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Show TO. Utilities Overcounted Future Demand For Electric Power (Editors Note: Consumers face rapidly rising electric bills as a result of decisions made by e,ectnc utilities and their slate regulators over the last decade This report looks at the unanticipated slowdown in growth of electrical demand ) By Terry Atlas Oiicagd Tribune Write r A decade ago, Unmmiinwialth Edison Co. juxtibul plans to build its Byron nuclear sla'ion in north central Illinois with a prediction that jxak demand would double within the decade. II was Ix'tiing on growth that didn't come. The Chicago ulility told the Illinois Commerce Commission that leak deni. mil wjs expected to swell lo 2L2RI megawatts by two, making construction ol By roll essential ii northern Illinois were to have adequate electriciol that ty. In lint, only growth materialized, and peak demand 22N megawatts. m 1WO was just It is not an isolated ease. The nations investor-owneclcitnc utilities tar ovei estimated the rate of growth in electric- - demand and launched a costly const ruction program that has lelt some companies luiancially overextended. Now, ratepayers lace rising electric bills to pay lor new generating stations not yet needed and. in some instances, lo pay for plants that were planned but then cam eled. tion. It v.as the irgest number ol plant cancellations ever recorded in a single year. "Bui lor the tmaneial weakness, a numlxr ol the plants that have been canceled would have been allowed to proceed." says Douglas C Bauer, senior vice president ol the Edison Elect ru Institute While the industry continues to prelect a growth in demand ol .1.5 pel cent a year. Wall Street analysts such as Ernest S Liu ol Holdman Sachs it Co I akc jlalt (Eributif one-quart- 1 d Vanglm Ki iggs - Pulsipher, standing, and Garth were two of four founding partners retirement park concept. Their first Golden Living Center was oened in 1!)77. in a I- Today, the two. in partnership, have six centers located in Utah, Idaho. letin Many factors, including wishful (linking, came into play to make Ihe industry's projections wrong. The main I actor, however, was the oil crisis ol Ihe I'll its. which raised luel costs tor utilgics burning oil. coal and natural gas Fuel costs plus higher operating costs tiecausc ol worsening inllation were passed on to customers in the lorni ol more costly electricity, and iiu-n- t Good Business in Golden Years original company included in its portday as pm t of Ihe rental folio the previous commercial ventures The hotel is m and later commercial ventures ol Mr. lav or ol the concept being dropped lirst ihiee, which, accoid Olpin and Mr. Dixon. ing to the tastes ol the i ustonicrs. oiler a measure ol independence or communSeparate Activities ity. For example, Ihe rentals units Two years ago, Mr. Olpin and Mr. include lunch each day at the communiDixon separated their aetivitives from the eoiporation. taking most of Un- ty center as well as participation in a variety ot recreational aitivities commercial properties. I)r. Pulsipher and Mr. Briggs retained most ol the That assures the occupants will have Holden Diving Center proHTtics, which an adequate diet as sometimes now account lor about !H) percent of overlooked by oldsters and a chance their activity. Till1 retirement center to social)!, according to Dr Puls, pin r activities are now under a holding I Other Projects company called Autumnwest Corp. The has lour other projects in linn Under that is Holden Living Centers construction at Salt Lake City. Logon. Management Co. and Autumn DevelopSt Heorge ami Las Vegas. ment and Construction Co. As such. Autumnwest reckons itsell 'Holden Living applied to the lirst centers, however, but was no longer the largest ol its kind in the Iiitermoun-taArea. Its Las Vegas project, which used in subsequent developments. The reason Holden Living had a rather w ill provide in units, will be unique in that area patrouiing implication to those its message was aimed, according to Dr. the Basically, savs Dr. Pulsiphc r. who is II concept serves the active retire vs. And not a function ol Hence, less spccihc but pleasant age is ceHainlv " Residents range lrom .'Vi to sounding nomenclature is applied to "aitivilv Hi. other sites e.g. "Highland Cove I'ast and "Highland Cove South. Apartment and cottage dwellers must meet certain physical standards. Ii Retirement ('enters People who need constant care or are in wheelchairs are are not admitted. Nor The lirm now has six retirement centers one in Kexhurg, Idaho, lour in are the senile, since it is lockonod they would lie lx Her served by nursing Salt Lake City, and one in Provo. homes. These have a imputation ol about 500 Basciallv. the retirement center conand generate an annual gross ol about cept is addressed to mid. He income $5 million, according to Dr Pulsipher. Kaili otters housing alti motives since costs (or apartments or cottages range Irom Irom about ipi.'ign to $H.b0 a ranging Irom apartments to "cottages person to condominiums. Ail earlier concept ( included a ' hotel tvpe ol arrangecourse, the old axiom that two can ment' which provided three meals a live cheaper Ilian one still applies The li Robert H. Woody Triliinie Business Editor Oiho upon a lime H5 was old. You would out Iasi loijg heyoiul that ape, molding to the actuarial tallies Fiiision and insurance pl.ins were m arcd to that tact ot Ide. and death. more. Betti edict, medic me. heart ss sup.' cry mi all more live on c r a n d tti r No M ia . 1 F u r t h e r . though Aincrica fi is an essential-young siiula-Jlon- . the avcia.ee 4 e is a a.sum f; In the Moils, juire tlian halt ol nuricans were i i; to the baliy hooni ider u ? i.d lolowod thanks World War II Now many $1 the post war babies are well over fd. find they are liav me lower cluidren turn their parents i if Pul.-ipbe- r, The coniine change m population J protile was apparent a decade ago to S' a ue.hu L. lulsipher illi I) edneation-w- l and medical administration. Umvi r Iitv ol UtalP f. J lie had been an administrator at the ol Utah College ot Medicine J nduivirsitv was later involved in a stud.v ol Jlcalth care in the hospitals 'c tc rails Adininistra-- Comfort. Independence Jfll pcele were living longer, he jl asonecl. they would eventually want a ton me eiivnonmuit that prov ided V'lololt. the possibility ol social Ido. jjrot nidi pcndcncc. In lilackioot. Idaho. &' me i a doctor who had established the rioldi n Retm nn nt Center. The idea JJ cost lor a iai tiler is $175 a month. Thus, two sharing a unit cut their individual costs lo$l7 Utility charges are extra. Residency statistics retlect that tin lure ol the human cxpi rienie: Filly peri cut ol the units are occupied by 25 percent couples ami 25 x.rccnt by widi iwers. The emphasis is on health, not "icknexs savs I)r. Pulsipher. The uatuie ol residency invites a person to be more precoecupied with health lather than aches and pains, since disability could mean transfer to a nursing home. Those include loss ol control ol bladder or bowel limction, inability to teed or clothe one's seH. or loss ot sociability. The structure and operation tend to prov ide physical and social stimulation that allays many ol these ailments. F.xercise, soc iahation. adequate diet extend health anil vitality noted Dr. PulIsolated oldsters sipher. tend to dwell upon ailments as an attention-gettindevice, and use visits to the doctor more lor sorelv needed psychological rathe r than physical needs It has done leasiblllty studies in several U. S. eitu s. he said, with the aim of opening two retirement centers g a year Financial Problem'. However, the big problem these days is tmancc Banks and savings and loans which prov idld the ot lginal source ol linance. See Page t. Column 1 Usury Ceilings May Dry Up Credit tmilnaied not only hoiiMnv! and meals "ldestvle as well That was the ginning ol the 'iictiri men! 1aik J'oncep! March H, 19S2 ecl ion It Page Hi I Slmt U) mid l)m ii lli Sunday Morning. Second of a Scries predict demand growth ol no more than 2.5 pet eciit nationwide and eonsidera lily less in slower-growtregions ol the Tint country such as the Midwest percent age point gap in projections could make the dillercnce hetvvein eiiouth generating capacity in Ihe BfHis and electric shortages Some people warn ol supply problems il savings Horn conservation tail to materialize or demand grows laster than expected. Willi the long lead limes lor construction years lor nuclear decisions made today and six for eoal won't be rcUecled until the 1'1Hls. However, a recent report by the Department ol Energy projected adequate electric supplies at least throueh l!ri5. (tispi'e the linaucial constraints on electric utilities. It noted, though, that the financial condition ot many East Coast utilities had slowed their conversion Irom oil to eoal. a luel switch that would save ratepayers hundreds of millions of dollars a year Nationwide, the industry currenUv has excess gener.it ing capacity ol in percent, twice the salety margin needed, and industry projections ol future need are met with considerable skepticism alter past forecasts proved h 1 rising electric rates have had a dampening ctiect on the rate of growth in Ihe nations appetite lor electricity From l'Hill through l'JT.i. demand lor electricity grew at an annual rate ol 7.25 percent, rcqiiiiing utilities to double their generating capacity every 10 years. Since then, though, the rate1 ol growth has lallen by ball nationwide and the depressed economy has resulted in some utilities actually selling less electricity last year than the year be! ore The sudden slowdown in growth caught both the industry and regulators by surprise. Worse, the companies were in the midst ot heavy spending tor new nuclear units ust as il became questionable how nun h was really needed lor Ihe lullin. Utility managements put on a brav e trout, but I suspect that many were sorry tliev ever started their nuclear prelects." s;is utility analyst Leonard S Hyman ol Merrill Lvnch Fierce Fenner & Smith Inc Start up dates lor many new units, including Commonwealth Edison's Byron station were pushed back a year or more', and last year alone, plans lor 17 nuclear units and five coal-fireplants were dropped altogether by companies betting on slower growth and increased reliance on conservation rather than const ruc d cash-strappe- so . Yoik 1ublic Service Com mis!. Larkin, chaira national task torec of state man regulators studying the tmaneial conch turn ol electric utilities, suggests regulators and industry executives are trying lo cope with current financial on tlie problems by putting "Band-Aid- s situation" and ignoring longer term needs tor new generating plants. "How' do you sell new construction in the taee ol excess capacity today ?" lie asks. New sion member Edward Further, the events at Three- Mile Island did much to turn the industry away from nuclear energy. Not a single new reactor has been ordered in the llnee years since events at TMI brought to life many ol the worst tears See Page Column cr v J&ut a i The lour loiinding pari nil's were Dr Julsiper. (iarth 1'.. Briggs. C.crald pipm and Herald Dixon . 7 Dr Iulsiplic r and Mr Buggs ottered j. pvuiagcmcnt and accounting service Mi. (dpi n and Mr Dixon piovnled the $h v elopment expel icnce r Ihs tirst JL life lied III ' nicr (iolden Lav ing Cc 77 at i 701 S 2011 Wist In a time ot high NFW YORK iAP interest rates and contradictory laws troin state to state, ceilings on loan interest rates may tic hindering, not helping consumers by making credit less av ailable A study by the Federal Reserve Bank ot Chicago says that while usury ceilings may piotect consumers from exorbitant Ixnrowing costs, they can also dry up credit, particularly tor and high-risIhirrowers. and may hinder competition in the credit Inal kets Its study Hu the r savs Interest ceilings have encouraged k was For purHises ol di mon-tiuttin.ni fial and operational experience, the i lenders to "ration credit through higher down pay incuts, shorter maturities and serhigher lees for related vices. thus elfectivelv increasing the cost ol credit. The lack ol uiulornnty ol usury laws across states has distoited credit tlovvs and economic activity, causing dispropoi Donate hardship in stales w ith rigid regulations." Theoretically, a usury ceiling is a form ol price control. It establishes a price -legal maximum interest rate that can lie chargell lor a loan. Anil when tile limit is below the rate that would lx1 established in an unregulated non-cred- it market, the ceiling i said to be binding, or clleclive. Clearly, lenders are not going to he very successful il they make loans at lower rales than it costs them to attract lunds. Thus, they likely will not make them at all. The result' Consumers are protected Irom high rates, but no credit is available. elaborating on its credit rationing conclusion, the Fed says usury ceilings encourage lenders to adopt such strategies as short maturity mortgage loans, larger minimum sies lor personal loans and higher lees lor c hccking accounts and mortgage appraisals. 395.03 Purchase a 61 AIR COMPRESSOR DISTRIBUTOR CLEARANCE SALE V i With 5 H.P. on 80 J Manual Machine REALTY WORLD gcil ll tank Receive 10 Certificate Rates Passbook Convenience ml , Kroy J Sale Price r 1,450 FBL5E3JT! ;' ph. Typediscs FREE & 1 dust cover. Value of 293.70 V Lettering Machine REALTY WORLD i MANSELL See the remarkable ASSOCIATES 5G6 - 3945 973-084- 5 O O Interested in a stock paying 1 54 KROY TYPE 61 lettering machine. Just turn the typedisc and push a button. Out comes quality type on transparent tape. Peel the tape from its backing and position wherever you want it. It's that easyl o Dividend? 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