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Show I MARKETS AGAIN TAKE CUE FROM 1 GRAIN AND FOREIGN EXCHANGES I By STUART F. WKBTT (Copyright. 1922. by Ogden Stand-dard-Examincr) NEW YORK. Feb. 27. Tho markets mar-kets again this week have taken their cue largely from developments in two quartsrSi the grain trude and the for-.Ign for-.Ign exchanges. The May wheat option op-tion has risen 40 cents u bushel from the low prices of last autumn, w hen mo farmers, under prsssurS from the Uunkx wen- rushing their i; ; in t 1 market mar-ket iir anything It would bring. It went to 1.0I 1-4 h bushel In the first week Ol November; II sold as high BJ 1.47 1-2 a bushel In the first week in November; it sold as high at $1.47 1-2 during the past week In tin same interval in-terval May coin went Up Horn .s. i--10 ti cents? that 11 ha. nearl) doubled in value, while rys is selling around 11.07 as aglslnst ft 1-4. last autumn WOOrd low. Considerably n.oi. ti.an tiaM Ulli recovery has occurred wiinin I 1 .10 last month. The same period bos beenAterllng exchange rise Irom around $-..'.' lo well o- y 1.40 and th I reiuii nam for mure than cents aw agSMSI s cents. From the end ol January, accordingly to the end ot February, iv.o ol me mOSl Important elements J making tor QpUblnot recovery have i-een greatly Birengtnened. n the one i.ami une improvement In farm prices iioins earth the promi-c ot reviving buying power in the agricultural plate without which uo return to conmal conditions can be expected. in the oilier hand, mc improvement ;n the foreign exchange la preparing ihrt u-nv k.i- : 11 increase later on in OUr I export "trade, the shrinks) In which has been Otte i the prime lniluences in the recent depression. ( 1 uOOK M KOXG1 II Unc does not have to look beyond these two movements for the explanation explana-tion of the advance in tne security markets, liy reason of the changes uhlch have come over the grain market mar-ket and the foreign exchange tne I ground for assurance regaramg tne j ouslness outlook is much stronger I ihnn it was even four sreekl ago. It Is this which has fceen reriecied in the advance in stocks. Of course, the rise j would have seemed somewhut extrava gant were it not tor the recollection j ihat a speculative market, w hen U be- j in. to discount outside trade recovery, goes along with a much taster pace man the recovery itself. It gets per-hapt per-hapt six months ahead of the industrial indus-trial movement and tin n I 1 apt 10 pause while tme latter catches up. villi. IKMAXU M 1 HI l' The actual business data at the mo-mdnt mo-mdnt are by no mean.- all on the bright side. Such a representative company as the Ftepublic Iron and Steel Company Com-pany has seen fn this last wrefo i.. omit It preferred dividend and him i:ien as ihe reason ihat it is unable as yet to make its business pay. This may or may not be typical of tne tee! Independents In general, but it does suggest that even with the recent increase in-crease in orders reported In the steel trade the position of most of those J concerns will not 1 e much helped un- 1 ill ibe larger demand makes Itself I i on the steel market, i Despite the unsatisfactory situation, however, in this and a few other quarters, quar-ters, it 'is undoubtedly true that tne volume of commercial transactions In general is slowly increasing. We have this on the authority of the mercantile agencies and It shows too in the bank exchanges and In the reduction of emptv freight ears on tho railroads. I KIM II t Kl l it ISM Although there are clear proofs that the rise In the foreign exchanges Is dm- io a real shining of International credit balances awaj from the United State! and more in favor of Europe, there Is still a certain amount of unwillingness un-willingness io accept this explanation The charge that ihe move has been speculative Is now being made abroad, espeolall) bj some French bankers and manufacturers. The trouble with this criticism Is ! thai It Is not disinterested. French , business men. caving got their labor costs down to uccord with the depre-ri depre-ri iied qurrency and finding themselves for the same reason able to compete! successfully In the foreign trude. ure not at all pleased over the upturn In Kronen ex. nange. The would like to! believe the rise is something speculat- Ive and epheraerertl and si ubtless would French hankers, who, perhaps, did not i over their requirements when francs weie down and who have re- mlltances tO make abroad. ni mmii s r:ij, stoim The unbiased view Is that the inter , national trade statistics havi a verj ' plain story to toll) showing thai Ku- ; topi . during tiie last twelve months i 'has en down Its purchases In the I American market a good deal more than it has lost on its own shipments in t his country. What is equally Important Is iho credit relaxation in the United Btatea and England. Western Europe has I been aid to negotiate adverse tradl i balances with America and England by borrowing privately from American mil F.nrrllah IuhImh rjhnm In turn ... . . . are ready to lend because of Ihe at- ' I traOtlveneSS of the terms offered as 'compared with what they would Ret at 1 home. PRn Vie BORROW I1VG When the federal reserve authorities I at ihe height of ihe Banking crisis in May, i'.'2o, shut down upon further ! loans on exchange bills the amount of I these private borrowings w as placed at I $3,000,000,000 and by some even bigh- er. The niiestlon has been raised as ! to what has become of these floating ; obligations and how they fli Into the advance in the exchange:. H Is also I 'said a large proportion of theae loans were made io isouth American coiin ines and consequently do not affect directly the movement of English and French exchange, in the second place ihe bulk ot these invisible Ekirorx in borrowings anil al Past a Mjhsta lltlal minority of the South American, were cleared up by the huge transfers Ol gold In this country and through tho ! sab- b re of a great quantity of for- ! sign government and private eecurlt- I les. I t l 5S OF GOLD IMPOH rs , Our total excess of gold Imports foi I l!-0 and I'.i2 1 Id;.i tiler was iln-e t. i $1,100,000,000. Of the S6CT.000.00U ; sent hers last year. $201,000,000 came I from Great Britain and nearly $191.' 000.000 from I' ranee. These gold shipments, alone With our purchases 1 6f English and French bond Issue 'would have sufficed In all reasonable probability to extinguish the floating ' loan account, as It stood to the debit of these two countries, al the end of :in2". This is only another way ol I Stating that In the process of thawing ', ihe frozen credits and restoring the federal reserve position to normal i strength, the foreign exchange market j has borne its share along with general gene-ral business, with agriculture and I With the slock exchange. |