Show BUYING DONE I WITH CAUTION I I II II I I Steady Output WIthout Great Surplus Means II Nothing to FearBY Fear FearBY BY STUART P WEST Special Jo Correspondent Standard Copyright 1923 19 3 NEW EW YORK C Oct Wall 20 20 Wallstreet street t ha h made progress this week toward a 0 saner view of the tho busIness I and financial outlook I It has hall ha begun brun to get let rid of ot the indiscriminate pessimIsm pe In 1 It was wa IndulgIng and to recognize I that conditions condition which exist In certain industries Ind do not apply to tho the situation as a 0 whole The markets have felt the tho ett of this change chango Stocks of com com- com com- companies panics In an unsatisfactory un bul bui ness bul ness position ha base continued their downward adjustment M without pre pre- preventing pre preventing on venting tin other more moro fortunately sit sit- situated sit situated from moving up Where here as asMith Mith the steels steela teel and rail railway ay equip equip- equipment equipment ment month the th trade trad prospect pro pct Is more uncertain the th related rebated stocks locks have been doing little more mor than han stand stand- Inc ins Ing still This la is I quito quite as aa a It should be In Ina ina ina a market which Is gradually resuming re- re suming after arter an Interval of unrest Its it normal function of interpreting outside conditions condition Production has ha outrun consumption in certain c lines In oil In automobile tires tiros In boots and shoes hoc and In let let- lether les Ic her her- with resulting declines decline to ul ui able or losing lo prices price But Dut there has ha been no excess The Th business bu community hM has not reco recovered ored from Its It bitter lesson leson of three ears ago It Is go- go goIng goIng ln co-ln Ing to an extreme of caution In bu Ing only for tor Immediate ments menh In refusing to load up Ith goods which later on It might find itself unable to sell fell at a profit O BIG SURPLUS But while this thle thi gives rise rl e to an atmosphere of ot more or less under under- uncertainty uncertainty It Is not a sign of Merely supplying the th current do- do demand de demand mand and and not counting much on forward orders means mean a very wholesome business volume volum as alt all the acc accepted data go fo to show Moreover Ina inasmuch ln much as a there la- la 1 with the th exceptions exception no noted noted no bIg bit surplus production to Work ork ork oft off there la is I nothing to suggest the movement being belne- b ln Interrupted The check If It It were to come would come from the th outside from from sill sill- advised agitation In tn congress or because business men got ot It Into thel that there was as danger of a radical program winnIng out In next ve ear ears ear's r presidential cant cant- palm cani-palm pale pale-n HIGHER COSTS Just as aa a the th relation of consumption consumption tion to output differs widely as 18 a be- be between between bo tween Individual industries so don does the th problem of ot high labor costa cost The Tho retail trade has haa ha been able abbe to absorb these Increased ex- ex pease without difficulty corn compensating pen pen- sating Itself by advancing prices prIce but not nt enough to be b felt elt In tf e tio manufacturing centers center wages have risen more than the things thine whIch the ware wage wac earner carn r has haa ha to buy In Inthe the agricultural sections outside the wheat territory the lh same ame thinS thing Is true tru The Th rise In farm form prices PriceR has ha outstripped the th riso In most articles article I which the th farmer needs The farmers farmer farm en buying power Is therefore larger larcer than It was wa a year o ago alO These Th are re ar the th reasons ra on why hy In Inthe the general distributive trade higher costs cots have been no deter deter- rent rant It has ha been easy ay to pass pasa them on to the th public FORCES PRICES DOWN Where there has ha been an over over- overproduction overproduction production It has haa ha been Impossible to make mak good food higher pay rolls by I raising prices price On the th contrary as aw we have hav seen sen it In the tho th oIl 01 and tire Industries the th competition brought about by the th excessive output has rapidly forced prices price down There Th r are re ar other th r instances Instance where wh r there has ben been no apparent overproduction overproduction overproduction tion and yet a a considerable Increase In wale wage schedules The Th nult of the attempt to make mak the consumer Sri er stan stand the th extra charge ch rg still re- re remain re remain main In doubt dut Coal COlLI Is one on of these then cases calOB cai and steel teel tl I Is another r In Inthe Inthe the steel it l trade trad however two Inter Inter- eating which bear upon this question were made mado during the week One Ons On we wu the th Republic Iron and Steel fl report showIng bowing that despite the increase In ware wages and nd the change from 12 13 to the th lour day net n t earning i were w r larger larcer In Inthe inthe the third quarter than In la the til first brat The other oth r Ii l I th that t the th largest larg-eit cus- cus customers cus customers tomer of the th steel tel the mills mill th rail rall-rad rall road road-hae ha hav hae e broken brok n the th deadlock Tey y have hav cea ceased ed to hold oft off for lower prices pric and have hav entered the them m market to do business for 1924 1124 It Itis ItI is II interesting to recall that It as 1 railroad buying which first turned the steel tI market in January 1122 1922 PREDICTIONS UPSET With the th of at the th Ocr Ger German man crisis predictions and theories which were ere wr popular six alx lx months ago are ar being upset The currency system ytm has ha lone gone gon completely to pieces and yet h has not brought about the th Industrial collapse which has hal been be n the th favorite favorit theme of f statesmen n and ant economists pp Pp- Pp Pp an and economic attain affaIrs have reached d the th danger danler It stage Ke the th state tat of Incipient revolution and there are no signs Igns of the th repercussion happily for the th rest rt of the tho th world It took 1700 marks mark a year yar to make mako makeup up a dollar This Thi past put wok Meek eek It has hILS ta taka n as a high as a ten tn billion marks marka Yet despite this appalling appal shrink shrink- shrinkage ag are age the th latest monthly figures show vr a d cra e of only In a total of German 0 purchases from the th UnIted d States State GERMANY BUYING The point Is that Ger Ocr Germany Germany many has haa ha kept k pt on working and so 1111 long as al a a a country does do oes this there ther can be bno beno no question of break brak down Inman industries have havo out auf fared f r enormously by the th seizure of the Ruhr Still till theY thy have hav been able to f produce an amol amole surplus for export German shipments to the United d States State Stat according to the thelast last monthly statement were 3 00 larger larser than In the th corre corre- corr ri spending month a year ago and or not far from per p oeM larger larler than two Years y ari ago o This explains why Germany armany des des- despIte pit del pIte pit all tt its It Is able abl to pre pee pr serve em rr a a buying J In tn the tb tog tor alga markets market |