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Show Page 6A, SPECIAL SECTION, LEADER-GARLAN- TIMES, February D 17. 1977 et Mure fam prices County agent takes look This lower production will By Ray H. Finch USU Marketing Spec. Box Elder County Agent As 1977 begins to unfold, there is mixed reaction as to what the price outlook for farm commodities and retail food prices will be. On the supply side, U. S. farmers have completed the harvest of two big crops, back to back. Livestock production also is at a record high. This has resulted in large supplies of wheat, sugar, potatoes, dry beans, canned vegetables, cold storage turkeys, with large numbers of hogs and cattle in feedlots available for slaughter. This supply picture is clouded by what the 1977 weather picture will be. The drought in the western states and parts of the middle west - if it continues - will greatly reduce production estimates for the 1977 crops. exert upward pressure on prices of many crops. However, a reversal of weather conditions could still produce a favorable supply picture for most crops. As it appears now, the name of the game in projecting prices, especially in the wheat and corn belts, is weather. Outlook for 1977 FARM INPUTS Prices farmers pay for their production machinery, fuel, supplies, etc., will continue upward in 1977 at a projected rate of about 6 percent higher than 1976. This rate of increase compares to 8.5 percent in 1975 and 16 percent in each of the two preceding years. FARM REAL ESTATE Farmland prices are ly to continue like- in upward Utah and the U. S. in 1977 and beyond, despite smaller profit margins for most crops. During the year ending February 1, 1977, U. S. Farm real estate values are expected to increase by about 9 percent. Farm real estate values in Utah increased 69 percent from March 1971 to February, 1976. During the same period, Idaho farm real estate increased 106 percent according to USDA figures. higher while improved weather would put downward pressure on prices throughout 1977. World wheat crops conditions seem about normal, except U. S. and Canada; they are short on subsoil moisture. Favorable weather in 1976 and a larger harvested acreage are expected to result in a record world 1976-7- 7 grain harvest and a near record Exports are ex- pected to be down in 1977. Weather in major wheat producing areas will be the main factor in determining level in February-Apri- l. Some strength may develop in early summer, boosting prices $2 - $3 per $38-$4- levels even lower. FEEDER CATTLE Feeder cattle prices normally move up as spring approaches. However, this price increase may be dependent on improved weather conditions and strength in the fat cattle market. Still, the long term outlook is very favorable, beginning in 1978 and running into the early 1980's. Prices should show a continuing strength. Local supplies of alfalfa CORN appear adequate. Drought could cause additional feeding of animals if pasture is not adequate. This would put pressure on alfalfa and other forage supplies and would increase prices. show larger ending stocks of corn than expected at 724 million bushels. This is the largest ending stock since 1972-7- 3 crop year. Prices in Utah, February - March, projected at $2.75 - $3.50 per bushel, could be pushed up later to above the $3.00 level, with drought. SHEEP SLAUGHTER CATTLE Lambs should bring favorable prices in 1977 . Spring lambs should sell around the mid to upper $50s per hundred pounds. Prices may decline in July - November. Wool demand is strong and prices should strengthen. Medium wool in the grease Cattle feeders are facing another year when profits will be small, or Prices should be near SUGAR 0 hundred pounds. Severe drought could force price ALFALFA January stocks reports WHEAT carry-ove- r. Sugar supplies are ample. There is, however, a very good possibility of some price strength developing in anticipation of favorable legislation such as a new sugar law, lower import quotas, or a world sugar agreement with some regulation of prices. This would be very favorable to the sugar beet industry. price of wheat in 1977. A price at Kansas City of $2.65 to $2.80, from February to April, is projected. Severe drought could move prices should bring 75 cents to 90 cents per pound. Finer wools should be about 10 cents per FB's Young Farmer' is Pave Biason pound higher. DAIRY . The biggest problem fac- ing the young farmer today is the initial cost of the land, to start out with. If you're lucky enough to somehow get some ground then the next big problem is getting a loan for $100,000 worth of machinery. If you get the loan, you still need money for the first crop and some for your first herd. "If the young farmer makes it that far, he's caught in the price squeeze and, like the rest of the farmers, doesn't make any money," said Dave Eliason of Snowville. "I'm not saying it is impossible for a young farmer to make it, but it's awful tough if you start out on your own with no help from farming parents and family," Eliason noted. Eliason, his wife, and their three kids, Stephanie, 6; Shane, 5 and Derek, 2 have been farming 7,000 acres in the Snowville area since 1970. "I kind of took over the operation from my father, Bert," the young farmer said proudly. "He was the one who originally bought the ground and cleared the junipers with two cats and an anchor chain." Bert Eliason and his neighbors started the project under a government g program back in 1967. This enabled the farmers to clear the ground, burn the brush, and seed with crested wheat grass for grazing ground for their Gay-Lyn- ad-)ini- cost-sharin- cattle. With three herds, totaling over 400 head of cows, the Eliasons are concerned about available grazing, especially during the coming summer with drought conditions predicted. Although they have two wells on their ranch, they each cost $800 a month to operate in 1975, and $1,100 a month last year. "We have both dryland ground and irrigated that we grow grain and hay on," Eliason explained. "We usually produce about 1,500 tons of hay each year, but we have no ideas what the drought will do,-w- e'll just have to wait and see," he added. In the past, too much water had plagued the Eliasons in certain parts of their g farm until a the government by program enabled them to install over 5,000 feet of drain line. This will be updated at a later time when the Eliasons install a dam to prevent the runoff from being wasted. old The young, Eliason, who recently won the Farm Bureau's outstanding Young Farmer of the Year Award, also works some ground near Locomotive Springs along with five other men. This is where the cattle are wintered, and when the hay is baled it is left on the ground and the cattle merely turned into one field from the next, while they are calving. Since the soil is a boggier clay than around Snowville, teams of horses are still used to take care of the cost-sharin- herds at certain times of the year when motorized outfits can't make it through. Like many other ranchers, the Eliasons also lease BLM and Forest Service ground in the summer for grazing the herds. "We usually saddle up a horse every day of the year out here," Eliason said. "We have about 15 head that help us out on the ranch," added. Eliason sees a future the family farm, but it must become more efficient to compete with the bigger corporate operations. Especially during the current ; ' jf ' f "The next semester I found myself in agriculture economics," laughed the young bishop of the Snowville Ward of the LDS Church. "College was good, but the practical experience was more valuable than the theory," he added. "Once you get a taste of the ranch life, it is hard to get it out of your system," he said. "Sometimes the grass --' - & J ' K H t ( f ! ( i ( 11 (! . I - J :;) P m J ) wfe ,M ) depressed cattle market that was brought on by overstocking and foreign imports. Although the young Eliason has been helping his dad all his life, he hasn't always wanted to be a farmer. He originally wanted to be an engineer. So what did the elder Eliason say when college time rolled around? "You figure out what you want to do, son." So, with the best intentions in the world, Dave Eliason enrolled in the engineering progam at BYU. JT"1 Milk production will in- crease again in 1977. Cheese and butter stocks will continue to get larger. Increased support prices may bring on surpluses. Prices may average below 1976 levels. satisfying too." But what about the young farmer's wife and family? Is it too lonely living in Snowville on a 7,000 acre ranch?" "Not at all," says "We are only a few Gay-Lyn- miles from Snowville and 30 miles from Tremonton." GayLynn's father, Gaylen Christensen, had a farm, so the adjustment wasn't all that bad. "We see more of Dave and the whole family gets involved out here." GayLynn has been known to run the tractors, ride the horses, and cook for the hands, on occasion. "The kids can go with their dad and it's not hard to keep busy," she sighed. Although she likes being out of town, she would prefer a few more neighbors. "Of course, it would be just right to have a shopping n center next door too," laughed. "There are other disadvantages too," she confessed. "Pheasants flying through our windows are a good example," she recounted. "But, all in all, we prefer it out here." "If you're willing to sacrifice, be conservative, and become a hired hand for Dad for a while.-the- re are lots of opportunities and a good way of life in agriculture," Eliason concluded. Gay-Lyn- "' " '1 iil&4r $w't J I J - f : ' . .Gaylynn Klkison I eels the ninth lite is lii'iii liti;il lor more of llieir l;illier. the kids because the isn't greener on the other side of that hill, after all. It's an enjoyable lite outdoors and working with the land is n. |