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Show Slump Forecast bv U S. Economists V-.' 1 e Tlireatens Plrfns tn Ra1anceBiidget Soma slackening In the rata of automobile production. Likely postponement of railroad ordara for new equipment, deapite accumulated demand. A volume of oonatructlon slightly greater than thie year. dice ted "the upswing of the bust-mess bust-mess cycle haa been temporarily I halted." They did not estimate how much I of a drop in national Income might be expected In 193s, but any drop might prove serious to the budget balancing program, I Industry Studied net deficit waa t6lio.000.0U0. This was based on total revenue of 14,-50.000.000. 14,-50.000.000. which ould notbejXi pected to increase, without higher taxes, in the face of curtailed national na-tional income. In forecasting a lower industrial activity next year, the economists analyzed prospects in a number of leading industries. They predicted: A considerable, decrease in the output of textiles, with a substantial substan-tial part of this decline occurring before the middle of 1938. Steel production less than this year. I WASHINGTON, Nov. I UPt Oov-, Oov-, ernment economists, reporting a business recession which they said will "run well into 1938," created a possibility today that President Roosevelt's plana for a balanced ' budget might be Upset. If the forecast by the bureau of agricultural economics should prove ury hopes for increased revenue and make curtailment of expenditures expendi-tures more difficult, Mr. Roosevelt has Indicated he was counting on continued business busi-ness improvement for this extra revenue and for curtailment of relief re-lief and other spending. Revenue estimates, however, are based directly -on calculations of national Income. The farm economists econo-mists predicted the steady rise tn national income aince 193$ would be broken by a drop next year below the 1937 total. I Only last week, while discussing the budget situation, the preeident expressed hope for great future increases in-creases in national income. He said it would rise from $85,000.-000,000 $85,000.-000,000 to $70,000,000,000 thia year and later might continue upward to 90 or 100 billion. Recession Forecast Vejeoeeeastwr' the bwreavtrf agrt-cultural agrt-cultural economics did not dispute this long range prospect Although it was rather pessimistic over the immediate future. It pictured business' busi-ness' as in a "relatively short recession" reces-sion" such as usually accompanies 'the general upawing of a buaineaa cycle." It predicted conditions during the second half of next year would be "more favorable than in the first half." .. But In making their usual fall estimate of business conditions to help farmers plan ahead, the agricultural agri-cultural economists minced no words in aaying their analysia in- |