Show EUROPE HAS DARK Premiers Premier's Talk Is Found Disappointing German Collapse Feared s By STUART P WEST Special of The 1110 Copyright ht 1923 YORK Jul July 14 The Tho two to leadIng questions ons before betor the tho tb finan financial cial markets market here hero are arc What will be the th outcome of ot the tho latest British movement to ottlo the th rep rep- rep rations problem and ind second Are the signs of diminished trade activIty activity ity fly at home merely a natural re- re reaction reaction re reaction action after the th rapid oer-rapid expansion don sion of the Inter Inter months or do they foreshadow something more doI I The much discussed ed speech by bythe bythe byth the ik premier has really realty left the tangle no better oft of C than before Tt It has ha temporarily at least eased the tension bet botnen beten b ti cn en Eng Eng- England land I land nd and rance arising out of ot the tho ear that i In dealing with I Germany Gormany would go to it alone and sol so 80 1 break up the entente But whether I toe tn two governments occupying uch uch different points of view can I each some sante middle ground seems just as doubtful now as it has been I at any time The TIle next bIg bic I develop I develop development ment meet will of course be b GrEat BritaIn's reply to Germany h I Ill nili go co forward ard to the th allied capi- capi capi capitals I isis during the tho coming neck eek cek This may contain some somo pr proposal that I b bo be equivalent to urging both sides de to make concessions to their attitude toward the Ruhr It If this happens It would undoubtedly be by the markets of the tho world M as a ery hopeful stEp something that would enable the lead lead- leaders frs ers on iolli loth sides to back dov down n gracefully from their extreme extreme- 10 po po prepare an prepare the th way for an agreement PA TS GLOOMY PICTURE In the meantime the English premier had painted pO a aery ery sery ery gloomy picture of ot what hat would happen hould conditions go eo es as a they are HIs thesis la is that a ruined Ger Ger- Ger Germany Germany many would be a disaster for tor the there thel re rest t of ot the I he Vo world orld He lIe has said sald th the same thing thine before and ond so have other I statesmen and economic writers There Is no Intention to belittle the I importance of ot German Gennan Collapses cOllapse which might entail a 0 social revo revo- revolution revo- revo revolution revolution I lution and place control of govern govern- government ment In the hands of the reds red govern I Rut But Butone Butone lone one ought not to forget that many manyo lof of those same statesmen were mal mal- malling mak log tho the same sam dire predictions prediction just justat justat justat ling at this time two years ago aro when we we were approaching the th bottom of our prolonged decline It was the fashion then to talk of general Du- Du Ku bankruptcy from bankruptcy from which not even England l was exempted a and nd to prophesy the extinction 1 of ofA I A s merlc foreign trade under the th I of European goods coeds pro pro- pro produced under economic conditions I impossible I for us to meet GERMAN GERL COLLAPSE thoI It I is Vo well ell to remember that the I world did not RO go to plC pieces ee in I whEn the th whole eastern hilt MIt of I Europe had become a negligible I fictor in International trade What would happen now supposing that I Germany were to break down corn com com England wald be b hit In I her coal trade and In other leading hoes France and find Belgium would much more e of theIr upon reparations The Fre French h cannot be mado made to see that their thEr fortunes are ore Interwoven a Ith of and that If IC Germany collapses Industrially and socially tho the hope of collecting rep rep- rep reparations orations adequate to meet the th deficit deficit deficit cit In the French budget would would anish Exactly how would a German rea down with Its attendant con con- con consequences sequences for tor the rest of at Europe react upon conditions here We hate ha seen Been that while our own trade byth hithe has haa been hampered hi bY the dehy In European reconstruction reconstruction tion our foreign commerce commeree hM has ho by byno byno byno no means been bren s swept away as the tho predicted In the th summer slimmer of at 1921 1 21 U S HEH VY t We are arc a heavy creditor and therefore a n European crisis would lint ot threaten as ten years ye-ars ago a aIst aast avast ast recall of foreign n capital 10 inest ed et- et ed cd in enterprise The only other way we Voe could be hurt auld he bo b through loss lots of foreign tr de Out of ot a total of exports from this country In M ML iy only or 7 25 per percent rent cent went to Germany and only 20 20 or 6 C 25 per pr cent to Tranco Sixty per cent was out out- out outside side ildo Ido of Europe altogether I Nobody supposes that happens wo we e would Bould Vo auld lose los our entire commerce with Germany and France but hut If It we did it would moan mean a 0 los loss of 13 G 5 per cent and even with this thi deduction our ex- ex export port ei-port port trade would be far pro pro- pr years To judge the tho he margin which MO e o have hae today it should be that whereas in 1912 1 12 and again In 1911 Hn exports were less thin Ihn 2500 they now are running at the tho rate of t some w 3 3 per annum LULL LULI r IV Jf BUSINESS Returning to ho affairs there has baa been a 0 perceptible slow down mow mow-downIn In business since Cinco the tho th middle of last month ly To somo extent Iy tho ordinary lull alao elso tho the Well Wall street and the th in corn com commodity prices friCIS especially the tho th 10 Cot drop during tho the fn In tho the last t fortnight ot of wheat Vo-hent havo hoyc made business men vet vet-v cautious about forwar buying The pessimistic p all has 11 tried to tore road rend Into I this thia tho th beginnings of a J period lot of lon depression Nothing that lute hAIl oe-I oe oc- oc purred thUs fAr warrants a Ion ilon BUsiness expansion was WILS sot IlIn tIn rg too fast a 0 pa In l and March Marh There Thero was hound to ho be n a falling off In new orders os no Soon os ns the tho of merchandise all n these theeo at the first of tho th year had been hoc hadI brought I back to normal The fact ct that new ha has dropP dropped I off In steel textiles other lines and that rep rep- rep I been heen thoro thore hoe baa dl some reduction In the tho th volume of distribution v trade Is IS no sign thit there thero Is I to bo be b a n slump ha ham All that we w I o e lied had is reaction front a for ard ard movement which was throat thront warnIngs ening from and high calling cal forth I places pl about the ho dancer dangere o of Inflation J In Jn the th course ot this reaction production is 19 down do In accordance with Ith no demand hero Here and nd there as 08 WIth the tho oil cOmpanies thoro thero will havo to ho bo some somo tory offs off lInt Dat the essential I thing loaded Is are re not load 1 Id I'd up as they worD throe three sears rs ago aco with priced high raw and material nor no have they Uley excess of finished any good roods on throUgh which they thoy th to son son- slitter by the tho th In price TE The Th I position of the tho Wheat beat grower I li is the tho th wont most lo ot of c the tho th Situation It H I 1 I Is instance ln of Wl 61 WhOSO ur of ol of t have not DOt DOtt nott t only failed but hut lse 0 mild med things worse b by far tar more mor than If It thy they kind Ind hn not ot been n tried trio The Th farmers re- re relying re lying upon special credit extensions to help holp them hold bold their wheat pleated plAnted aji nn acreage I altogether I ox- ox ro ox-ro connly I In relation to and supply Now No It turns turn out that with a 0 he heavy vy Over carr eorT over from l laty at I I yar ar r with a 0 0 now nw crop T well ell the tho th average e tho the wheat growers hd base baleto 0 II to f fac e the tha competition of o an n un- un Un un largo large Canadian dlan output con I con con- con yields front from India oDd and Europe Kurop and all this with a It normal European buying buyl K power i Tho rho Th unprofitable level of wheat I prices must bo be b taken Into a for Its it effect ot upon next reasons Bomon S buying power POTT In the tho th Industrial mar I mar mar- marRet mar kote Ret Hut nut this thia It must ho bo d that wheat heDt I a a 0 special COliC case o Cotton prices pric are nr fILl f bovo bOye the tho average I and corn OOn In t 1 the tho In delict's dolt doll r being ft D much moro mono bl crap than tho wheat It I Is l that farm prices e eon on the first of July ZUly w r per peront P r tent ont hIgher than a y r ego nd nd 30 O 0 i per par O tnt oset hither higher than Utan two years or yanaco dO ago Moreover according U la to u au nu computation the th d n I farm during the tho th lint last two months month hM ha bata b rn more mor tha th than fd od I ly hy the tho th n ii till tho priers Of onon is O which I sitar Into Ito the tho th farmers farmer s C cost coat t of o |