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Show . tl Av The Salt Lake Tribune. Sunday. March of aW nalysis Seeing By Steven P. Ro.xcnfeld Assoeiuted Press Writer N'EV 0 K With a pickup in sales by retailers, (b lirst decline in wholesale prices in six years and a slht slowing of the rate of business failures, .niilysts and businessmen expressed optimism this p;iet week that the economy is beginning to emerge rom recession. .Lint uncertainty continues about the course of intfEjest rates. borrowing costs must recede from current lofty levels before consumer spending and business investment pick up, economists say. Otherwise a recovery could be aborted. "The latest economic indicators raise hopes that the worst of the recession is over and that a recovery could get under way in spring or early summer." according to economists at Morgan Guaranty Trust iho nation's fifth largest bank. 'But the bank's monthly analysis adds: Recent brightening in the outlook should by no means occasion unbounded optimism. Recovery seems destined to proceed at a slow pace as compared with the early stages of a normal recovery." A 1 I Morgan Guaranty projects the inflation-adjuste- was the first decline since February The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 1.6 percent in February, reversing a 1.5 percent deline in January. Part of the turnatxmt uas attributed to milder weather in February following severe storms in the first month of the year. The department also said U S. Businesses reduced their inventories of unsold goods by 0.4 percent in January billowing a 0 7 reeord-lug- )erccnl reduc- tion in December. With inteivst rates high, businesses cannot afford to keep large inventories Those inventories must be nxluced lief ore businesses increase production and recall idled workers Economist Robert Sinclie at the investment firm of Bear, Steams & Co. says he expects a major reduction of inventories in the current quarter. SMALL BUSINESS ACCOUNTING SYSTEM II 2 I 19H2 For WVrk Members leading to unproved employment and increased qionding Hiwer lor workers ' Current l.v signs of bottoming are spreading through the economy with an upswing in economic )erformance clearly within reach." Sinche says The National Association of Purchasing Management. representing business executives who buy raw materials for industrial companies, reixirted a slowing of the rate of decline in the economy. of the Multi- ple Listing Service of the Salt La ke Board of Realtors reported sale of 129 properties for $10.23S,762 during the week, Richard 1. Ixiard WikkI. presi- dent. said The Iniard said 102 residential properties sold lor $7.(i74,(iK3. Opsncm for 36 months guaranteed. " " !t 'p'.i i' and earn l 't fOu r . At i!t1 A ; ti rKy f a" !r.T " ' J;y .( ' T i 'u 1, t1 ; r i , , l. .4 vh j' ,iT r d gross national product will rise at an annual rate of about 3 percent in the initial quarters of the coming expansion, compared with a usual recovery pace of 5 percent to ti percent. GNP measures the value of all goods and services produced by the economy. Among the bright spots in the economy this past week was a Labor Department reort that wholesale prices, as measured by the Producer Price Index, fell at an annual rate of 1.7 percent in February. It down interest rates and spur consumer buying tu help fuel an economic recovery. tilling t. Vnl tv Sales I KpooegiAri ItV'U'UOGlVll I and 197(1, 6Mon4hC 0 Complete System a sign of the severity of the recession. An unwinding of inflation, it is hoped, will bring Our Most Popular Business High-Spee- Enjoy timely financial statements with computer accuracy! Just add our accounts receivable, inventory, pay- Model II TRS-8- 0 Arco Credit Cards Aceepted by Gulf 64K Computer 132-Colu- d, Line Printer VI and other programs. roll Uses Ready-to-Ru- n Accounting Software - Gulf Oil Corp. last week PITTSBURGH (API united customers of Atlantic Richfield Co., whose credit cards will become invalid April 15, to temporarily use their Arco cards at Gulf stations and then apply for Gulf credit. Arco announced last week that it would liscon-tinu- e credit card sales because of their high cost. The Los Angeles-basecompany has issued 3 million cards. Abandoning credit cards will save it $73 million a year. Arco estimated. Gull, meanwhile, said it is actively seeking new credit card accounts. The company said Arco customers will be able to use their Arco cards at participating Gulf stations until April 30. 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