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Show IMMINENCE OF GERMAN CRASH REAL MENACE jGibbs Soys It's Time for ! Plain Talk; Teutons Cannot Can-not Pay Now 3 ISSUES AT GENOA Conference Will Fail Unless I U. S. Is Guiding Hand, Writer Thinks (By SIR PKTLIP GIBBS.) ' Jn my opinion there is no doubt at all that tho Genoa conference will de- j ! clde one way or the other whether ESurope and other parts of the world affected by European conditions aro ; going to get a chance of gradual recovery re-covery and renewed vitality under a I policy of peace onclllatlon and eco-nomlc eco-nomlc readjustment, or whether they are going to i- condemned definitely to moral and Industrial disease ena-' ena-' ing in the death of tluir old form of Civilisation. i in again It will b a ; leadership or lack of leadership in the United States Which will hae th Lsun vote In the d clslon "t nTin.e.-i fnte. If America abstains from using Its Immense and decisive influence on the ide of economical and political' , truce, or If it uses Its influence on the ! side Of tho.sf who desire to uphold the present conditions of Europe as ar- j r.'.nged by the treaty of Versailles and) by the passionate intolerance of people j who would rather see Europe wrecked than abate one Jot Impossible claims, then I am afraid we may all resign ; ourselves to a deep-dug ruin TURN s o IT I MI SI I became an optimistic again during dur-ing the progress of the Washington I conference, because I believed and I Mill believe, that it gave to the worifi I for the first time since thre years a I ( definite guidance towards the way o: I restoration and raised the banner of peace and International Justice. The. I spirit of tho Washington meot revived tho hopes of masses of men and wo-i wo-i men in many countries ami especially I I the English speaking peopb s after a long period of disillusionment bonier-' I ing on despair because there seemed , to be no common sense, no attempt j to lighten the burden of military ana naval armaments pressing on as heavily heav-ily after war. and no realism In the handling of world affairs drifting rap-i rap-i Idly to wrack and ruin. The success of tho Washington conference UmKea I in llHr-,m I, : . , mmislc lmt..l in Us abolition of naval competition, I and in its general spirit of guoj will, 'seemed In tho hopes of many of us only tho first step towards a genera ! movement forward, by which we might get away from chnos and the insanity insani-ty of international conflict. The next step undoubtedly must bo a great I conference Of powers to deal with the economic, disaster that has befallen International In-ternational trade, and by oommonj I sensi and practical readjustments to reltalize the purchasing power of oia I markets, to stabilize the money cx-i cx-i change, to restore a more normal ebb and flow of world trade. l VSR IS DIFFIOUIVr The Genoa conference following tnc Cannes conference has the chance ol doing that. It is an immensely difficult diffi-cult task and there Is no magic wana by which tho presenc ruin of many Icounrtlo may b6 transformed into prosperity But It is not beond tne I power of human Intelligence, or ordinary ordi-nary business! ability, so to reshape the economic arrangements of Eutope that In a gradual but effective way the world markets may recover 1 ;.r!i convinced that politics apart hair a doen financial experts In the l niter States. Great Britain. Prance ann Germany would devise a working plan with this result in .1 week ,,f toil ann discussion. But it is utierl essential that to achieve this full result tne Genoa conference should be conducted conduct-ed us a hu.siiiex assembly, dealing with the world's arithmetic a scientists scien-tists interested only in facts and nor cpneerned with questions ( political prejudice. That Is Impossible ut tn. outset owing to the Inherited antago nisn,s of nations and the claims anc counter-claims of justice, punishmem and prestige. Tho next best tir.npj therefore Is that as politics must t,e i mixed up with economics there Bhouial C Continued on I'ajc Twelve.) I GENOA CONFAB IS GIBBS' TOPIC Strong Hand of U. S. Declared De-clared Needed to Prevent Political Crash (Continued from rae One) be an arbitrator powerful enough !n influence to prevent the economic interests in-terests of the conference from being swamped by polltlr-al arguments whIQIl would result In economic futilities. It Is only the United States who could Insist on such a balance. THREE QUESTIONS There are three questions which must be dealt with by the conference In a scientific spirit if Genoa Is not going to be a farce preceding a worldwide world-wide tragedy It look. us If tWO ol thoe questions are already being put outside the discussion The Hist is German reparations, the second is the International debts, and the third is the reconstruction of Russia. If Trance insists and is allowed to prevail pre-vail In her Insistence that German reparations rep-arations shall not be discussed or modified mod-ified and that tho treaty ol Versailles nhall bo accepted as u sacred and unalterable un-alterable law then Genoa will not get down to the root-cause of international internation-al distress in trade conditions. Again if the International debus remain as an unpaid and unpayable mortgage on the future of human Industry, there will be no return to President Harding's Har-ding's "normalcy." Thirdly. Russia with her horror on the Volga, her ln-ilustrlal ln-ilustrlal degeneration, and her standing stand-ing I!ed army must be given economic aid subject to drastic conditions ln- luding demobilization of Red soldiers md Red propaganda, or there will be no chance of recovery of that great trade which formerly flowed ;n and out of tne Russian empire, as part of the life blood of many people. t.KRMAN REPARATIONS Now as regards German reparations the super-lrrltant of Europe It Is well to write plainly, oven at tlv rlslc of offending the strong and sincere sentiment of loyal people and 1 am going go-ing to do so, taking that risk. It Is Mnpo&slblo at the present time for Germany to pay the full measure or indemnities imposed upon her without 'inancial bankruptcy Thai la in-opinion in-opinion at best of many British and Trench financial experts, who are economists eco-nomists and not politicians. It Is possible that at some future time In fifteen or twenty years Qermsny might be able to pay more easily if tier Industrial life Is progressive In i energy. I was convinced during .1 recent re-cent visit to Berlin that Germany's impending bankruptcy is not fraudulent, fraudu-lent, In spite of ertuii. m.-mM" r.i.--Ucs- It is true that many blfj Industrial and financial peopw, ari evading income in-come tax and smuggling their mone) out of German I0UL II IB aitXJ II UC LIIMI .111' 111.1. II body of the German people, including German working men, are taxed t tho utmost limit, amounting to 3i per cent on small Incomes It is certain, cer-tain, beyond any doubt, that If Germany Ger-many Is forced , to continue reparation payments according io the old ruling ..f the supreme council and its reparations repara-tions committee, so that when every uayment became due. she has to buy foreign money with German marks at ft wild rate of exchange 1000 to the English pound sterling when I was last In Berlin a few weeks ago the mark will slump still fun her until It roaches something like 2000 to the fOngllsh pound. .Vow this means two hinga. It means first of all that German Ger-man Industry can only exist on starvation starva-tion wages the slave labor ot German people and secondly that the pron-'icts pron-'icts of German labor will continue t" , undersell American and British goods In every port of the world. It will also mean that if Germany defaults as she is bound to do, France "vlll exact new penalties which may be Just, may be entirely mercenary rom the French point of view, but will keep an open wound In Europe, and prevent any healing spirit fc peace. It is the United states chiefly which must make the decision upon '.his problem. Francs has alread fl -elded. She will wait until fieri . defaults and then rxnrt her new j i lties, securing her hold on tho left bank of the Rhine Great Britain h is also decided, but Is not In a position to enforce her decision against France She has decided that it Is better policy pol-icy for herself first, and for Europe generally, to allow Germany some abatement to encourage her Industrial revival to the point where the mark will rise In value, and not under-cut all competition and to wash out hatred hat-red and vengeance even some claims of Justice Itself for the sake of the peace spirit In Europe. I . s. OAK DECIDE The United States alone ' in the world has the power to decide, because Into which ever seal, of the balance she throws the weight of her influence influ-ence that side will prevail. But, no far as I can make out. tlu leaders and people of the United States aie not ready to make a decision a-s regards re-gards to international debts. Every financial expert In the. United States and Great Britain with whom I have talked, and I have talked with many. Is In favor, theoretically, of a complete "wash-out" all round. This Is not due to altruism or Idealism on their part, but to a conviction that It would restore re-store a more healthy economic state In the world, help to balance budgets, and lead to a renewal of world lr de. Their only objection to the plan Is the present impossibility ot persuading politicians and peoples that it Is good business and common sense. I am not at all sure that the peoples are not ahead of the politicians in coming to this view, which sooner or later Win and must prevail. ( ERK1KG M SSI I As regards Russia I have already written my belief that she holds the key of the world situation If by Imposing Im-posing conditions such as the demobilisation demobi-lisation of the Hod army and the abolition abo-lition of revolutionary propaganda, a combination of powers agreed to give her economic aid there would be a rather rapid revival outside the famine fam-ine area of a great market for manufactured manu-factured goods and of a erf at storehouse store-house of raw materials which the rt : of the world urgently needs. The soviet so-viet government must be recognized and modified. There is no other way of bringing Russia back Into the common com-mon weal. ... The Genoa 'conference will be a ghastly failure If it refuses to recognize recog-nize tho plain facts which I have ventured ven-tured to state with brutal simplicity. And If the Genoa conference fails It will bo the failure of Europe to adopt Its only remedy for a grievous malady f "V.pyrl?ht. 1922. by The MoClure Newspaper Syndicate.) oo Ancient geographer thoUfht Asia lay between Europe and Africa. |