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Show Economic Committee doesn't agree with Reagan's predictions ' Washington In his press conference last week, President Reagan crowed about the turnaround in the nation's economy. Government economists' new figures, he said, show an annual growth rate of 5.5 percent in the gross national product. But soon the headlines will tell a different story. The Joint Economic Committee on Capitol Hill will announce an-nounce some figures of its own and they don't agree with Reagan's rosy prediction. The committee will explain that much of the GNP's growth in the second quarter of this year was caused by the refilling of inventories. Businessmen Busi-nessmen had let their stocks dwindle during the recession. The upshot is that the real economic growth rate is only 2.5 percent for the second quarter. The committee report will point out that this is just about what the annual growth rate was when President Reagan took office. In other words, the economy may have turned around, but it's still only back where it was when Jimmy Carter left town. White House sources tell us, mean- -while, that there's a new version of an old idea floating around the Executive Mansion that supposedly would bolster . the economy. It's a scheme to levy a three or four percent national sales tax on all goods, and it's being discussed at the highest levels of the administra-. tion. Previous presidents have referred re-ferred to this as a "value-added tax." Some of the president's economists believe that a national sales tax would accomplish two important goals. First, it would discourage consumption and thus reduce the flood of manufactured goods coming into the United States ' ' from abroad. Second, by raising I prices, that tax would encourage Americans to spend less and save more. This should make available more dollars for emerging industries to borrow. Consider just one statistic: Total savings in the United States is about 6 percent of the national income; in Japan, it is about 20 percent. Don't expect to hear a public announcement on the national sales tax proposal anytime soon, however. This is because it is a political hot potato and, our sources say, the administration won't pursue it actively until after the 1984 elections. The Castro puzzle: Intelligence analysts who watch Cuban dictator Fidel Castro are puzzled by recent changes in his behavior. The dossier on Castro reveals that he has always been a heavy smoker, a big drinker and a womanizer. But lately he has cut back on these vices. He's even reduced consumption of his trademark: Havana Ha-vana cigars. ' . , v Although the intelligence analysts are. perplexed iby Castro's change in r lifestyle.";they don't think he has changed his trouble-making ways. Top-level Reagan administration officials of-ficials who have read the intelligence reports believe that Castro is actively fomenting revolution throughout Cen- . tral America and especially in El Salvador and Guatemala. Nor do these officials believe Castro when he says he wants to improve relations with the United States. Polish policy: During Pope John Paul II's recent visit to Poland, various U.S; intelligence agencies monitored his every move.. The reason: They wanted to sed how Poland's military government reacted to the papal , presence, Any hints that the generals .might' relax their iron grip on the Polish people could spark changes in U.S. policy. For,tbe past few months, a lop secret inter-agency group made up of officials of-ficials from the CIA, the Pentagon and the White House has been discussing exactly what the administration should do about the Polish situation. Some officials are pushing for a relaxation of sanctions against Poland and will cite the successful papal visit to support their viewpoint. Other members of the group have argued strongly that the United States should throw all its support behind the outlawed Solidarity union movement. Headlines and footnotes: From Nicaragua, our associate Jon Lee Anderson reports that Eden Pastora the famous "Commander Zero" will temporarily abandon his battle against the forces of the leftist regime and . begin a fund-raising effort. He will leave behind an internal espionage structure that will stay in place until his return. Many of his soldiers have been instructed to bury their weapons ; and blend into the ranks of regular , civilians. We recently acquired some FBI records which reveal that the bureau arbitrarily labeled actor Henry Fonda -a communist. The only evidence to support the charge was a document signed by Fonda, and others, denying the accusations. The FBI's reckless Red list also featured Frank Sinatra, Lucille Ball and Marlon Brando. Federal budget cutbacks have crippled small solar energy research firms, setting back the Energy Department's solar goals at least a decade. Experts now believe the United States will lose its dominant position in the area of solar energy by 1990. Japan's solar industry, which receives substantial government support, sup-port, is expected to flourish. ? 1983 United Feature Syndicate, Inc.. |