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Show iv I (Garfield School Enrollment Down If present trends continue, "school enrollment in Utah should level off by 1992 or 1993 and then begin to decline for a few years. ' rhis prediction was made by Utah 1 Foundation, the private research 'Organization, in their latest projections projec-tions of Utah school enrollments and is based on the 1989 Fall en-jrollment en-jrollment d313 recently compiled by Xpe Utah State Office of Education. The study shows that school jpenrollment growth in Utah has v'been slowing down during the past g jfew years. Although school en-I en-I Irollments in Utah still are raising, Fl jthe increase in 1989 is less than B'half of what it was in 1986. En- I Irollments in the Garfield School iDistrict declined by 32, or 2.82 percent this year. Fall 1989 enrollments en-rollments totaled 1,103 pupils, compared with 1,135 in 1988. According to the report, "the A pprospect of a leveling off and even M a decline in Utah school enroll- Ilments during the next few years U could help ease some of the finan-j finan-j cial pressure that has been plaguing .public schools in the state." During the past 10 years (between 1978 and 1988), for example, public school enrollments in Utah rose by 32 percent, compared with a reduction of 6 percent in the nation as a whole. This disparity placed Utah at a considerable disadvantage in attempting to keep pace and compete with other states. School enrollment growth usually usu-ally is the result of two main factors: fac-tors: (1) the number of live births in the state and (2) the net migration migra-tion to or from the state. Other minor factors that could have some influence in growth are changes in private school enrollments and changes in the school dropout rate. The number of live births in Utah declined by 16 percent between be-tween 1980 and 1987 before edging up slightly in 1988. Since it takes five years before a child may enter the public schools, the birth decline of the early 1980s is just beginning to be reflected in Utah school enrollments. en-rollments. In the 1970 to 1980 decade, Utah experienced the largest influx of new population in its history. During the mid-1980s, however, (See SCHOOL Page 3-A) SCHOOL ENROLLMENT fJJ1 ontinued From Page 1-A) I0?it has been an out-migration of r pulation from the state. This i s contributed to a showdown in ntftah enrollment during recent B$l ars. With improved economic nerfinditions, there is the possibility ' a reversal of this trend, and in--jAjigration could again be a factor Owntributing to school enrollments .piS the state. Foundation analysts point out at kindergarten enrollments in m tah have been declining for sev- lal years and elementary grade en- Wllments (1-6) began heading down is year. The projections indicate iat middle school enrollments (7- ) will continue to grow until 1993 Mid high school enrollments (10-p (10-p will not decline until sometime lifter 1996. In other words, the en-)llment en-)llment load is shifting away from ie elementary grades to the middle pjChool and high school grades. g(j$ Most of the increase in school nrollments continue to be along K Wasatch Front, in Park City, nd in Washington County. Five jrfchool districts (Davis, Granite, 'Jordan, Alpine, and Washington) recorded enrollment increases totaling total-ing 4,268 in 1989. This was equal to 71 percent of the total enrollment enroll-ment gain throughout the state this year. Percentagewise, the largest increase was recorded by the Park City School District (14.6 percent). This involved an increase of 220 students during the year. The report indicates that one bright spot resulting from the large enrollment increases of the past is that they are producing an increasing increas-ing number of high school graduates gradu-ates who will provide the state with a large, well-educated workforce at a time when many areas of the nation will be facing serious labor shortages. short-ages. Between 1979 and 1989, the number of high school graduates in Utah rose by 15 percent while they were declining by 14 percent in the nation as a whole. It is expected that over the next ten years the number of high school graduates in Utah will increase by an additional 30 percent. Meanwhile, the number num-ber of high school graduates nation wide will continue to decline during this period. |