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Show Tin M i to in Bn Okr II 0 by Jack Anderson WASHINGTON, cough that had him holding a handkerchief to his mouth throughout the ceremony. Thereafter, he canceled all appointments and disappeared from public view. He didn't even celebrate his 71st birthday on Dec. 19. Soviet officials assured curious Americans that his illness wasn't serious. Most likely, he was laid low by the flu epidemic, which has affected some 40 million in the USSR this winter. State Department sources are convinced that Brezhnev continued to control Soviet policy throughout his sickness. But they detected a hardening of Soviet attitudes during his absence. They believe he is a moderating influence on the Kremlin hard-liner- s. a fitful D.C. each new issue of the weekly Moscow magazine Ogonyok finds its way into the inner sanctums of the U.S. government, it is seized upon by our Soviet experts. They then examine with magnifying glasses the photos of the Soviet Union's aged rulers. Ogonyok, a popular publication, features photographs of the Soviet Politburo members taken on the occasion of their birthdays every year. To the expert analysts in Washington, each new wrinkle, sagging jowl or hollow cheek may provide a clue to the health of the 14 members of the Kremlin's power elite. The birthday pictures are but bits of a mosaic pieced together to monitor the advancing age and declining health of the Soviet hierarchy. For the average Politburo age is 67, with the most powerful members in their 70's. U.S. experts, therefore, anticipate a complete new order in command of the Soviet Union a few years hence. Bs full-col- or Finger on his pulse Politburo pecking order Vet even a minor change in the peck- order on the reviewing stand at Moscow's May Day parade stirs waves of the speculation in the chanceries-o- f world. So the predicted wholesale rearrangement of the Politburo lineup is raising questions of epic portent. How long will Leonid Brezhnev remain the top man in the Kremlin? Who will succeed him? Will there be a power struggle? And most important of all, will the new leaders change Soviet policy? This much is known: Old age has made the Kremlin leaders conservative and cautious. They hold back from bold gambles; they are slow to respond to changes. This is less likely to be true, however, of the new rulers who will soon take over. They are expected to be more decisive, less sentimental, quicker to adapt and, ominously, harder to deter. Unlike the old crowd, whose moves were inhibited by past Soviet weaknesses, the younger leaders are more conscious of the Soviet Union's power. They probably will be more difficult, therefore, to deal with. Today the power is still concentrated heavily in the six senior Politburo members Leonid Brezhnev, Aleksei Kosygin, Mikhail Suslov, Andrei Kirilenko, Andrei Gromyko and Yuri Andropov. They skillfully survived the Stalin ing 5, Department experts feel he has a moderating influence on Soviet purges, his death and its aftermath. According to one competent source, none is medically threatened with condi"identifiable, tions." But several show their years; they tire easily. A slight bout of flu can keep them bedridden for weeks. hard-liner- s. Unquestionably, Brezhnev dominates the Soviet government. No important policy decisions are reached without his approval. So his health is of chief concern to Washington and the world. late last year he showed up at the funeral of a Soviet marshal, beset with Thus, even a case of the flu for Brezhnev causes tremors in Washington. Those who follow his medical history say he has dangerous circulatory problems; he may also have once suffered a stroke. He sometimes has difficulty walking, and occasionally his speech is slurred. One word invariably trips him up. Embarrassingly for the leader of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, it is "sotsialistichesky" the Russian adjectival form of our word "socialist." Brezhnev is also plagued with a queasy stomach which sends him dashing for the washroom on bumpy plane flights. He is bothered with tooth and gum trouble. For years, he smoked so heavily that he needed daily gum massages by a physician to alleviate a sore mouth. Analysts believe his problems stem from a jaw misalignment. The Kremlin boss has also been obliged to cut back on vodka, which he used to consume with Russian abandon. A few years ago, he sometimes would show up at his office worse for wear after a long night's imbibing. He would seek relief for a throbbing head and morning-afte- r shakes by stopping at a health spa near the Kremlin. The place is known to partying party leaders as "the clinic." There, a steam bath and rubdown by his favorite masseuse usually brought surcease to his hangovers. Last year was a physically strenuous one for Brezhnev. He worked long hours supervising the final draft of a new Soviet constitution. He was also immersed in arduous paperwork and continued |