OCR Text |
Show Farm Prospect Good, But Not Up To 1948 By USAC Extension Staff Looking ahead, agriculture price prospects are good. However, How-ever, the trend of farm prices is downward. Farm prices and cash receipts from sale of farm products are apt to average 10 per cent below be-low the 1948 record. In contrast, farm production costs will decline relatively little. lit-tle. Net income will fall more than cash receipts because of lower prices, continued high costs, and slightly lower production. produc-tion. . .. Most economic gauges point to further declines in employment, employ-ment, consumer incomes and industrial production and prices of industrial goods as well as farm food products. However, nowhere in our economy is there an indication of a sharp drop in prices or a depression. Farm Crops Prices of farm crops will vary with changes in crop prospects until harvest. If growing conditions continue favorable, seasonal increases in marketings of most crops will result in a further downward trend in prices; exceptions to this will be contract crops where price is now set by producer and processor agreement. Wheat Wheat prices will undoubtedly un-doubtedly taper off as the new crop harvest gets unde iv,a n June. Crop prospects are J J good and prices are expected to e below the loan rate much of ""'crops-Feed crop prices too aie expected to decline urther next fall Carry-over stocks are expected o be new record levels. Coup Ung these stocks with expectations of an-other an-other bumper crop, 15" will be second only to last years record. Or, in other words, 1949-50 1949-50 feed supply is expected to be 20 per cent larger than he 1937 41 average. For the livestock producers this will insure fav; orable feed ratios from a leea PTaWelprTces of fed cattle arc apt to drag for at least another mPonih. On April 1, 23 per cent more cattle were on feed in the corn belt than a year ago Then too, cattle are being fed to heavier weights this year. Slaughter weights of cattle averaged av-eraged 37 lbs. more during January Jan-uary to March, 1949, than a year ago. There is a keen demand de-mand now for the small supply of lower grade beef. Fed cattk prices will increase slightly during dur-ing the summer period. However, How-ever, prices of all cattle are expected ex-pected to drop considerably when the heavy grass fat and feeder cattle run gets' underway in October and November. Beet prices will be under consider- . able pressure in October, November Novem-ber and December when the huge spring pig crop moves to market. Likewise, large increases in-creases in broilers and turkeys will also compete with beef for a market. Sheep and Lamb Sheep and lamb prices will undoubtedly remain high in relation to prices of cattle, hogs, and poultry. poul-try. The chief reason is the 6 per cent fewer lambs this year than last and continued reductions reduc-tions in sheep numbers. Prices will decline slowly, however, as the milk fat lamb run gets underway. un-derway. The early movement of California lambs was retarded by dry weather and poor feed. Lambs should be marketed as early as possible. Poultry Poultry prices will be fairly steady during the summer sum-mer in line with recent price drops. Late summer and fall marketing will be large and prices are expected to decline seasonally. Turkey Turkey hatches are large; March hatch was 69 over last year and 47rr more were in incubators on April 1 than a year ago. Indications are that increases in production will exceed the early U. S. D. A. estimates esti-mates of 25 by a large margin. The U.S.D.A. has warned producers pro-ducers about the risk of producing pro-ducing a huge late season crop of birds. Competition from hogs, broilers, and beef should not be under-estimated. Feed Ratios Feed ratios are favorable for livestock and noul- gf6 the seasonal rushes. Feed n li os will be less favorable after ratios v in De , marketings sh. yand&ealsonas the general market demand declines. Over-all market demand is strong and optimism should peivade our thinking. However, fhe downward trend of prices sounds a note of caution. A sound management program will still pay off. , Hogs-Hog prices have undergone under-gone the spring decline and are showing some strength. Heavy hogs hive and will continue to be discounted because of huge lard and vegetable oil stocks and low lard prices. The hog market will strengthen in summer sum-mer months but will undoubtedly undoubt-edly hover near support levels when the heavy hog run gets underway next fall. EggSEgg prices are expected to be steady for a month or so; then prices on better grades are expected to rise during summer and early fall. Government buying will supplement light storage purchases to hold egg prices up. Increased hatches of sexed chicks indicate laying flocks will increase next fall. Consequently, egg production will increase but government price support buying will continue |