Show o J v a&ate b wis&&jam 7 I The Salt Lake Tribune glie OPINION Sunday March 15 1998 AA3 Troubles in Kosovo Didnt Just Flare Up Overnight jjThethetimeworn but perceptive moito economy stupid written on a jjaaque in the Ova! Office has worked for resident Clinton amazingly well rjStoe opinion poll after another keeps vdwnonstrating the simple fact: Most Americans seem to enjoy their country's miftving status quo even more than juicy Trails of the latest White House scandal- Even if Republican critics are right aaa this presidency just happened to fall Kgood economic times at least the managed not to undermine positive economic trends The US foreign policy may be a story though Jkess than a week after the Iraq snafu more or less cleared off thanks to the rescue mission of the UN Boss Kofi Annan the first disturbing from the Serbian province of yosovo hit the newsstands -- Scores of people killed dozens of Souses on fire residents fleeing that Wrtainly was not what Secretary of State Madeleine Albright wanted to hear from the area of the biggest success of this administrations foreign policy the 1995 Dayton peace agreement that ended the Bosnian war Everything finally seemed to be going so well in the former Yugoslavia with the multinational peacekeepers maintaining order and former enemies trying 4s last-minu- to build a new peaceful life And now this Trouble is the Kosovo strife did not begin a week ago and it did not fall out of tbe blue sky even if there are people who appear to think it did The Serbian province where Muslim Albanians make up 90 percent of the population has been a powder keg of ethnic tension for decades Even more noteworthy the entire conflict in Yugoslavia basically started here in 1987 when the current Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic then the Belgrade Communist Party chief traveled there to support the 200000 Orthodox Kosovo Serbs protesting against the 18 million ethnic Albanians oppression The Kosovo conflict allowed Milosevic to champion Serb minorities throughout Yugoslavia and he successfully rode a wave of Serbian nationalism to the presidency in May 1989 Soon afterwards he ended the autonomy of Kosovo and another Serbian province Vojvodina established by the former Yugoslav leader Josip Broz Tito in 1974 The respect and popularity among Serbs that Milosevic gained from doing that helped him in his ultranalionalist campaign that essentially led to wars between Serbia and Slovenia Serbia and Croatia the multiethnic war in Bosnia and later to his impressive victory over RUSSIAN VIEW life fa e ? K MICHAEL NAKORYAKOV the opposition in Belgrade Throughout all those widely covered events the Kosovo situation somehow never attracted the worlds attention I cant believe nobody worries about Kosovo here and they dont even want to listen a Yugoslav friend living in Salt Lake told me years ago The politicians here seem to wait for those problems to blow up in their faces and only then theyll start thinking what to do Milosevics decision to impose direct rule from Belgrade did not sit well with Kosovo Albanians Nor did they enjoy r the limit on broadcasting in the Albanian language and a ban on instruction in schools In 1992 the Albanians quietly held an election and chose a parlia one-hou- Albani-an-langua- the last thing Tirana wants What Albania may want though would be a NATO strike against the Serbs and an ethnic Albanian delegation already has visited the State Department requesting exactly that Would that help? There seem to be people in Washington who think it just the same people who believe might that President Reagan won the Cold o War that the embargo has been efficient and that sending bombers to Iraq could solve the problems there One can only hope those strategists dont prevail The worst part is the Kosovo predicament could have been avoided But the real chance to resolve it before it exploded during the Dayton negotiations three years ago wasnt taken Most everybody in the United States knew about Bosnia by then but Kosovo? Compared to Bosnian peace Kosovos problems seemed insignificant and they barely were mentioned in the final document No doubt the economy stupid still is the key to success of any government Yet maybe the time has come to add to the old Oval Office plaque something to remind the presidents that learning more about the rest of the world also may come in handy some day ment and a president Ibrahim Rugova Neither was validated by Milosevic but the real problems did not start until radical opponents the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) began killing Serb police Milosevics reaction was swift and brutal a police crackdown that supposedly destroyed the KLA leadership their families and everybody else who happened to be nearby Actually by the time the Contact BritGroup on the former Yugoslavia ain France Germany Italy Russia and the United States finally convened Milosevic already had reported that the was over operation with and there would be no more kill- anti-Castr- "anti-terroris- ings in Kosovo Milosevic might be a ruthless dictator and a political survivor but most likely he is wrong The situation remains unpredictable and difficult and not just for Yugoslavia Europeans dont want any bloodshed and they dont want another war so close to their borders either Russia in particular with its recent and in many ways similar Chechnya experience doesnt want trouble Even the government of neighboring Albania doesnt seem to be in a hurry to help their kin in Kosovo With Albanias internal problems a war with Serbia is Michael Nakoryakov is an editor at The Tribunes World News Desk Until 1991 he was a journalist in Russia Suhartos Let em Eat Cake Attitude Leaves Weaiy Indonesians Fed Up GWYNfoE DYER FREELANCE SERVICE "LONDON Let them eat cake said Marie Antoinette queen consort to when told that the French com-- uaon people had no bread Or maybe she didnt really say it but that was the story ' and it summed up the French courts so when the Revolution came "they cut off her head too As an individual as a group some of us may live an affluent life said Indo-tresiPresident Suharto on being to a seventh five-Jyeterm of office by a : assembly of 1000 people last week But "as a nation we can no longer afford to "lead an extravagant life lacked the brevity of Marie Antoi-ciette- s remark but it conveyed the same 'message for no one imagined that Suharto or any of his large and extravagant sfamily would be cutting back on their 7 own consumption It may lead to roughly "the same conclusion too "As the Suharto was sworn iin in Jakarta 10000 students were chanting Bring down prices! Bring Lou-"isX- unan-jiimous- ar hand-picke- d ajt -- down Suharto! in the old Javanese capital of Yogyakarta Out of 202 million Indonesians there can be only a few million (apart from his immediate family) who actively want Suharto to have another term as ruler of the worlds fourth largest country As long ago as November the elite was talking obsessively in private of how to persuade him to retire gracefully If he hangs on too long he couid drag them all down with him But nobody dares to raise the subject with Suharto and so the whole country continues to sleep-wal- k towards what most people think will be a disaster Over half a million people were killed the last time the government changed hands when Suharto took over from Sukarno Indonesias first president in 1965 Most victims belonged to the relatively prosperous Chinese minority (about 3 percent of the population) and as the current economic crisis deepens Muslim mobs are again targeting Chinese shopkeepers in villages all across Java The worrying thing for us is not so much the Indonesian economy said Singapores Minister for Industry George Yeoh last week but the political and strategic implications" A European banker in Singapore spelled it out more clearly: Theres been some wild talk about hordes of boat people invading Malaysia and Singapore if Indonesia collapses but now it doesnt seem so wild The Indonesian crisis began as part of the general Southeast Asian financial pamc But whereas the regions other crisis-struccountries Thailand the Philippines and even to some extent are democratic countries Malaysia with free media and independent institutions Indonesia is not Suharto has been in power almost as and by an amazlong as Fidel Castro ing coincidence all six of his children have acquired business interests in Indonesia that make them dollar billionaires Suhartos personal wealth is about equal to the whole International Monefor Indonesia ($43 biltary Fund bail-olion) and the wider family of children cronies and hangers-o- n control up to 20 percent of the national economy Suharto signed the deal with the IMF last October because Indonesias currency the rupiah was disappearing down the dram at the time But its terms require reforms that would destroy the k business empires his family has built on favoritism and government contracts He is therefore surrounded by people who desperately need him to stay in office and to defy the IMF In his acceptance speech March 10 Suharto walked away from the deal he had made with the IMF and four of his six children were there to back him up with nationalistic anti-IMrhetoric Suhartos offspring have brought in maverick American economist Steve Hanke to craft an alternative economic strategy that minimizes IMF influence He came up with the idea of a currency board that would peg the rupiah at the optimistic rate of 5000 to the dollar (it has fallen from 2500 to 11000 on the free market since July) It would be a neat idea if it worked and incidentally it would save the familys fortunes But Hanke is literally the only economist of repute who believes a currency board will work If it fails after a couple of weeks then the rupiah will go into free fall Even now tens of millions are out of work 90 percent of Indonesian companies are technically bankrupt and prices are up 400 percent After the failure of yet another attempt to stabilize tbe economy things could get really seri ous Indonesians have been robbed patronized and frightened into submission by their political elite for decades but tens of millions of them understand exactly what was behind it all The question now is not so much if or when Suharto will finally be forced to quit he will be and probably this year as how? Will it be a military coup pressure from the streets or a combination of the two? Will it be largely like most other recent changes of regime in the region or a bloody of 1965? And will it produce democracy or a new dictatorship? Nobody knows for sure but those recent regional precedents are encouraging There is no good cultural economic or historical reason why Indonesia should not follow in the footsteps of the Philippines and Thailand which both made the transition to democracy despite great difficulties Besides the alternative in Indonesia is almost too horrible to contemplate F non-viole- re-ru- n ChjynneDyeris a London-base- A W 3U iii t :i TC ltl march is the perfect time to plant some hearty 18- - and SecareGro th First Security's 575 APY CD returns 868 CDs produces robust And our yields a blossoming CD th APY Best of all both grow well in any financial climate In v Just remember to start early 18- - and th CD Our SecureGro offer expires April 3 18S8 n in ta -r 18 month f" -- To APY get one started today just stop fay your nearest First Security branch rv u- -t 'r?n 30 month no fff APY iu Gjrreniiy Giving IKK HEARTY felLrtif orris toss roe uru cm osir t COms: "Cl ET"4- - m uiiiuiM musci to ok tu sccocst mi oitxis rat iusaas in is sun m huirbr is msui i Kmun rat ie imposes fii caret ritrbmwm r first secmitt d inde- pendent journalist and historian whose articles are published in 45 countries is i menses of toe roic |