OCR Text |
Show Bank Study Shows Strong Economy The Twelfth Federal Reserve District economy at the end of 1949 is in a stronger position than had been generally expected expect-ed earlier in the year, the Federal Fed-eral Reserve Bank of San Francisco Fran-cisco reported this week. The district served by the bank includes the states of Califonia, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and a portion of Arizona. While there has been no return re-turn in most cases to high 1948 levels, employment and other indicators of economic activity turned upward in the spri.n g, following the business decline on a broad front whiclK began in the latter part of 1948. The bank pointed out, moreover, that in contrast with the end of 194B, there is little evidence at this year end of any significant weakening in demand. Employment, which turned upward in March, continued to rise at a moderate but steady pace through September. The effects of several work stoppages stop-pages and a seasonal decline in canning caused a moderate drop in nonagricultural employment in October, with probably not much variation thereafter in November and December. Agricultural Agri-cultural employment has fallen off steadily since September. November employment in the district was only a little over i percent less than last year, but with growth of the labor force through in-migration and natural increase, unemployment in November 1949 was about 40 percent higher than in November No-vember 1948. Although the number of jobless will grow as seasonal cutbacks in agricultural agricul-tural employment take place, accompanied by usual declines in lumbering and food processing, proces-sing, it is not anticipated that this winter will be as severe as last, when unemployment doubled dou-bled between November 19 4 8 and February 1949. Even though business continues con-tinues at a more or less stable or even moderately increasing rate, the bank concludes in its analysis, unemployment will be sufficiently large to cause considerable concern, with seasonal sea-sonal decline during the winter months adding substantially to the problem. |