Show i Approach of W Winter inter infer M Makes kes German Chances of Success in R Russia Less Favorable F Six Weeks of Open Weather Remain Before Time for First Snows Military y Observers Foresee Collapse of Drive If Decision Is Not Reached LONDON Sept 4 The t. Tho Austro Austro- German offensive the most mORt tremendous tremendous tre tre- military movement In history his his- tory tory has has been In III progress without cs c's atlon for tor four tour months month Twice mon many of ot the shrewdest military obI observers ob old ob- ob servers said old the armies of or the two I kaisers would rest on th their lr successes In the cast and anel turn their attention to the western or southern rn front These predictions came with the tall fat of or Lemberg and with the occupation of or Warsaw But the Teutonic hosts now ar are HO miles beyond the capital capita of ot Poland They are aro beyond Poland Thero There are In fact tact from GO O to 1 miles inside Russia itself and nd still there are no signs of ot an end to th the sweep An end there must be however Ever Every Ivery day see sees the Invading armies further from flom their bases bt of or supplies Every cry day sees tho rl rigors ors of ot th the Russian winter drawing closer Every Even Everyday lay day finds the stubborn rearguard i detachments who protect the tho Russian Rusan Rus Rue sian elan an retreat taking their toll toil of or the pursuing columns It must be admitted that too much weight ma may b bc placed laced on the tho danger to an indefinite continuation nf or the tho Germanic advance ad The history of ot this war has shown German organ organ- organization equal to er e every demand put putI I upon It While th the armies as In Russia ma may be he operating far from their national n supply station Belgium I and France Illustrate the ability of ot the business departments of ot the Berlin Berlin Ber Ber- lin un war office ortice to utilize to the full every ev cv- cry ery er natural resource of or conquered territory France and Belgium virtually virtually vir vir- vir are supporting In In- arms ammunition ammunition ammunition am am- and provisions the forces In occupation And tho the Grand Duke Dule Nicholas before boford the th retreat from the Polish salient ordered the destruction of whatever r might been turned to tho the use of ot the captor It Is not too much to believe that the German Gennan en engineer engineer en- en staff already alread Is preparing for tor operation n the great machine shops of or Warsaw and K and the smaller establishments of ot Lublin Cholm Sled ice and other Important Polish towns town for or more inore than eight months has hns been heen Important an factor fac fac- tor toi In the German industrial system Wet Season Begins 1 It t is to considerations of ot season and losses os oses then that observers are arc more inclined to turn for argument that the drive Is nearing Its Us close Th The last t week has brought reports reports' of ot the beginning of or the wet Russian autumn Rains have appeared red in all the sectors from Riga to Brest LI The roads are softening and the low Jow land Jand which so frequently de degenerates degenerates de- de generates Into swamps and marshes is taking on the character of ot bogs boge Advance Alvance e over water soaked ground is ia difficult If not Impossible for an arm army burdened burdene with heavy artillery and transport trains Account of or big I g puns guns S. S mired an and abandoned have havo come already from the country east of ot The current rains In not more than six weeks will turn Into tho first snows of or winter and November November No No- vember ember 1 will see the whole bleak theatre of operations in the grip of ot freezing cold It I Is true armies have fought through h the winter as they did this year In the and sp spasmodically along long the Zura an and but the movement of ot troops were ona scale almost Insignificant as compared with that in progress today There Is IB a n strong trong conviction hero that if it a decision n Is not reached be before be- be fore roro November 1 th the campaign will willbe willbe willbe be brought to an nn abr abrupt pt If It involuntary Involuntary tar tary stop and every eQ hope the Germanic Germanic Germanic Ger Ger- manic peoples ma may have for tor victory victor will have been dissipated The most careful observers of ot events keeping as accurate an ac account account ac- ac count as possible In the circumstances circum stances of ot th the losses in the eat east place the Austro German Austro-German German caHu casualties lUes since the Galician drive b began gan at in killed wounded and prisoners pris pris- the he Russian loss losses 8 at 50 percent per percent percent cent more A conservative estimate of ot the accretions of ot the offensive ar armies armies at- at mies from the summer Hummer levies Is men leaving a net loss loss' of or a quarter quarter No figures are ter of or a a million men o obtainable of or n Russian losses aside from those furnished b by Berlin erlln and Vienna Ienna of or prisoners captured and generally regarded as 38 an which arc are exaggeration hut considering the which nature of or the op operations in engaged the es estimate estimate es- es ha have been th the fOrces vc of is not believed too Russian It Is doubtful If It the tho high forces have been Increased during of ot the known the summer r ir in view shortage horta e of ot arms and the great reat wast- wast necessarily entailed aco nhO of ot weapons no r b- b by such a retirement UI II n been making makin Three More ore Fortresses Fall Fail last Sunday has The week since repetition of ot the sixteen preceding pre pre- been a a. ceding The momentum of ot the Aus Aus- carried them sweep has tro-German tro its to and beyond the Bug Huh river and system of ot fortified po positions great secondary Three fortresses es two of ot among tho the most Importance and one formidable In Europe have been leen oc oc- oc was abandoned abandond first Brest the keystone of or the entire Russian de defense tense s system stem the resisted attacks for ten days dars then th the destroyed fortress works were I men men n marched out outto outto outto garrison of ot m Germans Germane Germans Ger Ger- the and to Join the field arm army mans mane took possession Olita midway guarding between no Ko and a a. passage of ot the temen 1 r river er was abando abandoned a to the Germans on Thurs Thurs- day night Not Not- a a. fortress of ot the first class and Germanic armies stands between tho the defenses of ot Petrograd The successful uc retirement con ducted all an along the line by Grand Duke Duko Nicholas which has entailed the evacuation and destruction of or originally fortresses es costing Russia more than lute has ha stamped him as one of ot the worlds world's military geniuses The whole German Austro plan of ot campaign was waN prepared with witha a view either cither to enveloping the Rus- Rus sian armies or cutting it into pieces and 1 destroying Its usefulness as 88 a war machine Tho The Polish salient was the first trap By 13 stiffening hl his hla right and left teft wings wing along the tho river and tho the Cholm railway re- re the Russian commander In chief held back the Teutonic armies ar armies at- at mies mice assigned to the tho enveloping op operations operations op- op until his hla armies on the War Yar saw Vistula front retired beyond the defeated the danger line lino and signally maneuver maneu line Again on the Brest the Germans returned to their c enveloping enveloping wel- wel plan Field Marshal Von Mackenson Mackenson Mackenson Mack- Mack enson from the south and Field Mar Mar- von on lIndenburg from Crom the north ought hought to get bet behind this front Again the they were held oC off until the Russian center evacuating Its positions es escaped escaped EB from torn tho the danger zone Begin Third Envelopment Move Xo No o sooner had the failure to turn tori tho ho Bug river barrier become ap ap- ap I Parent however than the Germans German he began an their favorite maneuver Er for th the third time Early In the week Austrian Austrian Aus Aus- trian cavalry c. which had occupied Rovel Kovel southeast of or Brest sk PlIn k railway which bisects the marsh and forms one of at the two avenues ues ot of retreat for tor the Russians from tho the Bu Bug river district At the same time lime the portion of the arm army un under cr Field Marshal von van operating north of ot no Io began an nn offensive which has hns as Its objective a point west wesl of ot Minsk which Is a Junction on the Mos Brest cow railway rall the only onh other rail mil line I of ot retreat from the Bug From the developments lc since Wednesday the tho center of or the campaign campaign campaign cam cam- promises to Lo shift from from the Russian Hussian Rus ittis- sian elan center to th the right tho region i above no Ko where the Von Yon bUl burg command Is in motion The linein line Une lineIn In this sector begins at the Gulf of Ri Riga a about twenty miles west of or the Port of or Riga It follows the Aa river In a n. semicircle south of the elt city and touches the at nt It follows miles up Uj tho the river rl Hrom It bends awa away to the I south Kouth where it pa passes ses now about about midway between no lo and Vilna Terrific battles only comparable in intensity to tho those e fought ought alon along the r In the early ar days das of August when the Russians were fighting forthe for tor the tho safety of or the armies around Warsaw Warsaw War War- saw aw have been In pro progress ress nil all through this sector since Thursday The Russians hero are engaging with I full commands the need for r rear rearguard rearguard ar guard actions not having ln appeared I I Their purpose e is 18 to hold the Germans off ort from and and consequently consequently con con- I from Minsk until the armies ar armies armies ar- ar mies from tram the lie Bug river rl reach the new positions prepared for tor them nt The objective e of the tho retreating commands now Is believed belle to hethe be he bethe the lino IIno lIda D no Ho Here mash lands to I the west will wilt afford atford protection to toI much of ot the position and a north and south railway In the r rear nr will provide pro transit facilities from one end to the other This railway connects at well velt guarded Junction with trunk lines lIne to Petro Moscow Moscow Mosco Mos Mos- Its principal weakness weakness weakness weak weak- co cow and Odessa ness as seen by authorities here Is Its exposed right flank which the capture of or Riga on the occupation of ot tho lie gulf gul of or Riga and would permit the Germans tb to turn Aviators Active in West The rho news s of or tho the week from the western theatre has been contributed largely lJ by the French and British aviators The former have been heen making raids in force over manufacturing manufacturing turing luring towns 11 11 Baden and with their British comrades have h been eD particularly particularly irl active e against the great German northern Franco stations in f supply and Belgium The success g with which large squadrons of ot air craft can be maneuvered Ill in one Instance last luat French machines week sixty employed in in one attack attack line has brought renewed for tor mat material rial In Increases increases In- In r creases in the British air fleet J If It Jt Itis is possible for tor sIxty aeroplanes to act In concert it Is argued what whal is 18 to prevent of thee raft earring their capacity of bombs hombs from descending on Essen and the Krupp works the the German Gelman military machine machine machine ma ma- heart of or the chine Hand Han grenade fighting and th the usual artillery practice the the only of oC provided TI week weI ln in the trenches In Fronce Germans shelled and Arras but bul to no effect and a large squadron of or allied 11 warships bombarded the German Gorman naval base hase at nt coast above c Zeebrugge on the B Belgian Ostend German coa coast t defence ce artillery artil artil- artillery and the naval ol guns uns to replied lery er r little damage seems em to hl have ve been In- In on either side The situation for the allies at t Gar Gal is showing ml imp improvement improvement improve improve- ment duo due to the arrival of reinforcements reinforcements rein rein- of men and ancl artillery The British war ar office l last t w week ek thought ht optimistic too it well to discourage e accounts of or the operations a against and Issued lI u l I the Turks however statement ment in which It said the objects ob objects ob- ob not been campaign have of ot the work willbe will willbe willbe I attained one and that costly cosily re- re the Ottoman be necessary before Is red reduced The most Important development de the consolidation consolidation consoli consoli- of or the fighting has been dation of ot the two allied forces on tho the where whelo tho the contingent cpu con Gulf Gult of ot Saros Baros shores tin gent landed two weeks ago aJo at Sula Sulva Sul- Sul has linked Ines with the Australians Australians Aus Aus- va a ba bay and New ew Zealanders at al Art Arl Bu mu Fight for Sari San Bahr Desperate fighting occurred on Sari SaTi Sa Sa- Sa- Sa ri Ti 1 Bahr hill bill the occupation of ot which is necessary before the communications lions from the tho advanced ad Turl sh right can bo be cUL ciu The Australians reached the summit of or the hill but the arrival of or fresh Turks Tm-ks enabled the dl division defending tho the position to undertake a counter attack that dislodged the colonials and sent them back to the base of ot the hill The allied army at the tho tip of ot the peninsula penin penin- hula sula holding the front and facing Achl Achi Baba apparently is waiting waiting waiting wait wait- ing for the outcome of ot the operations around Sulva ba baell bay A veil ell of or mystery has descended over the Austro Italian theatre in thelast thelast the thelast last week Th The official communications from Rome have almost Ig Ignored ln- ln nore nored 1 the tho Isonzo sector tho the most Im Important ira ira- of ot the entire mile mlle front and which has seen the only serious rl fighting since Ince Italy entered the war From the Austrian reports it may be he Inferred that the It Italian offensive has hac l lo lost t Its force torce and that a counter counteroffensive counteroffensive offensive e I Is being undertaken b by the army defending lIn Gorizia and anel the tile ap approaches ap- ap to Trieste Rome nomo on Tuesday mentioned that thata a n. military road built Jt b by the Italians near was wa held b. b by the Austrians but hut otherwise the c censorship censorship censor censor- ship has pr prevented any actual news new o of the lie hc operations from reaching tho the world Rt Reference nce Is made to actions in inCarnia Carnia anti and In the Tyrol but as It ft has been noted lre frequently In these reviews these activities are nothing more than outpost skirmishes for the possession of or points or of vantage In Inthe intile tile the mountain passes |