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Show B u s i n ess-g r o w h fforeccasfs tfor Uinvcifo BcjsSbi made by U.offU. Duchesne and Uintah counties can expect sufficient population and economic growth between now and 1990 to permit moderate small business expansion in Vernal and Roosevelt, according to a study by two agencies at the University of Utah. However, the study by the University's Universi-ty's liurcau of Economic and Business Research and Small Business Development Center found the business outlook is not as rosy as a few years ago when it appeared energy development could insulate the area from recession. At that time, says a study report, "no one anticipated the sudden shift from energy shortage to energy surplus." Present projections are that Vernal will have sustained economic growth until 1990. Roosevelt can expect rapid growth until about 1984 and then modest growth until 1990, while Duchesne's population is expected to peak in 1985 and then decline through the rest of the 1980s, according to the report. All projections assume continuation of key energy and natural resource projects, including the Central Utah Project, the Bonanza Power Plant southeast of Vernal and the $3.4 billion White River Project to develop an oil shale extraction facility. The projections projec-tions do not cover potential growth from tar sands development and eight other oil shale tracts since the future of those projects is uncertain. For the study, the two agencies surveyed local residents to find out what types of new businesses they desired, gathered data on "leakage" of retail sales from local markets to the Provo-Orem area and Salt Lake County and collected national figures on the usual amount of retail square footage for various activities at various population levels. Findings suggested that Vernal probably pro-bably could use a new 50,000-square foot general merchandise store between bet-ween now and 1990. The city presently has about 27,500 square feet of retail space devoted to clothing and shoes. Between now and 19115, the city probably could support an additional, H,()0() square feet in that sector, and by 1990, the city may need 50,000 square feet more than at present devoted to clothing and shoe sales, according ac-cording to the study. By 1990, Vernal probably also will be able to support 45,000 additional square feet of grocery space and another 2,000 square feet devoted to furniture. However, the study found, starting a new furniture store would be "higher risk," and the additional business in furniture probably can best be accommodated by expansion of ex-isiting ex-isiting stores. Between now and 1985, Roosevelt probably could absorb about 7,500 additional ad-ditional square feet devoted to furniture, fur-niture, appliances and kitchen accessories. ac-cessories. However, it will probably be sometime after 1985 before the city can support an additional general merchandise mer-chandise store, and any expansion of clothing and footwear space would be "higher risk," according to the study. While Duchesne presently has a high level of retail leakage to the Wasatch Front, "market size and projected growth to 1990 make expansion or location loca-tion in Duchesne 'high risk,'" the study found. The study report noted that oil and gas extraction is the key source of employment as well as the most volatile factor in the economy of the two counties. In 1981, increases in oil and gas employment raised personal income in the two counties by $17 million. When in 1982, 900 mining jobs, mostly in oil and gas, were wiped out. The effects ef-fects of this drop probably will ripple down to various oil and gas servicing businesses in Vernal during 1983, says the report. Meanwhile, oil production at the Bluebell-Altamont fields has been steadily declining since 1975. "Most small businesses in the Uintah Uin-tah Basin cannot escape their dependence on natural resource development," says the report, "and for them, a knowledge of the past, present pre-sent and future of resource development develop-ment plays a fundamental role in many of their business decisions." |
