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Show National Topics Interpreted J. by William Bruckart Rffi of protection for Industries which, as he said, had such protection "for a considerable period of time," and had not been able under that protection pro-tection to develop their production produc-tion to the point where the output amounted to less than 15 per cent of the amount of such commodity consumed In this country. Treasury experts have gone to work In preparation of a new tax bill. I reported to Prepare New you a month ago Tax Bill that this could not be avoided. The question now Is how much revenue rev-enue will the administration attempt at-tempt to raise. At the outset It must be remembered remem-bered that there are tax levies raising rais-ing approximately five hundred million mil-lion dollars annually due to terminate termi-nate next year. This revenue must be replaced. But there Is much more money needed, because the program of spending our way out of the depression probably will be expanded ex-panded during the coming winter. Secretary Morgenthau will have Washington. I heard a middle-western middle-western business man say on a visit to Washlng-Tariff Washlng-Tariff ton the other day Negotiations that there was one thing about the New Deal which made him feel at home. His visit was In connection connec-tion with some of the State department depart-ment negotiations for new tariff treaties with foreign countries. He pent several days In those discussions, discus-sions, and the nature of the conversation con-versation was such, he observed later, that he felt a conservative tinge remained In the New Deal. Cordel Hull, secretary of state, and perhaps one of the most thorough thor-ough students of tariff questions, recently described the tariff bargaining bar-gaining negotiations as "stepping backward" to what he considers as a sound basis for solution of tariff problems. Mr. Hull always has favored fa-vored low tariff rates, but from all of the Information coming out of the tariff negotiations, It is made to appear that the secretary of state Is willing to see some high tariff rates established where those rates the benefit of reports of his own experts ex-perts and of a study under way by a special subcommittee of the house of representatives. He also will have the benefit of a survey of the British taxing system that Is being made by a group of tax-authorities sent abroad especially for that job. But I gather from the discussions heard around Washington that It Is not the question of size of tax rates on the scientific basis under consideration consid-eration that Is considered most Important. Im-portant. Frankly, unbiased observers observ-ers contend the significance of the present tax study lies in a fact that will not be disclosed until later, namely, whether the administration is preparing to balance the budget at an early date. The resignation of Lewis W. Douglas as director of the budget links straight Into this question. Mr. Douglas Is variously reported as having Insisted strongly for curtailment cur-tailment of recovery expenditures and an early balance of outgo and income. He left the job as a gentleman gentle-man and did not criticize his former chief. Nevertheless, signs are numerous nu-merous that Mr. Roosevelt and Mr. Douglas did not see eye to eye In the matter of easy release of cash In the manner that has been followed fol-lowed since the recovery program got under way. do not engender retaliatory action on the part of foreign governments with the result that a high tariff wall surrounds the several nations. The observation of the middle-westerner, middle-westerner, therefore, must be accepted ac-cepted as some reassurance. It Is undoubtedly true that there are many manufacturing Interests In this country who are figuratively seared to death over the prospects of the administration's tariff treaty program. Nevertheless, there are factors Influencing the results of the various negotiations which, many observers believe, will react to the benefit of American Industries Indus-tries long used to high tariff protection. pro-tection. This does not mean that the new rates worked out by the negotiators are going to be comparable in any way to the Fordney-McCumber or the Hawley-Smoot rates. I am Informed In-formed also that It does not mean the new rates applying between individual indi-vidual countries that are now parties par-ties to the new treaties will be comparable com-parable to the low rates of the Underwood tariff bill. In other words, while I am not making the statement' that the new rates will be applied scientifically, I feel that the opportunity Is available for establishment es-tablishment of sound as well as scientific tariff charges. Some observers here contend on what they Insist Is unimpeachable authority that Mr. Douglas was urging a curtailment In expenditures expendi-tures and a sharp Increase In taxation taxa-tion so that the next federal budget would be In balance with the beginning begin-ning of the fiscal year next July 1. That would represent a tremendous job. Mr. Douglas knows what the problem Is and he also knows, as a big business man, how necessary it is to assure holders of federal bonds that their funds are safe. It Is to be assumed from all of the straws which the wind has blown that the break came on that question. ques-tion. If that assumption be correct, wise-acres are saying, it means that the next tax bill will be held to the minimum. The progress of the negotiations has been accompanied by the usual amount of alarm 1 Arouses that always occurs Usual Alarm when statesmen are tinkering with the tariff. I hear talk, however, purely from a political standpoint, that the administration would not dare to frighten business generally Just In advance of an election. There have been too many demands for reassuring statements from the administration, something on which business would feel free to proceed, to cause administration spokesmen to take such a chance at this time. It Is to be recalled In this connection connec-tion that the Treasury has been smiling on prospective bond buyers www Although It may be a bit ghoulish, It Is a fact that speculation has begun be-gun respecting ap-Supreme ap-Supreme Court polntments to the Speculation Supreme court of the United States. At present all of the nine Justices are In good health despite their advanced ad-vanced age. Five of tnem are In their seventies and only one Is younger than sixty. The appointment appoint-ment speculators, therefore, think that President Roosevelt will be called upon In the course of a year to name another justice. The circumstance seems to have developed as a psychological result by making guarded statements that there will be no early inflationary steps. In addition, the National Recovery Re-covery Administration virtually has abandoned Its "crack down" policy and the Agricultural Adjustment Administration has .said In several languages lately that crop restriction restric-tion will not be as rigid next year. It would seem, therefore, that the whole movement Is Just a little bit to the conservative side, but, as has been suggested, this may be due to the forthcoming election. Whether that Is correct only time will tell. Beyond the superficial election appeal ap-peal of assurance on tariff questions, however, there certnlnly Is a feeling In Washington that Mr. null can travel a long way In working out the tariff problems If he Is permitted per-mitted to do so. It Is to be remembered remem-bered always that a thousand and one Influences are brought to bear any time an administration seeks to revise the tariff. It does appear, though, that the various committees working under Mr. Hull's direction are examining each case on Its merits. Of course the conclusions they reach will not satisfy everybody; every-body; no tariff rates can perform that function, and there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth before It Is all over; but If there Is anything In prospects, the current prospects seem to hold forth more hope for a reasonable adjustment of tariff questions than have appeared on the horizon for some time. Mr. Hull has been discreetly vague In enunciating his policies and has not given business generally a definite Idea what measuring rod he Is using. It Is assumed In many quarters that he will employ something some-thing of the same policy used In his pronouncements In the world economic eco-nomic conference In Montevideo last fall. In these pronouncements Mr. Hull suggested that tariff protection pro-tection ought to be extended to commodities the Importation of which Is less than 5 per cent of domestic consumption. He also wuggestnd that there was no sound cc for maintaining a high rate and as an aftermath of the death of Speaker Henry T. Ralney of the house of representatives. Mr. Rainey's death, of course, has political po-litical significance and once the speculators were started they carried car-ried on. The present assumption Is that. Senator Joe T. Robinson of Arkansas, Arkan-sas, the Democratic leader, will be named to the Supreme court when there Is a vacancy. It would fulfill Senator Robinson's ambition and it would be a compliment to him for the yeoman service he has performed per-formed for the New Deal. P,ut the elevation of Senator Robinson would leave In the senate something of a battle for leadership there, and that Is the thing about which the politicians at the moment are giving giv-ing some thought The majority leader In the senate or the house necessarily must be something of a "yes" man. Without detracting from Senator Robinson's ability. It Is generally known that he has acquiesced ac-quiesced In all of the New Deal proposals pro-posals without having In his own mind a conviction that they were the best pieces of legislation that could be drafted; so If and when he Is elevated to the Supreme court there will be a scramlle among some of the senators who crave the honor of leadership and who also desire for political purposes to demonstrate their fealty to the New Deal. O. WeMarn Newspaper Union |