Show PEAR PEAK REACHED IN EXPANSION Observers However Hold H Little Fear of Reaction By STU tilT RT P WE WEST T Special Sp Cial Correspondent of o The han Copyright ht 1923 NEW YORK April 14 The The community this week ha has a passed through varying phases ot of opinion tOO tao business out out- outlook outlook look Tho Those Thone who have been main main- maintaining taming that th the peak ot of o the cx during the last six months month hAS haa been reach reached d found oun some en- en encouragement i n- n for or their i view slew W on the cut In oil prices pries and In the la tte lament ment h b by the Iron trade tIit t new now buying had fallen oft c of or the shortage snort 01 labor abor- abor and partly because I consul ers rs were tilled filled up on their require require- requirement e- e I ments ment I Later on the tho markets were In- In InI I dined to adopt a a more favorable Judgment Overproduction In the tho t oil trade was o ot of course admitted It has been ben known for tor or a long time that the California Call Cornia wells wore nero r t r I I running out-running local demand mand aDd aDd a were ere shipping more and more ot of their supplies to the Atlantic sea sea- seaboard sea In- In Increasing In board Competition has been creasing with th the normal jesuit sult that prices have It hen been en 10 ered f I STEEr But Dut the oil trade represents a unique case Tho The position in other oth o Ind Industries trl s Including steel Is qUite qui to different Tru True stocks which had hadI id I been allowed to run do down n to a minimum during 1921 and the first st halt half ot of 1422 l 2 have been replenIshed n hed Th There re Is no need for tor buyers buy buy- buyers y- y ers to get ct panicky on the sub sub sub- b- b of or future supplies s But while this condition applies to o steel and to mf y my y oth other r lines It does docs not Indicate over oer production n Tho The main point to Is that th hit the only thing which might bring about a serious checkup 01 o commercial buying I li a further ad- ad adVance 3 I vance in prices price and that merchants ts and manufacturers perceiving this th dancer are arc doing th theli thelt ll utmost to lo I avert ert It T ItT TRADE DI rIP 1 Undoubtedly It Is 13 a tact fact act that th trade trado e expansion since the first Bt ot the vear ear had gone as far as lS It Is 13 likely to Steel Stel mil mills unable to get gel their full lull equipment nt ot or workmen are extended to their utmost Wh when R th they Y are arc op operating at 92 to 93 per cent ot of o capacity The Thc woolen mills going 0 over oer r tim time then building trades breaking nil all t records for activity Ity the railroads i carrying the tho largest volume ot of rf traffic C ever er known at this tit Is time or of f the these year ear these and anti many other oth Indications point to the forward orward ii wave nave having approached close to o Lb crest IC o i Rl IG This however Cr Is not to sty Sly by byan y an m mans ans that a serious move move- movement movement ment ot or Is la ImpendIng There Is no r resemblance S to the tl e I conditions ot of three thre sears ears ago when n manufacturers s j generally oe seeing no limit to price e had 0 overstocked their Ir All they they- ha have hae done dono so tar tarIs taris tt ir Is to bring th their lr stocks up to nor nor- normal normal mal with moderate provision provisions for or ir their needs during the next net three e to six months Jt IC prices keep P around the present level th there re is Is no 1 teason ason to anticipate any Im- Im portent falling failing oft off In demand in oth other r wor words the pr present s nt tory volume ot or business so 00 so tar far ar as 13 now appears i is I likely to be bc main main- for some ome time to come I W W tIn VI The main qualification upon op- op or conchi JOs In ns 3 the labor problem Already the tho th 10 lQ and 15 per cent Increase Iner ase 1 In wage wago scales locales announced all 0 t 1 the country during the last few te necks eks has hns cut heavily 11 into the tho th profit margin mar ln o of corn com companies corn as lIS this was calculated up to t n Is not the r a 1 t month ago month ago This for or it will ill III not bo be un unil the tho lat bt late J summer ummer and autumn that the do- do domand mand for laboring nt men n will reach h its height Jon Even novi nou no It Is officially reported re- re reported ported that th the labor supply In th the agricultural regions Is h 10 per p r c cent nt it below n necessity What will 1 ili this thisbe thit a be e when then the han harvest harest et season comas ome s four months from no now 7 1 Who n rs hive ve to bl bid l against the e prices paid common at athe a he manufacturing renters th there re Is Is likely ly to b be an outcry and the pro pro- promoters promoters i- i motors of ot th the restrictive r loon tion laws it is easy as to Ree see will be betho bethe the tho object against which censure bull III ho bO directed DI DISCOUNTS TS cOUl IS The Ike Important Incident of the week was wua the further r reduction or of 49 49 In federal r S rH This This following the decrease ase of previous lous weeks V eKS T nuts 05 Int interpreted to mean that there waI wa no likelihood ot of any Increase yet 0 hilI In rediscount rat rates 9 and the immediate effect was WilS on au all around t concession to borrow borro era HS of ot money a as one one- of ot the principal fears In the lie ot of a month ago ao was measures ot of reo re- restraint re restraint on the part of ot reserve bank this was as as an no encouraging d- d d In the th speculative P e situa- situa situation situation tion At the sam same time lime the th p lP ap apparent parent assurance n that the tendency Y toward rising money rates had for forthe the tho time bring being been checked brought about a steadying tone In Inthe inthe the investment In bond lIot ll t mON PO-mON STRON GrIt Immediate R Regarding the tho street position Uon art tre II III that It Is than It w was two I weeks we k ago and much stronger stroner than I it was a month ago ngo when excite excite- excitement excite I lit m ment nt bad had b been en worked up excite I to n a rise In high pitch over the rapid prices and the tho most moat absurd pre pre- predictions pre predictions dictions were being b made as ns to where stocks were likely to goIn go goIn 0 I In 11 other words P people of ot im- im Im Importance who sold out in the It heat al alor or of the campaign In March hove have been satisfied d to take back bacle a 0 good mAny stocks on the reaction in inthe inthe inthe the closing W weeks ks ot of o last month and th has begun to show itt In the market of ot the last I t fe das daIs |