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Show USDA's Crop Forecasts Based ' On Reports From 300,000 Farmers Voluntary Information Comes From Every State By AL JEDLICKA There might be a lot of fancy figuring fig-uring involved in the U. S. department depart-ment of agriculture's crop reporting, but when the monthly estimates are released to a waiting press to be flashed around the country, they are of real value to farmers in planning acreage and studying the markets, and of interest to business in plotting plot-ting sales of machinery or processing process-ing equipment, etc. Because some unscrupulous speculators once pulled the blinds aside to listen in on the figuring of the crop reporting board, the latter's meetings are now held in the utmost ut-most secrecy, with members secluded behind locked doors and sealed blinds and compelled to bring their own lunches. Before the individual indi-vidual state reports are brought in to the board, only the latter's chairman chair-man and the Secretary of Agriculture Agricul-ture have access to them. The largest organization of its kind in the world, and 'a model for other countries, the USDA's crop reporting board is extraordinarily unique in that it relies upon the voluntary cooperation of some 300,-000 300,-000 farmers. Although their efforts ef-forts prove of profit to themselves, many look upon the work as the highest responsibility. According to Dale Bormuth of the USDA's Chicago office, the crop reporting re-porting board, working through its 41 field headquarters, receives its March acreage estimates through state assessors or inquiries of farmers farm-ers representative of their sections. As a result of the studies of acreage intentions, farmers may be inclined to change crop plans. The June report establishes the acreage actually planted, Bormuth said, and these figures serve as the basis for future estimates. Following the establishment of the acreage, the next important step is the forecast of the yield, with the individual reporters asked to state their normal crops if weather conditions condi-tions were good and insect damage under control. From July to October in the case of field and truck crops, and from November to July in the matter of winter wheat, the hundreds of thousands thou-sands of individual reporters then furnish information on the progress of growth to the field offices, with the board carefully checking on the whole national picture. In forming their conclusions, Bormuth Bor-muth said, the field offices follow a highly technical procedure, applying apply-ing their own experiences against the estimates of the individual reporters, re-porters, and considering such factors fac-tors as moisture and insects in their calculations. In receiving this data, the board itself then passes its own judgment on the basis of its own overall information. As a further base for figuring, j the U. S. census bureau's dicennial statistics are used as an indicator of what may be expected in long-range long-range crop development. As could be expected, the field directors di-rectors compiling state reports must contend with many inconsistencies incon-sistencies in formulating data. A few individual reporters may submit sub-mit outlandish estimates, or then again, some groups may purposely make low projections. In addition, the crop reporting service must be careful to cover all areas in which a given crop is grown, to balance the estimates between them all so as to strike a true picture. Another complicating factor, Bormuth Bor-muth said, is the reporting on new crops, where the board cannot be guided by past experience. In all of its reporting activity, however, the board is being constantly assisted by the USDA's experimental stations sta-tions at Ames, Iowa, and Raleigh, N. C, where new procedures are in development. In the case of special crops, Bormuth Bor-muth said, the board works hand in hand with grower groups or trade associations in arriving at comprehensive compre-hensive figures. During the present world conflict when food assumes a major role in total war, the USDA's crop reporting report-ing service has been of invaluable assistance to government agencies charged with the strategic planning of production. Through this service serv-ice for instance, the government has been able to make a comprehensive compre-hensive allocation of farm machinery ma-chinery to certain areas. |
