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Show Page 18 The Ogden Valley news Volume XV Issue II January 1, 2008 Weber County’s Small Business Sector Impacted by Cloudy U.S. Growth Forecast Highlights •Weber County experienced job growth of 2,600 jobs (2.8%) from a year ago. Joblessness registered 3.2%, up from the 2.8% unemployment rate one year ago. •The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 109.5 in November 2007, up from a revised 108.7 in October 2007. •Utah's unemployment rate was estimated at 2.8% in the latest month, up slightly from the prior month's 2.7% rate. Total Utah employment is up an estimated 52,500 jobs during the past 12 months. •Extreme volatility of the U.S. economy during 2007, combined with a clouded outlook for 2008, makes planning difficult for Utah's small businesses. •The U.S. economy added 94,000 net new jobs in November, slightly above expectations. The U.S. unemployment rate remained at 4.7% for the third month in a row. Growth Gyrations U.S. economic growth has touched nearly all the bases during 2007. The meager 0.6% real (inflation adjusted) annual growth pace of the U.S. economy during 2007’s first quarter was the weakest quarter in five years. The economy then grew at a solid 3.8% real annual growth pace during the April-June period. U.S. economic growth during 2007’s third quarter? How ‘bout a recently revised 4.9% real annual growth pace, the strongest quarter in five years! Unfortunately, such solid growth will not continue. Most forecasters see growth in the current quarter within a range of 0.2% to 1.5%. Most forecasts suggest a modest improvement in 2008’s first quarter, followed by slightly better performance as the year continues. Other forecasters speak loudly of recession that is about to engulf the economy, led by national housing weakness and global credit anxiety. We continue to suggest a 30% - 40% chance of a U.S. recession during the next 12 months. Performance of the U.S. economy is a component of the Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah. Utah Employment The Utah unemployment rate-the most heavily weighted component of the Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah-was estimated at 2.8% in the latest month, up slightly from the prior month’s 2.7% rate. The 2.8% rate compares to a 2.6% rate during the same month one year ago. A jobless rate of 2.3% in February ranked with the lowest ever recorded in the state and was the lowest in the continental U.S. A higher Utah unemployment rate is a positive contributor to the Index as it implies increased access to Utah labor. Utah’s unemployment rate averaged 2.9% in 2006, 4.3% in 2005, 5.1% in 2004, 5.7% in 2003 and in 2002, and 4.4% in 2001. These rates compare to an average Utah unemployment rate of 3.5% between 1995 and 1999. Total Utah employment rose by an estimated 52,500 jobs (up 4.3%) over the past 12 months. The 4.3% rise is one of the strongest annualized Utah gains in more than 10 years, and is the strongest job growth rate in the nation. This rise compares to a revised gain of 53,600 jobs in the prior year-over-year period. Utah added 55,200 jobs in 2006, 43,700 jobs in 2005, and 30,200 jobs in 2004. These totals compare to gains averaging 38,000 new jobs annually during the 19942000 period and a net loss of 1,300 jobs in 2001 through 2003. More recently, weaker job gains, leading to lesser income creation and softer retail spending, have a negative impact upon Utah’s small businesses; and, therefore, the Index. The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 109.5 during November 2007, up from a revised 108.7 during October 2007. The Index measures business conditions from the viewpoint of the Utah small business owner or manager. A higher Index number is associated with more favorable business “conditions” for Utah’s small businesses. The Index uses 100.0 for calendar year 1997 as its base year. The Index includes revisions to various historical and new forecast components as they become available. Local Performance Weber County experienced job growth of 2,600 jobs (2.8%) from a year ago. Joblessness registered 3.2%, up from the 2.8% unemployment rate one year ago. Davis County payrolls expanded by 2,900 jobs (2.9%) in the past year. The unemployment rate was 2.6% in the latest month, up from 2.4% one year ago. Cache County employment grew by 1,700 jobs (3.5%) in the latest 12-month period. The area’s jobless rate was 2.1%, up from the 1.9% rate of one year ago. Salt Lake County employment rose by 24,600 jobs (4.2%) over the year. The county’s unemployment rate was 2.5% in the latest month, up from 2.3% last year. Utah County employment grew by 11,400 jobs (6.3%) over the last 12 months. The area’s jobless rate was 2.4%, up from the 2.2% rate of one year ago. Washington County payrolls expanded by 2,000 jobs (3.7%) in the past year. The unemployment rate was 2.6% in the latest month, up from 2.4% one year ago. National Employment The U.S. Department of Labor reported a net rise of 94,000 jobs in November 2007, slightly above the consensus forecast. Previously reported employment gains for September and October were revised lower by a total of 48,000 jobs. The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.7% in November, matching the rate of the two prior months. March’s 4.4% jobless rate matched that of November 2006 as the lowest in more than five years. The average hourly wage rose 0.5% (eight cents) to $17.63 hourly, a rise of 3.8% over the past 12 months. Goods-producing employment continued to decline in November, with a net loss of 33,000 jobs. Construction employment fell by 24,000 positions, while manufacturing lost 11,000 jobs. Service-providing employment led the way in November with a rise of 127,000 net new jobs. The professional & business services sector and the government sector each added 30,000 net new jobs during November. The education & health services sector added 28,000 net new positions, while the leisure & hospitality sector added 26,000 jobs. The U.S. economy has added 1.3 million net additional jobs so far this year, an average of 118,000 net new jobs monthly. This average is down 38% from the 189,000 monthly average gain in 2006. Also, for the first time in nearly four years, the sixmonth moving average is less than 100,000 jobs monthly. The December 2007 Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah will be released January 8, 2008. Zions Bank is Utah’s oldest financial institution, and is the only local bank with statewide distribution of branches. Founded in 1873, Zions has been serving the communities of Utah for more than 130 years. Additional information is available at <www.zionsbank.com> Jeff Thredgold, Thredgold Economic Associates, Economic Consultant to Zions Bank (801) 614-0403 (c)2007 Thredgold Economic Associates U.S. Forest Service Urges Caution Due to Avalanche Danger Heavy snowfall in the Wasatch Mountains have created unstable snow pack at many upper elevation mountain locations. The combination of weak underlying snow and a large amount of new snow creates a recipe for dangerous avalanches. With an eager population that likes to get up into the mountains to recreate, the Forest Service is urging people to use caution this season. Avalanche information is available by calling toll free 1-888-999-4019 or on the internet at <www.utahavalanchecenter.com> One Dead, One Injured in Rare Avalanche at The Canyons An unidentified 11 year-old boy was injured Sunday morning, December 23 in a rare in-bounds avalanche at The Canyons that killed another skier and swept away the boy’s father. The deceased was a male between 25 and 30 years old who died of trauma from injuries sustained in the slide. The boy’s father was also swept away by the avalanche but was able to extricate himself from the debris. The Canyons Ski Patrol arrived on the scene within four minutes of the initial call for assistance, and the deceased was located a mere four minutes later. The injured boy was rescued some 25 minutes thereafter with no pulse or breathing, but was revived by CPR administered by the Patrol before being evacuated to Primary Children’s Medical Center in Salt Lake City. In-bounds avalanches at U.S. ski areas are very uncommon thanks to ski patrol avalanche control efforts. As a result, only one other avalanche fatality has occurred within an American ski area during the past ten years, reports the National Ski Areas Association. “Control teams had peppered the area with over 170 lbs of explosives the day before,” Utah Avalanche Center forecaster Drew Hardesty wrote on Sunday. “It’s a tragic accident.” |
