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Show Battle Tides to Influence ' Q ? 1944 Political Campaign , -XS Close Observers Change Minds, Express L du Belief President Will Not Be Candidate r If War Ends by Spring. f By BAUKIIAGE News Analyst and Commentator. "out of the White House" at his own behest, before the ides of November, Novem-ber, '44. This situation, if it does arise, imposes im-poses an interesting problem for the Democrats. It is pretty generally agreed that the conservative element in the Democratic party has been gaining in power in the last months when the President bestowed positions posi-tions of key importance on the right wing of the party while many New Dealers faded into the background. When Vice President Wallace, whom it was taken for granted would be the President's choice as a successor, suc-cessor, was dropped and his activities activi-ties placed in the more conservative hands of Messrs. Hull, Crowley, et aL, it was plain that the original New Dealers were being relegated to the rear of the hall. GOP Attitude And while the burning highlights of the administration portrait are being be-ing toned down to more sober hues, the Republicans seem to be outdoing themselves in an effort to show that they can make use of the bright lexicon of youth as a reference work and select from it promising shibboleths shib-boleths who speak of action rather than reaction. Of course, Mr. Willkie does not speak for the Republican party but he has a following which his supporters sup-porters hope will be reinforced by disgruntled former New Dealers as well as others whose leanings, although al-though they have never been such that they could wholeheartedly support sup-port a Democratic regime, are still far enough left to demand the most progressive candidate offered under any other respectable banner. Meanwhile, of course, the President Presi-dent must, according to the inviolable invio-lable principles of politics, show no signs of intending to withdraw, since it is written that you can't control your party unless there is a fair chance that you are going to continue con-tinue to be its active head. Our political campaign of 1944 is bound to be affected by the tide of battle abroad. General Arnold Explains On a mild day, with the Virginia countryside warm in the glow of autumn, and the Potomac sparkling in the sunlight, some 50 newsmen correspondents, columnists, radio commentators climbed up the wide stone steps of the river entrance to the famous Pentagon building. General Arrold, chief of America's army air forces, took his seat and began to talk. The gist of his words you have read. What he felt can only be guessed but he was faced with the proposition of "explaining the obvious" and he seemed just a little weary at the prospect. Arnold is a pleasant but blunt-spoken fighting fight-ing man with wings and service ribbons rib-bons won in service. A few days before, he happened to listen to a commentator who was computing in dollars and lives and material the cost of the bombing raid of the great ball-bearing factory fac-tory in Schweinfurt, Germany. The general was exceedingly irked. What the commentator did not perhaps realize was the number of endless explanations of "the obvious" ob-vious" which General Arnold has had to make since we entered the war. And if Germany docs crumble because her war effort i3 smashed, it will be Arnold's explanations as well as the bombs themselves that oupht to get the credit. If he had not been able to "explain" "ex-plain" that American bombers could fly in sufficient numbers into the heart of Gormmy in the light of day WNU Service, Union Trust Building, Washington, D. C. As the political campaign, which will be over in a short year, begins to increase in tempo, it is interesting to note that noticeable shock recorded record-ed by the reporters at a recent White House press and radio conference when the President tossed off that phrase "when I am out of the White House." Taken in the context, ,it was immediately im-mediately clear that the President did not delimit the time element in this statement and there was no real justification for the startled pause when pencils stopped scribbling and heads and eyebrows went up at the presidential remark. Mr. Roosevelt was merely pointing out, in connection connec-tion with the postwar rubber situation, situa-tion, that he believed that any proposed pro-posed tariff to protect the synthetic rubber plants after the war should be vetoed, and he implied that any President who vetoed such a measure meas-ure might stir up a lot of opposition from the synthetic rubber manufacturers. manufac-turers. But we have become so accustomed accus-tomed to the idea that Mr. Roosevelt himself thinks only in terms of his own regime without time or other limitations, than an expression which seemed to indicate the opposite naturally nat-urally caused a stir. However, it is entirely possible that Mr. Roosevelt will not be a candidate can-didate in 1944. There are even those who enjoy making rash prophecies who are already saying he has made up his mind not to run at all under any circumstances. This type of prediction is accepted in Washington Washing-ton as being in that class of guesses which have about a 40-60 chance of being right But closer observers who do not choose to guess the President's inner thoughts but are thoroughly famiLar with his manner of flunking, deduce, from what they believe is past experience, ex-perience, that he will not be a candidate can-didate if the war is over by next spring. This is contrary to earlier prognostications that his desire to be President when the blue-prints for the postwar world are being drawn would incline him toward running for a fourth term. The explanation is that he will not run unless he has more than an even chance of winning. win-ning. End of Conflict Although none of the army or navy officers of the top command will allow al-low themselves to be quoted as saying say-ing the war will end early In 1944, a number of bolder and less constrained con-strained military folk are willing to say this is possible.. It Is interesting to consider that a year ago this summer, when many believed that invasion of northern Europe by the Allies would be undertaken un-dertaken by the spring of 1943, few people were predicting, even under such circumstances, an nd of the war early in 1944. Take for instance a typical comment in a leading periodical peri-odical (Harper's) written very little over a year ago in which It was said that Germany must complete the conquest of key positions in Russia, must halt or control the Anglo-American onslaught from the air, and must hold northern Africa for a sortie In the Middle East. When we consider what has happened since, we can see the progress which has been made. Far from any action in which the word "conquest" could be used, the Wehrmacht in Russia has been driven beyond its last Russian defense lines in many places. The dream of an African empire has become be-come the reality of bitter defeat and and hit a target with the precision to destroy it, we would never have a chance to prove it could be done. There were few In high places either here or in Britain who believed such an absurd, untried thing was practical. liut he had his chance and proved his thesis. Then, when the experts were convinced, when he was beginning to swing Into action, ac-tion, the public began to exclaim at the cost of his raids. That must have been hard to take. And so he sat for an hour reeling off figure.1!, recounting details which will never be printed until peace comes and, most effective of all for the layman, showing tho greatly enlarged photographs of the destruction destruc-tion thono great daylight precision raids accompliihcd. despite desperate defense measures, the most powerful air blows are being be-ing struck against the Reich. Japanese Situation Within the year, Japan's power has begun to crumble at a rate and In a manner which makes It plain that she will not have to be beaten back island by Inland and every Jap on foreign soil killed. The Mikado's "unconquerable" have become exceedingly ex-ceedingly adept at getting away from points once expneted to be hint stands, with remarkable alacrity and apparent satisfaction In their own retreatobility. Therefore, It Is not at all impossible impos-sible thnt the President, If he Intends voluntarily to retire with the end of the fighting, means that he will be |