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Show Jaos Still Powerful but ppjjl Position Grows Weaker Shipping Losses Reduce Flow of Material; jJTi l Efficiency of Pilots Suffers From T&xJ Poor Tactics in Combat. v i3L By BAUKIIAGE Neu Analyst and Commentator. WNO Service, Union Trust Building. Washington. D. C. Paradoxically, nn the eve of what may be the greatest land battle America has ever fought, this country coun-try is turning Its eyes eastward. The nervous Berlin radio has already al-ready announced that the war in Europe Eu-rope may be decided In three months. That statement lends color to the hints that General Rommel, the one Nazi commander who seems to see eye to eye with the Fuehrer and yet is apparently permitted to work out his strategy according to military science and not Hitlerian intuition, is going to fight It out, win lose or draw, along the outer edges of Normandy. What effect the events following the attempt on the life of Hitler will have on the Internal situation situ-ation In Germany or what the incident in-cident indicates about Germany within, remains to be seen. Whether the German collapse comes before the leaves turn, or after the snow flies, the next weeks will see emphasis placed on the Pacific Pa-cific campaign. It Is not beyond the realm of possibility that pence can be wrung from Japnn well within with-in the current 12-month. The fall of Tojo and his cabinet indicates the gravity with which the Japs are looking ahead. First, let us examine the material upon which Japan counts to make tip her sinews of strength. She has managed to keep her main battle fleet "in bring" as the phrase goes. Like Germany, toward the end of the last war, in spite of bcavy losses in auxiliary craft, she till has enough of her big war wagons wag-ons to stage a "battle of Jutland," or at least to attempt It. Second: Japan still has a large, tvcll-tralned, well-equipped army, rhat army has never been subject lo the wear and tear of sustained dottle with an equal. It is true that ihere are many retrents which we save read about when the Japs have itaged what was advertised as a oig offensive and which petered out with the flag of Nippon back where it started from. However, It is gen-(rally gen-(rally agreed among military men '.hat. except perhaps In the recent ibortive morale drive Into India, ind in Burma where General Stil-ell Stil-ell and the Chinese armies are moving to a Junction, the Japs have jsually done just about what they expected to do and could have done more If they had marie up their minds to it. For the most part they nave not tried to win territory and nold it. They have tried to wear down the Chinese army, contribute to the impoverishment and the weakening weak-ening of the Chinese government. This they have accomplished to no little degree. They have likewise reduced the number of actual and potential American alrbases In China. Chi-na. They have made a possible land Invasion of the Chinese const harder hard-er for the Allies. Such an Invasion is considered inevitable and essen-tuil essen-tuil to AllicdVlctory. On the debit side, there are these Items: First, is one word written in the boldest hand because of the thing it tymboliies SAII'AN. V. S. Planet Within Easy Bombing Range of Japan The capture of this Island base within easy bombing range of Japnn menns many things. It tends to neutralize what heretofore has been Japan's advantage In destroying American bases In China. It brings the war figuratively, as well as literally, lit-erally, close to Japan. It registers the success of a strategy which has smashed Japan's outer defenses, her great Pacific Island empire. It proves that "Island-hopping" Is unnecessary. un-necessary. This means that the remaining re-maining Japanese strongholds such as Truk, and other outposts do not have to be knocked off one by one, they can be by-passed and starved out. if necessary. Salpan in American hands means also that the B-29's which have already al-ready sounded their warning to the Jap home folk will soon be in active ac-tive operation on a scale hitherto unapproached. Germany, like Japan, has at this writing a powerful land army. But Japan, like Germany, has a vanishing air force. Note the corollary corol-lary and see how it applies to Japan. Ja-pan. The Allied air force crippled the German air force. And as Nazi fighter-defense dwindled, so the weight of sheer numbers reduced the effectiveness of German antiaircraft anti-aircraft defense and offense, due to the bombing of her plane factories and plane-part factories and to the destruction of her pilots. Germany's next greatest weakness is lack of gas and oil. This has been caused by the destruction 'by the Allied air force again) of oil wells, gasoline refineries and synthetic oil plants. Proofs of the elTccts of this bombing bomb-ing are not limited to pliotugraphs showing the effect of Allied air raids on ball bearing plants, on the Ploesti oil wells, on the synthetic oil plants and the refineries. It is shown In the German tanks and other war vehicles ve-hicles in perfect condition abandoned aban-doned and captured because they ran out of fuel. Raids, really shake-down cruises of the giant B-29's directed against Japanese industrial plants, have Just begun. Japan is already suffering from shortages of essential materials. Her great stolen storehouses of the Philippines Phil-ippines and the Dutch Indies are a long way from home. The transportation trans-portation problem Is a terrible one Japanese shipping has been subjected sub-jected to terrific losses by our sub-marines sub-marines and planes. Distances Shrink in Far Facific Warfare Is Japan in any better position to resist air attack than Germany? The answer seems to be "no." Her greatest defense Is distance, and distances dis-tances in the Pacific theater have shrunk at a speed far greater than most people dreamed was possible. Japan's next defense fighter planes has suffered in greater proportion pro-portion than was expected. The quality, as well as the quantity of Jap planes has fallen oil so that Japan hns become stingy in her use of fighters as the Germans. The quality of her pilots has greatly deteriorated. de-teriorated. And this point blends Into another. Japan simply has not the strategic know-how of aviation. When she does send her bombers and fighters out in great numbers, they are no match for Allied power, man or plane. There is no question that as Japan's Ja-pan's resistance weakens the Allied striking power is increased. It is impossible to mention details, of course, for security reasons and it would be unwise to assemble known facts and figures concerning the type of material manufactured and the disposition of forces which, taken together, would indicate clearly enough how the weight of Allied might is being distributed. We can quote the statement of Prune Minister Curtin of Australia, for instance, who says that "this year" British forces In great number num-ber will be transferred to the Pacific Pa-cific theater. Finally, there is a third factor which seems to be a ha stoning of the end. It is dilNrult to speak l "morale" "mo-rale" in connection with Japan since the people are told how and what to think. But the tone of the official utterances has taken on a decidedly gloomy note Even as to the shifts in command - the fall of the Tojo cabinet which might havp been hailed with a cheerful fanfare, the phrases were grave and grim. It Is also reported, from sources in touch with Japan's inner politics, poli-tics, that the Jap militarists are waiting hopefully to see if the Allies grunt enough leniency in their terms to Germany to Justify surrender on their part. Although it was emphatically em-phatically denied in Tokyo it is still believed here that the Japanese representative rep-resentative to the Holy See Inid a tentative pence offer befote the Pope. Briefly, then, as the conservatively conservative-ly optimistic observers In Washington Washing-ton look at the picture rapidly forming form-ing In the Pacific, they see several factors which heretofore worked toward to-ward a long drawn out struggle In the Far East cither removed or altered. al-tered. First, the theory that the Allies must fight their way to victory, vic-tory, sen-mile by sea-mile, Island by Island, has been completely exploded. ex-ploded. Second. Japan's air forca hns been measurably deflated Third, the strategy of a blow at the heart of the empire rather than attrition at its perimeter Is now considered a reasonable certainty. |