| Show u ARsT ESTIMATES Of THE u 4 I VOTE VOlt IN EMPIRE 81 STATE AT I New York World Figures Show Enormous Plu PIu I j for Chanler and About Aboul j for Taft i i I I At the Same Time It Is Stated That There May Be Cause for forI I Revision Several Times Tim es Before Election N I Special to The Herald New Kew York Oct 10 The New York Tork World tomorrow morning will publish the t e result of df f a canvass made in the states of New York Tork New Jersey and Con Connecticut Connecticut Connecticut to ascertain the trend of sentiment in the three states regarding the presidential election The canvass also includes the campaign for governor of New York Tork The poll pon leads to this deduction as to the result in the three states Indicated pluralities for president in New York Tork Taft Bryan Above the Bronx 1400 Below the Bronx Totals 1 Tafts Tarts indicated plurality in entire state For Governor Hughes Chanler hove the Bronx Bront 2900 elow the Bronx Total Chanters indicated plurality in entire state New Now Jersey Indicated majorities by counties and plurality for president Taft TaCt Bryan Tarts Taffs indicated plurality Connecticut Indicated majorities by counties and plurality for president Taft Bryan Bran none Tafts indicated plurality The deductions were made by experts who based their calculations upon the figures obtained by b the World In Greater New York Tork the World made a postal card canvass and from other parts of the state and from New Jersey and Con Connecticut Connecticut estimates were obtained by the World correspondents from Republican and Democratic leaders By the process adopted by the World experts in de the vote of Greater New York Tork as Indicated by the responses received the following conclusions are reached as to the final distribution of the votes that will probably be cast For Republican candidate for governor go for fOl Democratic candidate for governor for Independence party candi candidate candidate candidate date for governor Total The Phe vote ote for 1905 1906 was Hearst Hughes Total For the purpose of the expert calculation the total vote was considered to tobe tobe tobe be in round numbers vote and Hughes vote Taking Tailing the 1906 vote as a basis the experts apply the changes in the votes on the basis which the postal card canvass bears to the total and estimate the vote of ot 1908 calculating an increase of votes over the 1906 vote as follows For the Republican candidate in 1906 Less 2295 2915 of per loss indicated by canvass Total otal of ot old vote id Plus per cent of estimated increase of Total otal estimated vote In 1908 for Republican candidate For Democratic Dem candidate in 1906 Plus 1479 per cent of per gain indicated by canvass camass Plus per cent of th estimated increase ase Total estimated estl ate vote fot for Democratic candidate in n 1908 For party partS candidate in 1908 per er cent of th in 1906 L 4 u per cent ce t of the th estimated increase of 2885 Total ted vote rote for Independence party candidate in 1908 Ih J e estimates sent by the World correspondents are those of the leaders of the two parties and not of the World They reflect the conditions as viewed by those leaders three weeks before election presenting the first outline ir of the work of forming the lines of battle The condition that exist today toda may be Materially changed during the three weeks remaining of the campaign and the figures may be revised In many instances that cannot now be anticipated anti antl The registration of voters has just begun in upstate counties The total of the majorities in the fiftysix counties above the Bronx show estimated majorities in two of them for Hughes aggregating and majorities in the other four for Chanler Chanter aggregating 2900 In the same counties two years cars ago Governor Hughes received majorities aggregating and Mr Hearst According to the estimates presented by the World today Governor Hughes will lose above the Bronx votes and Mr Ir Chanler will gain over Hearst 2523 The estimates show even more marked changes in the presidential situation Four years ears ago ag of the same fiftysix counties gave Mr Roosevelt majorities aggregating and Parker The counties covered in the table printed today show majorities for Taft aggregating and for Mr Bryan Bran of 1400 So that according to the estimates e Mr Ir Taft will lose if pres present present present ent conditions renditions continue and Mr SIr lr Bryan B an will gain 1062 The estimates shw that while Mr Taft will not hold all of the Roosevelt vote of four years ago he will command at least 75 per cent of it The reductions noted in the estimates are mainly in the factory centers A and are due to these causes First Industrial conditions affecting many thousands of Second The dissatisfaction of voters with the old parties Third Opposition to Governor Hughes because of his reforms It is a significant fact f ct that none of the new parties figure in the calculations of ot the leaders of the old parties In some of the factory towns the Socialist vote ote Is referred to but apparently Is not a disturbing factor in the opinions of oft ofLe ofte t te Le e regular organization leaders who are re depending on the hold of the older Forties J to keep voters within the old lines The slump In the Republican ma majorities maJorities s is due to many causes of both a general and local nature Mr Ir Taft is isn Isn n nr t conceded to be as popular a candidate as President Roosevelt or as good a vote getter Little if it any explanation is offered by the Republican leaders to account for this Indicated falling off In their party vote beyond the fact that It is s primarily due to industrial causes |
