OCR Text |
Show Page The Utah Enterprise Review , 10b . Continued from page 9b Robson estimates Utah will see between 10,000 and 12,000 immigrants this year, about the same number as last year. Edgar Denny, administrator of Job Service has estimated new immigrants will account for about 27 percent of the newly employed people in Utah this year. Probably the single most depressing factor in the price of new housing is an extremely competitive market for contractors, forcing them to keep their prices for both labor and materials at a minimum. The market during 1976 has been the softest market we've seen in a long, 4 says Frank Childs of Parametrix, a pro- fessional construction cost estimator. You can tell the rate of competition by the high number of bidders for every job. We are moderately optimistic about 1977, Childs continues. We think there will be' a fair amount of work, keeping most contractors in business this year. The mortality rate among construction businesses could decline this year, especially for housing contrac- tors. Last year about 8.2 per- cent of the total number of Utah contractors did not renew their licenses, a 38.9 percent jump in the mortality rate over the previous year, when only 5.9 percent did not renew. According to Robert Frome, administrator of the State Department of Contractors, most mortalities occur in the homebuilders category. Meanwhile, the number of contracting licenses being issued by the Department continues to rise. After a 5.3 percent jump in 1975 over 1974, the number of licenses jumped from 9800 to 10,000 in 1976. The Department expects a slow four percent rise in 1977, to a total of about 11,000 licenses. Materials Will Increase As for the cost of construction materials, Childs is predicting a gradual incline in the price this year. The price should remain fairly constant during the next couple of months, and peak out during the late summer, Childs says. He estimates a total jump of 9 percent overall for the year. Last year the price of construction materials was fairly flat, he says, rising about 6 percent (close to the rate of 8-- inflation). Thayne Robson expects construction expenditures to rise 20 percent and predicts an 9 percent increase in 8-- Robert Palmquist of applications in the state, and a 300 percent increase in the number of branches approved. In addition, a steady advance continues in the number of new banks being established. year, possibly As competition increases, we could see more innovative services, speculates Mathews. He points to First Securitys Simple Interest Loan as an example of the kind of services consumers could see more of. I think banks will try to imitate our simple interest loan idea, Mathews says, adding he sees a continued interest in branching by all banks. predicting mortgage rates will remain the same this dropping slightly. The Price of Capital Schu-ma- n of Mortgage Bankers predicts interest rates could go up this year. Long term rates could move up .75 and short terms could go up .50, he says. Rates could move even higher, depending on the effect of President Carter's tax rebate program. I think the proposed tax rebate is inflationary, and beSchuman says, cause of it, rates will increase. Thayne Robson and Kelley Matthews, economist for First Security Bank of Utah, subscribe to a similar prediction for mortgage rates this year. Both agree they will rise slightly later in the year. They are about as low now as they are going to get, Robson adds. Stimulus to Savings As for savings deposits, Robson points to Carters proposed tax rebate as a stimulus for increased savings this year. The proportion of money saved from the rebate will be slightly higher than that for the rest of Robson people's income, will It bolster predicted. accounts. savings He thinks the flow of funds to savings deposits will continue this year at the same rate it was at last year, (about 11.5 percent growth rate according to Matthews). Mathews is predicting loan volume will continue at a steady rate, also. He says last year the total number of loans serviced in the state increased 14.5 percent over the previous year, reaching a total of $2.3 billion by the end of September. Gerald Christianson of First Federal predicts total mortgage recordings in Salt Lake County could reach SI .3 billion in 1977. It is expected they will amount to $1 billion in 1976, a 30 percent jump from the 1975 level. Competition for Banks "Utah will need , ' . . ' V ' i ' . ,, . 100 percent increase over 1975 in the number of branch Utah Homebuilders is predicting a 20 percent increase in the number of dwelling units built in Utah this year over last year. He is also In contrast, John Construction long time, construction costs. . January 26, 1977 bank Capital Expenditures In keeping with an eco- nomic attitude signaled by intensified loan activity, local utilities seem to be putting increasing amounts of money into capital expenditures this year. Utah Power & Light leads the way among Utah.s Continued on page 13b AIR CARGO to SAN FRANCISCO and LOS ANGELES Sunday thru Friday Nest morning delivery in-bou- nd and out-boun- d! horren- dous amounts of capital this year, predicts John Fortunately, it is considered a very good state to lend in. There is a strong pride of ownership and a stable economy. So plenty of money will be available. Banking, as an industry, will probably operate at a record level of competition this year. Last year saw a Schuman. Adelphie Cargo Enterprises Salt Lake International Airport, Executive Terminal (801) 533-081- 8 ' |