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Show Review of the Week ' r In Finance and Trade By Ira C. Tichenor THROUGHOUT the discussions as to the effect that will be produced upon various industries as the result of peace, now a most gratifying fact, the oil industry is the only Pe about which no doubt has been expressed. It has been unanimously conceded that the use of 'oil will increase, in-crease, rather than diminish, following the close of the world war,. This view was expressed in this column weeks ago, upon the ap- : pearance nf thi- firtt ray nriinp fnr 'anerTye nriin nf the great struggle In behalf of the liberty of the world. Predictions were made then that as a result of the assured continued increase in oil as a fuel oil securities would be chief among the leading "peace stocks." For some time the more important im-portant investment houses have been advising their customers to purchase oil securities at the prices then and now prevailing and hold them for the assured great advance when normal peace conditions should return to the world. It has been known that "for several months English investors have been absorbing oil stocks, with the confident expecjations of '. an immense advance as the result ol the iucrcasej use oi peirulcuni and gasoline for domestic purposes following the war. ""NE of the most interesting analyses of investment conditions V as pertaining to oil was thai by the Wall Street Journal, in nhi.-h it was HpflarfH that "tlif war it tvinjr fnnrht nil f;(nr and oil gasoline in the air and oil at sea. The force that is deprived de-prived of them is beaten just as surely as though deprived. of ammunition am-munition and food. That makes oil a war investment. "But what of it as a peace investment? When the war is over it seems probable that no industry will so easily accommodate itself with practically automatic readjustment to the conditions of ' rebuilding a wrecked world and rearranging the economic dislocations. disloca-tions. It is the opinion of experts in this industry almost without exception that when the war ends the activities of reconstruction may perhaps permit the restoration of reserves now being heavily drawn upon, but will surely go ahead so rapidly as to prevent any glut such as was at one time feared. "As a background let us consider some of the recent statistics. United States is now producing about 960,000 barrels of oil a day. Mexico is producing 140,000 barrels a day. The allies are now using oil at the rate of 1,200,000 barrels a day. Here is a steady depletion of the reserves of 100,000 barrels a day. The home and foreign consumption of gasoline amounts to 194, 00.0 barrels a day. Our production, try as hard as we can to force it, is 1 9 1, 000 barrels a day. The surplus reserves of the country cannot stand such a drain very long. It means greater production' or higher prices. w IN UISCUSSIMi the qucstiuw o) the InglcasdJ U!e. uf nil is Hie result of the construction of shipping which contemplates the use of oil as a fuel, the same authority declared that "it may. be true that many of the gas engines now engaged in driving machines against the enemy will be idle, but the necessity for motor transport in France will be increased many fold, in bringing the armies to points where they will await embarkation; their supplies must be moved; their equipment must be moved, and above all things the ruined section of France must be restored. A naval officer of long experience recently expressed the opinion t'.iat the navy would be kept up to its full strength in ships and men for full two years after peace was signed, because it will have to play an important part in bringing back the several millions of men we have sent to France It took the UnitetLStatei .nineteen months, working with feverish haste, to get 2,000,000 men to France. It will take much longer to get them home again. "The oil companies are striving now to supply enough crude oit tcrtftve thtrshipsnf ihe "navies -and of thenew merchant fleets.-Nearly fleets.-Nearly every new ship launched now burns oil as a fuel. The building of merchant ships will not cease with, the signing of peace. Jt will go on just as though there were no 'peace, because the demands of commerce will be unprecedented. With all the activities activi-ties of the allied shipyards, the tonnage of the allies in merchant shipping is less than it was in August, 1914. Where one ship is needed now, three will be needed to meet the needs of the world's commerce in peace. The shops of the whole world are stripped of commodities which enter into general commerce. For more than two years there has been no nonessential war industry permitted per-mitted to operate in England, France or Italy. That means that manufacturing in these countries has been at a standstill except for war supplies. The countries which then turned to the United States have been unable to supply their wants from this country first, because the United States itself had begun to slide to a war basis in manufacturing, just as the allies had, and in the second place, there were no shops. "It is the oil-burning ship now being built fur the merchant service in the yards of this country which will soon be racing over the seven seas to supply the world deficit of manufactured articles. To meet the requirements of these markets, nil and gaoline will be used in constantly increasing amounts." " x """ H E question of the stimulation of oil production also is being I "discussed by newspapers and trade journals generally throughout through-out the country. When the quotations for crude oil in the various oil fields were fixed by the oil director of the fuel administration after consultation with oil producers of the various districts, it was understood that the schedule would be adhered to until November l.j It was expected that during that time there might be discovered reasons for modifying or changing some of the prices. Apparently such a condition has not arisen, according to the Oil City Derrick, as A. C. Bedford, chairman of the national petroleum petro-leum war service committee, notified the various chairmen of the subordinate committees that it had been decided to continue the prices for another three months from November I. This action I was taken with the approval of Mr. Requa, oil director. It means that there will be no change in the price for crude oil at the wells during the next three months, but the old quotations will be maintained. main-tained. To the Eastern producers this was. rather a disappointment, disappoint-ment, as they had hoped for some increase. Operations during the last five months in the Eastern fields have not resulted in any increase in-crease of production. Rather there has been a decrease, notwithstanding notwith-standing operators have been as busy as possible under the conditions condi-tions confronting them. No new. fields have" been discovered and the run of completions has been very light.' There is nothing that would stimulate producers to greater exertions but higher prices, and it is doubtful if even that, would bring any addition to the output. The oil fields are pretty well drained and nothing but wildcat wild-cat operations can be expected to increase the production, and where new pools can be obtained is a great uncertainty. In the Western fields from Montana south to the gulf, there are great p . opportunities for the oil pioneer, and these would.be taken advan-- advan-- tage of more earnestly if higher prices prevailed. The producer j of Wyoming would also be encouraged if the government shewed more intent to assist instead of hindering his efforts. The with-1 drawal of oil lands in that state has checked operations and caused operators to lose heart. They cannot credit the government with being consistent in its demands for more petroleum, and then withdraw with-draw the most promising oil lands from development. IT IS declared- by the same paper that the hope for an increase in the petroleum output of the United States rests on the development develop-ment in northwest Texas, where the outlook is said to be most favorable. - While this Joubtle is true as to tlii immediate increase in production, it is confidently believed that Wyoming and Utah, regardless re-gardless of the withdrawal of promising oit lands and the failure of congress to pass the oil land leasing bill, will contribute not a little to the petroleum output of the country. It is generally believed that the oil boom in Utah, while seemingly seem-ingly delayed by unforeseen conditions, is absolutely assured. Development De-velopment work now is in progress in various parts of the -'state, and with the brfnging in of the first big producer will inaugurate a boom that will be lasting apd of material importance to the industry as a whole and with particular refrrctH4 to the prosperity of Utah. ' . ' . . . |