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Show National Topics Interpreted jj by William Bruckart National Press Building Washington. D. C. trSJvQ-yTj Washington. Wall Street and the leeurities market generally have been undergoing Bad Case of bad case of the Jitters jitters. It has been several years ince those dealing In money and chares of stock have been so uncertain un-certain as to the future and this 'uncertainty obviously is the cause of the jitters among all people who dribble in the stock market, whether the dabbling be small or large, on margin or for cash. It seems a proper time, therefore, there-fore, to examine the picture and try to see what lies beneath. And, let me hasten to say at the very outset out-set that anyone who makes a positive posi-tive statement about the securities market these days must be either a fool or a superman and thus far the supermen who have lived on this earth number only one. But that fact does not destroy the value of an examination of a condition con-dition which exists as a fact. Indeed, In-deed, I think a review of the various factors and influences at work now can provide a Clarification of general gen-eral conditions even though it may fail utterly to show why men and women act as they do with respect to stock market investments. First, it should be said that Wall Street, as the term is commonly used, Is not unanimous within itself. it-self. The violent fluctuation of market mar-ket securities in the last several weeks might easily be said to be due to the war crises in Europe and in the Far East. Only, those fluctuations fluctu-ations are not traceable to war conditions. con-ditions. Rather, the war conditions are used by some individuals as an excuse an alibi to themselves because be-cause they fail to fathom the various vari-ous influences and factors now at work. :I said that Wall Street lacked unanimity within itself. That is true because within Wall Street there are all kinds of selfish groups operating. oper-ating. For example, an influence like-inflation is highly pleasing to the brokers and dealers in shares while the same influence frightens bankers and likewise gives a sickening sick-ening feeling to those who must buy raw products. Bankers and sound investors as well as tax payers pay-ers generally would be quite happy to see the Federal Treasury's budget b;;anced because if that were done there would be a much greater sene of security, of safety for those Block market investments. A dozen other illustrations could be given to thus illustrate the point and show why Black Case Wall Street can-Involved can-Involved not agree. They do not show, however, how-ever, why there is so much uncertainty uncer-tainty and why the bulls or the bears have been unable to adjust themselves to the future probabilities. probabili-ties. The reasons, therefore, must lie deeper. It is possible that the appointment of Hugo Black of Alabama Ala-bama as an associate justice of the Supreme court of the United States has had more effect on the business world than any of us realize. real-ize. I have heard a number of corporation cor-poration executives say that they hope they will never be involved in litigation which will carry their corporations cor-porations before the court on which Mr. Black sits. If they entertained that fear before, undoubtedly the fear is deeper-seated and more widespread now that Mr. Justice Black has been publicly accused of holding a life membership in the Ku KJux Klan. Certainly the expose of the typhoon that is swirling around the head of the new associate justice jus-tice cannot have any soothing effect ef-fect upon the minds of those business busi-ness men who, as corporation executives, exec-utives, are trustees of vast sums of the people's money. Undoubtedly, unless Mr. Black can prove that he is not affiliated with the Ku Klux Klan, few litigants will leel safe before be-fore the Supreme court Then, there comes the resignation of James M. Landis as chairman of the securities and exchange commission com-mission which regulates operations of the great stock exchanges. Mr. Landis has been regarded as rather fair, rather just, in his dealings relating re-lating to stock market operations. His retirement to return to a professorship pro-fessorship in Harvard, of course, opens up the question as to his successor. suc-cessor. This is to say that most of the financial world is hoping and praying that the new chairman will not go off at a tangent; that he will avoid extreme radicalism and that he will not blame the whole financial finan-cial structure for the crookedness of a part of it Thus, it becomes easy to see how this minor factor may have weight with some individuals dealing in corpjrate shares and bonds. William Wil-liam O. Douglas, a member of the commission, has been slated to become be-come chairman but developments in recent weeks give considerable doubt over that result. Mr. Douglas Doug-las is recorded as being a radical. Bankers and investors in many parts of the country fear that if he is made chairman he will become not unlike the famous bull in a china cabinet. But, according to the undercurrent un-dercurrent of gossip around Washington Wash-ington Mr. Douglas has done some- thing to offend Postmaster General Farley, and no man can draw an appointment as important as the chairmanship of a great commission commis-sion without Mr. Farley's approval. Aside from personalities, various phases of President Roosevelt's monetary policies continue to be disturbing dis-turbing and in addition to these there is the certainty that new taxes must be levied. That is, new taxes must be levied if we are ever going to balance the federal budget and begin paying off the gigantic national nation-al debt which now amounts to more than 38 billion. With a debt at the highest point our United States ever has known, a great many people, including bankers, have become fearful of what they might get for United States bonds that they now hold. It is obvious that this influence influ-ence adds to the general uncertainty although it is difficult to measure the exact influence of this condition, or to see whether it is a major or a minor factor. Having enumerated a few of the influences known to be at work, we , come now to that Business condition which Conditions heretofore always has been basic. I refer to general business conditions. New Deal press agents have tried valiantly to make it appear that business is booming; that prosperity is here instead of around the corner; cor-ner; and that the country has nothing noth-ing to fear. Careful examination of official figures, however, show the prosperity statements to be true only in parts. The official statistics disclose very definitely how some lines of business are enjoying a volume vol-ume of trade or production higher even than 1929. They show on the Other hand a vast number of failures, fail-ures, an increasing number of big businesses which are barely getting by which can continue providing their present volume of business is maintained. If the volume of business busi-ness slips, however, that category of business is going into a tailspin as sure as the sun shines. If a part of the business of the country begins to sink well, a part of it . began to sink in August, 1929, and within two years the whole structure struc-ture had fallen like a house of cards. I am not saying that we are confronted con-fronted wjith another depression. I do say, however, that we are facing a condition that is not at all satisfactory satis-factory a condition that can lead to a depression as easily as it can lead to sound prosperity in commerce com-merce and industry. Astute observers and business men in the larger centers decide their courses upon the outlook for the whole country, not for any particular par-ticular line of business or any particular par-ticular section. The number of individuals in-dividuals who see the picture I have attempted to outline in the above paragraph is increasing. As that number increases obviously the wave of uncertainty expands. So, if one is compelled to make a guess why Wall Street is so concerned con-cerned or so jittery, it would seem that the explanation must lie in the combination of circumstances. No one of them, except possibly the adverse ad-verse business outlook, could accomplish ac-complish as much doubt about the future. Anyone talking with a hundred different individuals will hear these various factors and influences mentioned. men-tioned. He will hear different weight given by each individual to each factor. " We have been dealing with causes. Let us look at possible effects. It will be remem-Now, remem-Now, as bered how Presi-to Presi-to Effects dent Hoover was blamed for the depression. de-pression. He and the Republican party were punished on that account ac-count and badly licked in the elections. elec-tions. It ought to be said in Mr. Hoover's behalf that the conditions which led to the depression had their beginning long before he was elected President. Indeed, they had their real beginning in the World war. President Roosevelt came into office of-fice as a result. He started doing things and gaining the confidence of the country to such an extent that he was re-elected last year. Probably he was re-elected largely because of the bulk of the voters feeling he was restoring prosperity. I doubt, however, that Mr. Roosevelt Roose-velt was any more responsible for the return of a superficial prosperity prosper-ity than Mr. Hoover was responsible responsi-ble for the depression. But we are coming to another election. If conditions should become be-come worse and business should decline de-cline perceptibly again, Mr. Roosevelt Roose-velt will be held responsible just as definitely as was Mr. Hoover. He will be charged with having made a mess of government and any attempt at-tempt on his part to prove the condition con-dition was natural will be regarded as an alibi. The whole thing seems to be in the lap of the gods and no amount of political strategy or attempts at-tempts to amend the law of supply and demand will alter events. Western Newspaper Union. |