHTER SPOTS Sales for J.C. Penney managed to break out of the 1-3 percent range of several months, but chalked up only a 4.3 percent increase. A gain was registered in August sales for Federated Department Stores, with the 8.8 percent improvement somewhat better than that in July. Unseasonably warm weather in many sections of the country hurt retailing to a considerable degree, probably having an especially unfavorable un-favorable impact on fall clothing. There were also reports of a marked lag in the turnover of major appliances and other big-ticket items. The disheartening showing prevalent in August left many retail executives extremely uneasy about the consumer psychnlody and. hence, about (he outlook for fall and early winter buying A leading chain official on the West Coast warns that September should be carefully watched since he I eels thai it will give the first real idea of what consumer spending patterns will be like this autumn. Actually, while he does not anticipate any new weakening in sales volume, the slower rate of spending is not likely to change quickly. As a matter of fact, it would appear that a good many retail chain executives feel that consumer buying is on a more or less sidewise plateau and may not move much above it for some time to come. IMPACT ON RETAIL STOCKS If there is uncertainty among retail officers and management planners, there apparently is almost as much among investment analysts who are trying to guess w hat the future is for the big retailers' stocks over the period ahead. While there is some division among them, few indeed look for any early runaway for retail issues because of the muted outlook Their view is based on mild improvement beginning in employment and consumer confidence, con-fidence, with likelihood of resulting gains for chain store turnover Few . however, are forgetting that we do still seem to be in a recession, even though many are of the opinion that it is already bottoming out Others, tveause of the existence of the recession and its influences. think that store managements in general are more optimistic than they should be. Even observers who look lor persistent weakness for a while in retailing expect a considerable rebound of holiday buying as Christmas approaches. ap-proaches. This is interesting only Irecause many predicted a sharp improvement im-provement in pre school buying, but in most places it was not all that profitable. It remains to be seen, say many, whether the Christmas buying season will also Ix' a disappointment |