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Show REZDV CONTINUED policy meetings on how to deal with he new, sometimes puzzling Carter Administration in Washington. He showed visible signs of severe fathree-da- y tigue and disorientation during a visit to Paris last June to meet with President Giscard d'Estaing. French American sources said that he was lookk ing "very, very tired." But after a rest upon his return to Moscow, the No. 1 man in the Soviet government two-wee- emerged showing spurts of renewed vigor. Because of the limitations of age and health, however, Brezhnev increasingly runs the seething Soviet enterprise from a glass bubble. The other five members of the Kremlin's Big Six, though in reasonably good health, have also been slowed by geriatric realities. Of the eight lesser members of the Arvid Pelshe, Politburo, chairman of the party control commitnext cantee, appears to be the lik didate for a state funeral. As far back as 1971, Washington observers felt his days were numbered when his Ogonyok birthday photograph depicted a caman. daverous, hollow-cheeke- d The eventual departure of Brezhnev undoubtedly will touch off a Byzantine struggle for power inside the Kremlin. No clear line of accession to the Soviet pinnacle has ever been established. Even the filling of lesser vacancies, which is expected soon in the Politburo, l.t that can turbulence or tranquillity on the will create policy shifts spell inter- national front. Because of the conservatism of the Politburo, the most likely person to step into Brezhnev's shoes would be the Kirilenko. But he would be strictly an interim leader while the rival factions maneuvered for position. The one who would rise to the top probably would be Fyodor Kulakov, the Politburo's chief of agriculture. He usually winds up in charge of the Kremlin during the absence of those above him in the hierarchy. He has the advantage of coming from the Republic of Russia, where he has the backing of the largest Communist Party organization in the Soviet Union. He has a good position in the power structure, keeps a low profile and enjoys good health. Kulakov's shortcomings There is one drawback to Kulakov's chances, however. He is experienced solely in the field of agriculture. Traditionally, the ruler of the Russian roost has had an industrial as well as agricultural background. Additionally, Kulakov is totally lacking in knowledge of foreign affairs, and it would take some time before he could establish himself as a leader in Big Power dealings. For these reasons, experts believe that if a Kulakov regime should come to power, it would operate as a collective leadership at the start much as the troika arrangement of Georgi Malenkov, Lavrenti Beria and Vyacheslav Molotov held uneasy sway after Stalin's demise. But in general, a Kulakov selection would signal a continuance of Brezhnev's policies. A dark horse in the sweepstakes would be Kirill Mazurov, 63, a top lieutenant to Kosygin. There are signs that Mazurov's red star is in the ascen-danc- y. Ordinarily, his Belorussian birth would handicap him because the Soviets tend to choose either a Russian or a Ukrainian for the top Kremlin post. But if an ethnic deadlock developed between these two predominant nationality blocs, a Belorussian like Mazurov would become an attractive compromise candidate. Because of two years' service in the ranks, he would be acceptable to the Red Army. He also fought with Belorussian partisans behind the German lines in World War II. This gives him a Mother Russia image. And Mazurov has had broad experience in the two vital Soviet fields of industry and agriculture. But if the struggle for the throne should reach the stage, experts are keeping an eye on Grigory Romanov, 54, Leningrad party boss. He is regarded as the most ruthless of the rising leaders. He is evaluated as a member of "a new breed tough and able, with a strong sense of defense." The experts anticipate that Romanov not only would be a tough hawk for the United States to deal with but would crack the whip within the miasmic Communist bureaucracy. Romanov is a staunch advocate of streamlined centralized planning a concept most Soviet officials have failed to grasp since the days of the czars. Ministerial mishmash would Romanov Unquestionably, crack down on the mishmash of more than 100 government ministries and independent agencies that create confusion in Sovietland. For example, the minister of metallurgy may construct a factory in the hinterlands without consulting his counterparts responsible for worker housing, schools or transportation. There are two ?oJitional long shots who might compete for Brezhnev's- spot. One is Vladimir Shcherbitsky, the Ukraine party boss, who has no visible claim to power except for close ties with Brezhnev. The other is Vladimir Dolgikh, head of industry in the Soviet Secretariat, who may be riding the crest of the future. He has a reputation as an authority on integrated planning. But power, not planning, is still the name of the game in the Kremlin. non-ferro- P lack Anderson's associate loe Spear assisted on research for this article. With Brezhnev, these men make up the Soviet Big Six ALEKSEI KOSYGIN Chairman of the Council of Ministers and apparently second in command. Though just turned 74, he is still sturdy and goes on long fishing expeditions and arduous hikes with Finnish President Kekkonen. The Soviet Union's chief ideologist is 75 and has been visibly slowing down. He is "the last of the romantic revolutionaries," says a veteran Kremlin-watche- r. "When he goes, there will be no one on the Moscow scene who can interpret the faith like he can." The secretary of the Communist Party in the Soviet Union is also the hardworking chief of industry there. A power behind the scenes, heis 71 but apparently in good health. ANDREI GROMYKO YURI ANDROPOV The Soviet Union's veteran minister of foreign affairs was rumored to have had a heart attack last winter, but his Chief of the secret police, he is the youngest of the Soviet inner circle at age 63. Rumors of a heart attack also circulated about him, but as with Gromyko the experts robust appearance dispelled the reports. He is 68. concluded he had the flu. 19 |