| Show IF CONSTANTINOPLE FALL FALU THE BERLIN TO BAGDAD BAGDA D REAM DREAD By FRANK H. H SIMONDS r w This is the second article in the Simonds Simond se Seri Copyright 19 t 5 by the New York Tribune It Il is natural It was Inevitable that thata a world with its attention fixed upon the European battlefields should see in the fight for Dardanelles for Constantinople Constantinople Con Con- one phase of the strut gee gle to defeat de teat the tho immediate German ends and alms Thus the observers ha have vo pretty generally agreed that the fall Call or of Constantinople would mean the of Russia the breaking o of that blockade of ot winter and the kaiser r which has shut of oft off the armies o of the czar from rom the ammunition am of his allies the elimination elimination elimina tion o of Turkey Turley from Crom the battle line of the central powers and the permanent per per- manent disposal o of the Balkan problem probe problem lem for Cor the present war Once the allied flags fly In Pera once the and the Dardanelles Darda Darda- Dardanelles nelles are arc open to the tho passage of or the allied fleets and what is quite as essential closed to those whom the n I allies allies aUles desire ue nn 10 w shut out Rumania I and Bulgaria will have to make their terms w with th the masters of or Byzantium and Greece can be Ignored as asI asa asa I a negligible quantity In the same fashion any Turkish attack upon Egypt and the Russian frontier can be reckoned unlikely for tor after arter tho the fall Call ot of the capital there thero is small smal chance that the friends of Germany Enver Pasha and his Young Turks will long survive the disaster So far Car and in terms of the Imme Imme- Immediate Immediate diate fate strategy o of the war the value of at Constantinople In the game ha has been pretty clearly grasped rasped by the ordinary observer Yet this Is only a R minor angle of oC the greater lem Constantinople will not merely bring down In its fall the last remainIng remain Ing walls of oC empire in Eu Eu- Europe rope rope rope-It It will mean the complete breakdown of ot the most ambitious the most colossal of ot all the German Germar bids for a place In the sun It willbo will wll willbe bo be the end of the dream still sUll cherished cher cher- In Berlin only now beginning beginning- to lose Its power to awaken apprehension apprehension hension in London Paris and Petrograd Petrograd Petro Petro- grad of at a German advance along tho the road of or Alexander the tho Great from tram I the tho to the tho Euphrates from Byzantium to Bagdad and beyond to I II the tho frontiers of India Itself I It is this aspect o of tho the fate tate of Constantinople that has a permanent Interest and value and deserves a I pa passing notice even now no when the interests of at battle are uppermost uppermost up up- In all minds I From Berlin to Bagdad Achieving her unity anI only In 1871 I Germany German came too late Into the field to share in the time partition of ot the better better bet bet- ter portions of the globe available for colonization In Africa Great Britain had by conquest and colonization colonization coloni colonl laid the time foundation of ot empire at the Cape and was already concentrating concentrating con con- her attention on Egypt while between her color wa was the I most frequent J. J France rance had occupied pied Algeria since 1830 was about to take Tunis and from the time north the west and the south was already preparing pre pro paring to begin those wonderful color cola vial expeditions expeditious which were to carr carry her color from rom Algiers to the Congo from rom tho the to the Pillars o of Her cules cities In Asia there was still less promIse promise prom prom- Ise Great Britain in India and the straits France In Indo Indo China China had made their supremacy beyond question ques ques- tion Australia and Now Zealand were British the Americas were closed by the Monroe doctrine For Fo many years Germany was to contest contes with her British and French rivals rival for African colonies but that race race rac was lost before It began and the fact fac was not hidden to German observers They had come too late But in the east o of Europe south o of the Danube and stretching across the straits into Asia Minor 1 and beyond beyond be be- yond ond there was a field for tor Germany It had a double advantage It it could coul be reached through Austria an all ally not a rival without crossing the time seas It was then open to German armies while the conquest of or African colonies colonies colo colo- nies remained impossible while British Brit Brit- ish naval supremacy was assured It was too a natural and easy lin linof line of oC advance once the time little tittle Balkan Dall peoples were brushed aside an anthey and they could offer no real real resistance and I in to Austro German Austro-German German might Asia Minor 1 there was a world once one the center of ot prosperity and civil civili- antler now become almost almost but ut still rich In all the po poo pod po o of r industrial and Thus Thug it was that German I many years ears ago to dream o 0 ot Aire Ire which should be fouti rou I the he closest commercial am tween Austria and Germany cine chic penetration first then t tary pry control of or Turkey Fr Fri tin lIn n to Bagdad through Au Aua man territory ry and through U of I n a Turkish a-Turkish ally or vassal 1 road pad was to connect time the he Euphrates and In due U ti man ian military power was to a Suez and the Indus to str I Great Britain at two vital vital p p The Bagdad Railroad i b The story 7 ot of o the be the hel Bagdad Bad railroad ad is a maia mar mai us on o f romance and a few rew hr brier brief years the German the world baa bas learned teamed to d d as a 3 diplomat had cc Briton at the golden horn H the first friend ot of the tho sultan kaiser was the ally ot of the lu the hierarchy of ot Islam Hi JT were training Turkish 1 his engineers n in were crossing M Minor by the road of ot Alexand of 01 Cyrus The sick man of ot the seemed suddenly galvanized man and Austrian ported Turkish rule or rath ratty rule in Macedonia Ma The there was prolonged with tl deliberate intent that it shot day yield to German Austro All the ambitions of at Serb Bulgar Dulgar were crushed down 1 t 1 Turk ruthlessly with the 01 of at covert aid of ot the Germans 1 effort at reform went to wrE wn cause the Turk sure of oC his felt no fear of ot his old foe toe no regard for or his ancient a ally Hy It was true tnIe and the time Tur Turl bed it ft that what Germany at was ultimate conquest bu bul meantime her purpose was f ii k with that Uial o of the s Interested In keeping because sho she purposed t to rulE rub Russia and anel France had thee the fixed on Constantinople and anc and Great Britain had taken Cyp Gyp ruled supreme in Egypt des dc nominal recognition o of the 1 lr kIt It t was the time dream of or the theT T 1 restore estore his ancient empire longed to Egypt 1 Algeria to take up t pathway of glory along t. tie e ern era shore of ot the As for tor Germany such an slon sion struck at France and E I Controlling the sultan sho control the spiritual commas comma most of the Mol dans darts not alone those subject Turks but also the Great Britain of France Russia Once the time Bagdad 1 connected Constantinople wi widad widad widad dad made Junction with the time railroads which led down t o Egyptian frontier to Mecca h hway hway hway way o of empire was ready The Balkan Barrier 4 4 To the completion o of her her hei plan the small Balkan stag slat bia bla and Bulgaria were a dir I net rier Greece only onh a potent stacIe stacle since Greece dreams dream as us it then seemed o of ing Salonica oven even Constan and restoring tho eastern stern em was then essential that Serl Ser Bulgaria should be made va vas conquered Above all It wax was sary that they the should should not milted matted to expand at the exp eXI Turkey In due course of tir tria could and did hope to toto toc to Salon to touch the time jj tl b Continued on p n 6 61 CONSTANTINOPLE from page oj 4 4 Turk through gh Serbian pro prey years e ago when Austrian occupied the of NovI the junction between Turkish Germau territory exA exA ex- ex A railroad coming south into and through ugh Bosnia to edonia was planned and ned Qed because it was believed In and Vienna that It would cr or and less expensive to con con- erbia and take the tile Belgrade Belgrade- a railroad the main Orient the Ute Aegean than to cona con con- a now new line through the dlf dif eglon it was Serbia which the tho only 8 serious riOUS ob ob- to 10 the Austro German If lf pro pro- Serbia remained Indo hide t ab above ve all if It Serbia were vere i annex Bosnia and the thc San San- Bazar if she were able her flier he lie window on the sea seat would cease to be walled Austrian and Turkish terri tern helpless Thus it the first r r. r the Gorman Austro-Gorman considerable de tIe with the program he passing of ot Serbia Austrian ja to the Ute Russian with the r. r and the assassination of AI AI- i. i accession of ot Peter always It is essential st er r. r that the to re Russian it 1st ambition bad counter to tho the German long desired Constanti She eShe had fought and had many wars just missed ore ro tJ the petting Ketting b her ncr r troops congress of Berlin BerUn At reached San Ste Ste- that time timo b by the treaty of I Ir Russia Russin had 5 r u arla created a which was to In- In n- n and thus Close doso n door to the theM M nf ol ot Berlin the Aegean and the thc t l loft t. t the Turk had torn a at Salonica up the tue ke Alarm S the 1 plan r Young IY interruPted revo Ger Ger- r Por or the moment it s seemed emed as if fC the new order would look to London and Paris above all It seemed likely that it might create a strong Independent Turkey and this would be fatal to the whole German German Ger Ger- man plan In fear tear of or this Austria annexed Bosnia which she had long Jong occupied with the tho consent of the thc concert of Europe given at Ber lin Hn But the thc annexation of Bosnia had hada a disagreeable consequence Italy was the ally of at Austria and Germany Germany Ger many but site she was also their thell rival rhal In the near east cast She dreamed of restoring the tho empire of ot Venice in inthe inthe inthe the Aegean and by no means favored favored fa fa- fa ored the tile advance o of Austria to Salonica the supremacy of the thc kaiser at tho the golden horn Accordingly Accord when Austria annexed Bosnia Italy's lys adherence to the triple alliance alliance al liance was only to be had by tho ho evacuation of the of Novi Novi- Bazar and the consent to Italian occupation occupation occupation oc oc- oc- oc of at Tripoli rhe Tho former of or these concessions b by Austria led to the Interruption of Austrian occupation of ot the lie tiny buffer butter district separating Montenegro Montenegro Montenegro Monte Monte- negro from Serbia the latter led to the thc ruin of ot Turkey for the Italian war in Jn exposing Turkish weakness brought the lie Balkan states into an alliance against the Os manU When Italy had done clone Bulgaria Bulgaria Bul Bul- garia sarla Serbia Montenegro j BUl-j and Greece attacked the Turk and in fri a a brief war swept up practically all of his European territory This partition of Turkey If It should persist was Instantly fatal to tho the great Berlin to Ba Bagdad dad dream Between the thc Danube and the golden goldenhorn goldenhorn goldenhorn horn there now Interposed three compact states slates joined b by alliance and increased by large laige accessions of territory and population Unless they separated tho they could not be attacked safely because Italy would not Join her Gorman Austro-Gorman allies in such an attack and the thc triple entente backing tho the Balkan alliance would be ho a force beyond the powers of or the tile Austro German armies who would have also to expect expect ex the possible appearance of Italy In iii the lie ranks of the foes Coes Reread Bernhardi and it will Instantly In Instantly In In- be seen how completely he lie recognized tho he extent of ot the disaster disaster dis dis- aster Incident to the lie Italian attack upon Turkey indeed he lie ventured to say that It would have havo been better better bet bet- ter tor for Austria and Germany to have ha I supported Turkey and attacked It Italy I Austria's Last Gamble Gambie I In this situation Austrian statesmen statesmen statesmen states states- I men supported by German maae mace a alast alast alast last desperate gamble and succeeded I In breaking up the Balkan alliance Bulgaria was persuaded to attack I Greece and anti Serbia which together closed the road to the thc Aegean to the lie golden horn the lie road of Austro- Austro German ambition Bulgaria victorious victorious victo victo- rious would become wholly dependent depend depend- ent ont upon the will of oC Vienna and aull Berlin Ber Der lin un lIn which could alone protect her from Russian Russan anger anser To Bulgaria would fall all of Macedonia the tho roadway of Austro German Austro-German German empire But the Austrian plan ended in disaster Bulgaria attacked and alid was defeated Now Macedonia was divided divided di dl vided between the Greek and the tue Serb and two vigorous little states closed the door to the east More than this Rumania had changed sides and was no longer a sure friend of ot the lie central powers Italy too had shown still further hostility It ity and the new state ate of or Albania had in a few months developed into a bone of at contention between Vienna and autI Rome It was no longer a mere question of opening a road from the Danube to the sea of at Marmora it It was a question of preventing Serbia from repeating the exploits of ot Sardinia Sar Sara dinia and sweeping up all the southern south south- ern erit Slavs Slays from rom Cattaro to Trieste It was still possible if It Serbia were crushed to open tho the road but If tr Serbia were left to consolidate her gains with the Slav populations of at Austria becoming more and more rea restive LIve with Russia daily dally growing stronger the time was vms certain to come como when all nil hone hope of ot the expansion expansion sion slon of ot the central powers po through the thc Balkans to Asia Minor would bo ho at an end and France rance had acquired Morocco Italy Tripoli Germany had won wn some square miles of ot Congo swamp as ns the price of ot her consent to tho the French occupation of Fez The last real opportunity for tor German Austro expansion was slowly flickering out The roar road from tram Berlin to Bagdad would soon become Impossible to follow Al Al- ready read Great Britain was making a abid abid abid bid for tor the lie Persian gulf terminus There were too many intricate and conflicting Issues Involved In fn Inthe inthe the dispute of 1914 4 to permit It to tobe ho he said with accuracy that any ono one Armageddon but the importance of ot Ui the o German Austro dream of ot hegemony In Asia Minor cannot be bo overlooked Having thus recalled these facts fact In recent history it Is easy to seo see how much greater are the issues beIng being belog be be- ing log fought out at the tho straits than appear appeal on the surface The last chance of German colonial empire hangs upon the thc Turkish lines of ot Pasha Dasch and Achl Achi Baba Already Al AI ready the tue outposts of at the he kaiser from Kiao-Chau Kiao to the Kamerun have been swept up German Togo and Southwest Africa arc are memories German East Africa is helpless and waiting only for the coming of the lie invader If It the thc shall succeed in bursting burst burst- ing lug open the lie seaward gate to Constantinople Constantinople Con Con- th then thOn n Russian possession of the Turkish capital Is assured This would be but an inconsiderable reward for Russian sacrifices sacrifices for for forthe the lie long terrible months that |
