| OCR Text |
Show Thursday. November 22, 1979, THE HERALD, Provo, Utah-P- IB age What Will Life Be Like m Year 20Q0? (Editor'i note: Babies born in come of age in the traditional tense in the year 2000. Will they live in a brave new world or a world of poverty or dehumanizing automation? The first in a four-paseries takes up the Question "How will we adapt to advanced technology?" world out of trouble a lament echoed by Toffler. "I also think the 1980s and '90s will see some terrible technological disasters if we continue on our present track. If we keep proliferating nuclear plants, siting them on geological faults or near volcanoes or dumping radioactive wastes into the seas and into the 1971 will rt outside the established in- to flounder. The confused and disdustries that provide the older products organized response to the energy situawith which the new compete," said tion is the classic example " he said. Hollomon who is director of MIT's Kahn has predicted that Center for Policy Alternatives. technological advances will help inHe said the calculator, the electric crease the standard of living for most typewriter and the transistor are ex- Americans, but not as much as in the amples of innovations that did not spr- past 25 years. "The period between now and 2000 is ing from entrenched firms. Futurist Herman Kahn director of a particularly interesting and importhe Hudson Institute which studies tant time in human history. A foremost long-tertrends in global civilization, task is coping with and learning to said in a recent interview in U.S. News manage the problems of a worldwide and World Report that it appears the economy," Kahn next 10 years will be a decade of conwrote earlier this year in an article for tinued threats to our standard of living The Futurist magazine. in which the government will be slow to "We anticipate continuing high inflabounce back. tion and a very competitive business "Our reaction time is longer when a environment. But the investment crisis arises and our policymakers tend climate is likely to improve and there develop earth, somewhere along the line, By United Press International despite all the fancy computer models The human race is on the verge of a and all the assurances we get from the new decade and we are around the corexperts, some unexpected series of ner from a new century. We are the human errors will occur. pioneers moving into a new "All those beautiful fail-saf- e systems technological era and our children will will fail to prevent tragedy because become of age in a new world they themselves will prove irrelevant. wonderously different than we and our You can't ever cover all possibilities," forebearers experienced. Toffler said in a recent interview in The children born today will look OMNI Magazine. back in the year 2000 at the feats of the "We are beginning to play with Apollo astronauts in much the same genetic engineering, weather modifica-tio- n way we view the accomplishment of and other high powered Wilbur and Orville Wright. The heart technologies we know little about. Contransplants of Dr. Christiaan Barnard sidering our abysmal environmental will look minor against the medical and record with far more traditional, less surgical wonders of tomorrow. powerful technologies, there is plenty But will life be any easier or more of cause for concern. comfortable in the 21st century? Will "But none of this means we should advanced technologies help us or turn the clock back, that we should hinder us? Will we flourish or perish by stamp out technology which can't be our own hand? or that we should done, anyway The questions we have to answer doom of the human race about the future are almost too to perpetual hunger and poverty in the numerous for one person to catalogue interest of preserving the environment. because every aspect of mankind's way What it does mean is that we can no of living is constantly changing. Is longer play the technological game the there one catastasis which we have not way we have. recognized yet that will lead us directly "It's a new game, and rule number to catastrophe or is there hope? one is proceed with extreme caution," Futurists recognize the gravity of the Toffler said. problems ahead overpopulation, Cornish is worried about the shortages of resources, inflation, specialization which comes along with hunger and the threat of nuclear advanced technology. He sees complex destruction. technologies making it too difficult for Most futurists and scholars inter- the individual to adapt and views previewed on the subject of life in the year sent society as too "vulnerable to 2,000 agree that our survival depends disruption." on the wisdom of our decisions made "We really don't know how to live in over the' next 20 years or so. a very complex network of systems. The primary concern seems to be Social systems, political systems, three-quarte- population. The current world population is hovering around the 4.5 billion mark. But by the time today's newborn reaches the age of 21 the world population is predicted to be at an estimated 6.2 billion. "That's a 43 percent increase. That's a phenomenal growth over 21 years. There has just never been that many people in the world before," said Carl Haub, who is the research demographer for the Population Reference Bureau in Washington, D.C. "Vast numbers of those people will be living in hunger if we don't do something about it now." Computers, information systems, electric automobiles, outer space travel, bionic transplants, and domed cities will be of little meaning to the impoverished. "Advanced technology won't do them any good if they are too weak from hunger to take advantage of it," Haub said. the grandad-d- y Author Alvin Toffler of futurists who practically invented the study of the future with his book is very concerned "Future Shock" about the gap between the beneficiaries of technology and those unable to take advantage of it. "I believe we are moving into a period of extreme turbulence with changes coming together to shake the industrial system, and to transform it into something new," Toffler said. "Unless we make the computer into tool for a cheap, simple and easy-to-uthe entire world, we risk losing it in an economic revolution led by the world poor," Toffler said. A report released earlier this year by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, more popularly known as The World Bank, predicted that by the year 2000 an estimated 600 million people will live in "absolute poverty" and that more than half the world's population will be living in urban areas. The report said urban growth in Third World and developing nations will increase at'a rate three or four times greater than in industralized nase tions. What this means is that great stress will be put on technology to alleviate unemployment and make life more r comfortable. World Bank President Robert S. said in the report that the survival of developing countries will depend largely on those nation's abilities to develop domestic policies which are ra geared towards agricultural technology. "But their task can be greatly aided by improved access to markets in the industrialized nations and by more generous flows of concessional assistance from these countries," he said. Some futurists believe that developing nations may hold the upper hand against industrialized nations when it comes to energy and that they will be able to use their energy resources as barter in obtaining technological knowhow from the more industralized nations. "The current civilization we have developed which depends on petroleum and fossil fuels is on a Kind of collision course with the future. We are running out of many resources and in many other ways we are more or less forced to go outside the states for these supplies. "As other countries start to technological directions r ?f7rjA Mf ? - ... cnnrnUADT ovrLmwrnvi JftNTND Y.71LPAPER ( I S! MmJt BALLON PER CUSTOMER. PLEASE. 1 Goodman says. "Although the people of 1984 live close to the poverty level, technological progress is not wholly retarded, and throughout the novel Orwell speculates about dozens of future inventions. He talks about lenses in space that would focus the heat of the sun on the enemy. (Continued on Page 2B) IMPROVtMtm hiCi) CHOOSE FROM OUR BEST INTERIOR. EXTERIOR, LATEX, ACHYLIC, FLAT OR LIMIT "Even more accurate than Orwell's predictions of international relations are his forecasts of future developments in science and technology," does that t U HOME OR WALLPAPER IN STOCK! M book "1984." iiiDiri'iniJTMr'aM? 7 GET i gallon OF any color tile VALUE1 A fVv a a a Y rAINT FOR ONLY BSC WHEN YOU BUY LA $88 OR MORE OF ANY TILE, PAINT SEMI-SLOS- revolution mean we will be unconsciously moving closer to a civilization in which our lives will be controlled by technology rather than us controlling it? Some futurists believe so. David Goodman, who manages a PAINT OFFER $13.99 JkT ' J l 1 r liltZ. I 1 I they are all interlinked," Cornish said. Cornish used the example of the ox cart and the supersonic jet to illustrate his meaning. "The ox cart can be knocked to pieces and reassembled by one man. But you can't do that with a supersonic jet. It is so complex it takes an army of men to put it back together again. "We have very complex and very powerful systems, but systems that are Cornish vulnerable to disruption said. "We are living in a period of human history where things could go many different ways. What actually will happen will depend on relatively small decisions. "In our modern society we have seen a breakdown of wisdom. People are told by a dozen different people what is right and what is wrong. How does one choose? It's overspecialization. We haven't known how to put the whole thing together." As of today we have very poor mechanisms for dealing with these In a sense individuals and ?uestions. are generally very poorly informed about technology and its consequences, according to Cornish. "I think it is naive ... to go on letting that major technological decisions will affect our lives and the lives of bur be made by small elites children from business, government, and science," Toffler said. "Our moral responsibility is not to stop the future, but to shape it, to channel our destiny in humane directions, and to try to ease the trauma of transition. One way to do that is tc invite millions of people, especially the dispossessed and disfranchised, who are seldom consulted, to share in basic IfLJI ILjUUu fS . raV 4M EASY-CAR- JS&m GLAZE N m1 SCRATCH, HEt0S FAST & EAST TO INSTALL -J- UST 2w3 WiFSS ( K SHINE WAX! E MEVER COUMTERTOPS!' FIREO-O- - IS J E FOR GLEAMING KITCHENS, BATHS l!Kr J ' fv, V VGMiV7i& SOUVRSIlUlt mSA Mo55KM-WA,l1Illr.5n JJtE 7tfeffiWS JcMP'fCS VJSSlfSSR UfWWi (t$M'm PtM. ff.SSS!E5J SfS V SUNNY CERAMIC WALL TILE "I y Ulilfi 1 ll H I MNjjH mwuseo tiles! "EL decisions. "This means giving them a stake in tomorrow. It means designing new for controlling our technological lunge into the future. It means replacing our obsolete political structures. It means new decisions d systems that are both and, at the same time, broadly participative." There are people today attempting to make their lives simpler by shedding the complex technologies which have tangled their lives. Some of these people go live in the woods away from all the amenities of urban' life. But there are others seeking natives to present technologies. The family which heats its home by solar power and uses the simple technology of the greenhouse to grow food is an example. These are people seeking in a complex world. They are people who can reassemble the ox cart, Cornish said. "We are moving toward a very a return to a kind of chaotic period withdrawal from the world in which small groups of people will try to reestablish something apprroaching sanity in this world gone mad and out of this will come a new order a new ap proach," Cornish said. "While some futurists believe human life will get better In the years ahead, others are convinced that the quality of life will deteriorate.. .Pessimists stress the undesired of technology, which have led to pollution, depletion of natural resources, and an ominous increase in the world's popula- 1 future-oriente- OLEFIN CARPET TILE FASHION LATEX FLAT ..... . ACRYLIC FLAT 1 EAST CLEAN UP. SS SCRUSBABLE LATEX! MINUTE DRY! COAT COVERAGE! THAT SELF-STIC- K Fl nOR TILE NEVER YELLOW! M1 inir J PLACE 'N' PRESS' .CUWCPlSI6N!,y,,r t IUU TUB mxmm Til wet t RAIIIK .GMCRS newt w t r KkFS t$ NO - -- m I tocstl H0TELLF- A Y.XO I 1 CORK Utduno m RQlfiMT COLORS ACCENT ANY ROOM! DROP CLOTH SUP r i tr OVK TtiCt BATH STRIPS BACK oat teict L in INSULATION! 0RAMATIC WALL ACCENT FOR ANT HUOM! Uf IT STfc I .f1!TK our'" IA. Irinw C N rate ttlC.f rsg -- so coct 4SO FT.FKa ET. ranimtiMtvMi MM( f TMU OVER 7 tUwti Mm. 1.30 79 130 Frl. 1:00 . 5:30 w iioo.StfiO LA. 4AQ . Sal. KB. PAINTOM J RED QU ARRT RUGGED iOO" VTTL FROST! .r..T 129 ROLLERS! jots tidy! PIECE PAINTING SET r nxia t iC COURS! PUSTIC .WATBamOOFSI namoui POPULAR FIT TUS ft FLOOR SEAL 9tmrm nana IMUWI 3 i STYUSTIKsTILE ltTll LUTH ROLLER REFILLS LUHS VINYL! mm ft WEAR! SUPtHB .: ff FLEXIBLE SEAMLESS FIT IN MOST ROOMS! - oiirjioaaLBuass ir EASY TQ INSTALL! 100 STAINS JUST FLEXIBLE TRIM TO Fl?. mm J r ntsisrs FLOOR TILE Ktsioia UUIUA VINYL FLOORING BACKS! nFLUXE VINYL MFVY WEAR! HANUJMJMt mi flRtt K r ir . ir I EASY & ECONOMICAL! TOUGH 1 SIMM nAi RICH COLORS DESIGNS! NO? tion. "Optimists concede that technology is having some bad effects, but believe that these can be controlled and that improved technology will offer the DURABLE FLOOR TILE nu ""' . 6REAT run .FANTASTIC COLORS .30 COLORS! T SEMI-GLO- MflUI side-effec- ts world's impoverished millions a decent of life." their raw materials. Raw materials quality One way to help future technology will no longer be in the abundance that along is for business and government to they were in the past," said Edward begin sharing with smaller firms and World of the Future Cornish, president other nations the development of Society. "If our technology advances to Dr. J. Herbert we will be able to find ways to make technology, according of the Massachusetts InHollomon due with less." stitute of Technology. advancements have He says government regulations and Technological both their good and evil aspects, Coractions protect the larger and more nish said. entrenched fkms such as IBM from the Cornish is an advocate of threat of new or cheaper products technological advances, but he says made by smaller, less established there are precious few leaders in the firms. "More frequently than not, new world today who have the "technological wisdom" to keep the products based on pew technology they will not want to sell us "A second computer future consulting firm in California, said the Western World may be much closer than most people realize to experiencing the totalitarian nightmare" that novelist George Orwell predicted more than 30 vears ago in his should have far reaching effects. Continuing education, tourism leisure activities, and various service industries may expand rapidly and in new directions," Kahn said. But, as we move into new social and al super-industri- rs scientific systems will be many new technological gadgets for which consumers will be eager witness the recent example of CB radio and the current popularity of and which will microcomputers boost aggregate demand. IT I ' I 400 HOME IMPROVEMENT CENTERS COAST TO COAST 1 350 So. State Orcm 225-17- 92 NO M0KEY DOWN WITH APPROVED CREDIT RAIN CKECKS CIVE3I IF OUT OF STOCK WtWIUKCLOSEOTMANKSUVINSOAY 'rl'" 1 VISA C- - l lI |
