OCR Text |
Show AS TO BUSINESS AFTER I , THE WAR j Business men of Ogden have asked the Standard repeatedly as to the business outlook after the war. One of our wholesalers has said that the uncertainty as to the future is ono of the big problems constantly before be-fore every house doing a large business. busi-ness. Undoubtedly there will come a period pe-riod of readjustment when the nations, na-tions, turning from fightin? to the devastated fields and cities of Europe, face the stupendous task of rebuilding. rebuild-ing. Having lost millions of men, Europe will be a less consumer than before the war. That will affect our foreign trade. Unless the loss thus to be suffered is to be made up by the new commerce developed in South America, Africa and Asia, the foreign trado of the United States must fall to a lower level than before the war. Such is our conclusion, and an ox-pert ox-pert in tho employ of tho government, Dr. Edward E. Pratt, chief of the bureau bur-eau of foreign and domestic commerce, com-merce, addressing tho American Manufacturers' Man-ufacturers' Export association, gave a most comprehensive review of present pres-ent conditions and forecast of what may be expected, which, in part, accords ac-cords with our view: "It is believed by many people, oven by many business mon," said Dr. Pratt, "that when tho Avar comes to an end tho Unitod States will be flooded flood-ed with low-priced European products. This view, in my opinion, is based on a worn-out and obsolete theory of our national economy, a theory which is incompatible with the position in international commerce which we n5w occupy. This theory of national economy econ-omy which I have characterized as worn-out maintains that we can and must always sell in the markets of tho world and that we must buy as little as possible. It has been amply demonstrated during tho last two years that such a theory of national economy is untenable. The rising and falling prices 'of cotton and wheat, tho rising and falling exchange in foreign countries, has taught us that foreign trado is TRADE is, literally, an exchange; in order to sell, we must buy. The only theory of national nation-al economy which will adequately meet the needs of our situation at the prpsent time is one which will facilitate this exchange of commodities. com-modities. "Further, the view that the United States will be flooded with low-priced products is also based on two premises, prem-ises, both Of which arc untenable. The first false promise Is that the products prod-ucts of the nation can be exported before be-fore the domestic needs are satisfied. The second false premise is that the European nations have the requisite raw materials from which to manufacture manufac-ture finished products. "What are the actual conditions in Europe at present? Stocks of all kinds of goods are literallyexhausted. I am informed that the shelves of wholesale and retail houses are fairly stripped, that machinery of obsolete design is being pressed Into service, that makeshifts are resorted to at every ev-ery turn. It is a commonly accepted fact among business men that thero is no catastrophe so great to any business busi-ness as the disruption of its organization. organi-zation. The men who have ocmposed tho business organizations of European Euro-pean manufacturing concerns are in tno armies, luacmnery, roiling stocK, and equipment of all kinds have been operating without repairs and without renewals. Every one of tho European nations is piling up great funded debts which will be paid off by taxes taxes that will bear heavily on business busi-ness and industry for the next fifty to ono hundred years. We know that the credit of European nations has been strained to the breaking point in order to supply tho finances of this titanic struggle. "We can see something of the future fu-ture by studying tho past. This Is not tho first war which has occurred in Europe and it is likely that tho effects ef-fects of this war will be similar to the effects of wars during the last century, although such effects may bo greater and more far-reaching. "We find that during the years immediately im-mediately following the Crimean war Interest rates increased by as much as fifty per cent. After the Franco-Prussian Franco-Prussian war wages increased in France and Germany. After the Russo-Japanese war, wages increased in Russia and especially in Japan. These facts, and many others which might be cited, seem to me to prove conclusively con-clusively that wages and interest will increase considerably In the years following fol-lowing the European war. If this be tine, then the whole level of prices in Europe will be higher." As a development bearing in an Important Im-portant way on the commercial relations rela-tions of tho United States with the belligerent countries after the war, Dr. Pratt spoke at somo length upon f ParlB. "This conference," Bald tho epoaker, "dwelt at lenpth and In somo dotall with oconomlc conditions which the various nations wish to bring about at the close ot tho European war. If such an alliance actually comes into existence there is no doubt but that a similar alliance will bo 4 found among those powers now on tho othor side. Wo anticipate,, there-foro, there-foro, two general oconomlc groups in Europe building up barrlorB against the nations now opposed to them. This would leave the neutral nations of tho world, and especially the United Unit-ed States, in a peculiar position. We would probably not receive tho most favorable treatment from elthor side, nor am I inclined to believe that we would suffer from any special discrimination. dis-crimination. Thero is no doubt that if wo are not able to obtain from the various oconomlc groups concessions conces-sions placing us on as favorable a basis as their own mombers that our trado will be considerably handicapped. handicap-ped. In othor words, It Is unlikely that any of the nations of Europe will willingly, handicap themselves by depriving themsolvos of tho raw materials, ma-terials, tho machinery, the labor-saving devices, and the capital which thoy will need immediately after the war and which they will bo able to obtain only from the United States. Howover, these economic alliances and their possible effect upon the future trade of tho United States must be seriously considered. "Wo have accomplished a great deal since we wero pushed forward Into our present prominent position In the commercial world, but there arc a number of important measures yet to be taken if we are to continue In the role of a world power. These measures may be grouped as governmental govern-mental and private. There aro certain cer-tain other things which every manufacturer manu-facturer and exporter can do and must do The first, and perhaps the most important point to be emphasized is that we must get a now point of view on tariff matters. It is not sufficient that we should have a protective tariff, tar-iff, a tariff for revenue only, or free trado. We should look upon tho tariff tar-iff as an aid in building up trade. We should certainly not look upon the tariff tar-iff as a barrier to trade as wo would, it seems to me, be seriously hampering hamper-ing our future as ono of tho great industrial in-dustrial and comemrclal powers of the world If we set up the tariff merely mere-ly as a barrier to the exchange of products between this country and other countries. I will not undertake to say that during the period of development de-velopment . through which we have passed such a tariff policy has been a mistaken one. I will, however, undertake un-dertake to say that at present such Avith the position which we now occupy oc-cupy and would have serious consequence conse-quence in the development of the United States as a world power. What we need Is a bargaining tariff which would enable us to get the maximum advantage in international trade. Provision Pro-vision for such a consideration of the tariff has been made in tho act creating creat-ing the new tariff commission. "A subject closely related to the tariff tar-iff is that of commercial treaties. We have been backward in the matter of negotiating commercial treaties with the principal nations of the world. We should not, however, be too hasty tn criticising ourselves and our government govern-ment for not making greater progress In this matter. We should remember at this time that we, the United States, broke the best trade treaty that any nation over had with tho country which is undoubtedly our most promising market. Did we hear any great outcry from the business community? I have searched tho files of our business publications and I find that the matter received only a scant and passing notice. I believe I am correct In saying that such a trade treaty with Russia could not be broken today, and that it would not have been broken is our business community had appreciated tho everlasting ever-lasting harm which It would do to our commercial relations with Russia. As soon as tho nations of Europe are able to give this matter attention, we ' should be prepared to negotiate commercial com-mercial treaties. Here again the tariff tar-iff commission has ben given certain specific duties. "One very Important step In the development de-velopment of our foreign trado re- j mains to bo taken. I refer to e passage of a measure which will permit per-mit our manufacturers to combine for the purpose of developing foreign trade. This will put our manufacturers manufactur-ers on a basis similar to that of the manufacturers and exporters of other countries and will enable us perhaps more than any other one thing to meet effectively the growing centralization central-ization ' on economic resources in Europe." |