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Show Financial and Business Review Stock Market on Delicate Brink May Make or Break With Nature of Newt; Event Are Significant By Major Alva Le MlnifW Ban. Dtinlit, J. A, Hafl. AC. ' THC PA T MONTH. . Evrntg of tha paat month of apodal plffniricancw to lnraators aa4 atudanta of thg mariit hava bora: (a) Tha Japan di oaat or. (b) Tha oa pi tula tloa af Qormany. . (c Tha racor4 railroa4 raporta. d Tha axooiraat ahowtng of tha federal raaarva ay at am. praatte llquidaUon la oil atocka. P'ECTS OP THI JAPANCtK DISASTER. Thg ratrattablp ataatroph4 In Japan waa much xaggora(ed la tho first raporta an4 aa a rogult ihora waa oofipldarabla palling; of Japan a pond. Thla action laat ad but a dap or two. Aa goon aa diroct eoromunlcatlon oooid ba rooatabllahod and a mora oaroful eatlmata mada of tha loaaop aaatalaad tha mark at aulcklp roactad. Japanoo bonap ar now goillnp; only a nmctloo lower than bofora tha aarthquah Tha hoiomuat In Japan hag ratiaod a loaa of fg and proporty par ha pa Incalculabla. Much aa thla destruction destruc-tion la to ba deptorod. and norriMo aa it all In to conirmplata, certain bonrflclal affMtg from It ara bound to reault. Tha roaponao mad by America to th how of thla dlaaator waa ao prompt and offoetlvo lhat It la not too much to raport an entirely dlfforant relationship davaloptng; ba-twean ba-twean tha two eaunirloa, Tho 'Vapa-neaa 'Vapa-neaa menace" may aaslly bo auc-.Gcedod auc-.Gcedod by "tha paoo of tha faclfic." Havaral llna Of American buelnraa wtU ba stimulated by order for re-, placement materials, especially atoal. 1 lumbar and copper. Certain preliminary prelimi-nary order have already been received. re-ceived. The booking of forward buNlnrse In the stel Industry constantly con-stantly declined from March until the middle of September, Hlnr that ttma orders have ahown an Increase due directly and Indirectly to Japanea buslneaa. THE GERMAN SURRENDER. Official announcement by tha Herman Her-man government that paaalva realst-anca realst-anca in the Ruhr I to cease failed to atrengthen the market. Surprlsa that Iho market failed to rpond wnp oa-preaard oa-preaard br the new dllatchea and many financial wrltera. Of course, th raaion for the (Allure waa that thla acting) of tha GPrman government In do way solveg tha Ruropoan problem. Tha proa pec i of European buying power being reatored la no c)oar than It waa before. Franco la yt to be heard from and Oreat Britain la yet to announco her plana. These two countrtep are the real factors to tha dlapute. Oermany ceased to bo an element to ba reckoned with when arte lost her military power. Her laat feebla weapon waa paaalva reslatano. With thig gh waa able to cause pome damage to Franc, but only at tha coat of more harm In herself. Thla weapon la now abandoned and Oermany Oer-many must accept whatever urmi tha French rhooee to Impose Whether American busineaa will be benefited or not will dapend entirely On th terma Imposed, if central Europe Eu-rope la to he reatored to a definite rieaca batla and encouraged to regain la old time prosperity, then wa may expect restored credit condltlona and a market for our aurplu. if, on th other hand, the terma are auch aa to prevent a recovery In the economic life of central Kurone and a return to a sound peace basis, then wa muat reconcile ourselves to the fact that Kurope cannot become a cuatomer for our surplua for long years to come. The faVt must not be loot sight of tha4 Kurope, Inataad of Battling down to a peace basis, putting averyttody lo work. Increasing taxation, decreasing decreas-ing government txpehritturee f balancing balanc-ing the budget) and exporting mora than importing. la doing Just tha opposite. op-posite. With the ewepllon of Oreat Britain. and one or two of the amailer eta tea, no country In Kurope appears to fe making an honest and Intelligent effort ef-fort tu rebuild ita credit atructure by the proealo method Of hard work corn-blned corn-blned with thrift. Hlnce th war atgrted in 114 we have been shipping to Kurope a great deal more pood a than ahe haa been ahipping; to na. i Kven when our trade balance Indicated Indi-cated we wero Importing more than exporting thla did not apply to Eu-rope Eu-rope but waa accounted for by our Hout'h American trade. Thla exceaa Kurope haa paid for with gold and negotiable eecuritlea until they have no mora of aither with which to pay. , We have also extended credit until the limit haa been reached. Con-' quently. If we are again to acquire a large export trade with Kurope, It muat be done after they begin to restore re-store their credit. When this occurs It will be plainly Indicated by rising exchange rates. At the present tlma the demand I exlata for alt our anrpfup. Tha ability to pay la Badly lauking. THE RAILROADS. Tha report of railroad earnings for August ara exoept tonally good and forecasia ware generally lower than tha actual returna. Tha rat la aa a whol have ao far thla year Increased their net receipts by II to M per cent. A fair Idea of what the ml tread a are accomplishing; thig year may be gathered from the following oornperi-ann oornperi-ann between estimated earn Inge. 1121. and actual earning. ItM. for aevera) of the beat known carrier a: itu itr: 14 PC. on Nut. Actual Railroad Valfn. Earn. Earn. Atchiaoa 15. 4 II MAO 11.17 IT 1 H M T . Cow. . . . 17 . tl it I JO Nb. 1C fM I HI Deficit. M The reaumption of U dividends by the Baltimore Ohie on Septemher 24 caused the market mar-ket to respond romP'If. not been anticipated that would ba reeumed until after the rirat of the y.ar. Will. '-; paay'e net earnlngp mora than m Jer cent over ml. the action of the director aatfiip JuaUllad ''hlVTa. bn a bann.r year for the ralla. Car loadlnga for the aa-ond aa-ond wk af September million mark for no lovonih tlma this yar. Two aueh wkp waa the record for Hll in conatltuted the beat hoi"ir ?. our railway history ; k . I;l. Htwtvtr. the tork pnalyxea th paat only that U may anticipate tha future. With the proapect of aome curtailment cur-tailment of ganral "r and th poatlbillty of advre lg-Islatton lg-Islatton from tha next eonsreaa, , It Is only raaaonabla to ronaldr the current year the beat tha rana are haaly to pxparlanco for soma ttma to coma. MvOMBV AMD CREDIT. One of the two beat phawlngp for the year wa made by fh federal reserve ayetem la lie report of Sep-ternber Sep-ternber 10. During th aame wk call money touched Ift par cent, for the fir tlma ainca January. Brokers loan ara down ttOtt.too.-000 ttOtt.too.-000 from the high point reached laat February, when they totaled 13.000.000,100. Moaey and credit ahould remain aaay for aome tlma to oom. It la thla factor which will prevent any u4dn oon traction trac-tion la bualnaaa. , , John Moody, In B recent ravlaw of th money market, aayp In part ap follow: . "Averagep of all these money ratea from the loweat of the punt-mer punt-mer ta date have advanced only u.lftl par cent, whereas the Average Aver-age aeasonal advance la 1.71 per cent. It would aeem a fair Inference Infer-ence that the increase In the atraln on th money market thug far haa been only about ong-fourth of normal. nor-mal. Commercial paper discount a Slv similar evidenca. . In-icatlona, In-icatlona, therefor, are that tha riaa of latereat ratea throughouut th balance of th year ahould be exceptionally amall; that money will begin to be eaeler 1st this year or early nxt yar. and that, barring! highly Improbable developments, devel-opments, Interest ratea ahould fall lower naxt year than they have been at any time this year. It la quite posaibla thev may fall below the record of ItZf, which, according accord-ing to our avtragea of all New York money ratea. was 4.0t per cant." It does aeem probable that money ratea will work lo lower levela aext year, and thla would eventually even-tually Incraaae bond prlcaa. There are, however, aevera I factors which may or may not materialise which would tend to stiffen Intereat rates. Tt la rumored I hat the Japaneae government la planning to ralae a billion dollars on a serlea jt bond laauea In order to finance th loaaea due ta the earthquake. Alao, It la wll known that. If a Battlement Battle-ment I, effected between Ovrmany and France, It muat be nocompaV nied hy a huge Oerman loan. whlc would probably be guaranteed hy th alllea In.s similar manner ta the Austrian loan. The Issuance of honda In auch quantities would undoubtedly tend to retard tha fafl In Interest ratea OIL AD COPPER. Both oil and copper pre being produced In greater quantities than they are being consumed, this de-sptM de-sptM the fart that certain artificial artifi-cial restrictions on output have i been Impoaed. Artificial raatrte- ttone are -not likely to curtail production pro-duction aufflclantry to balance eon- I sumption in either of these great Industries. Not until prices are ao low that high cost producers have caaaed to produce, will tha situation situa-tion aurely begin to Improve. The copper tnduetry, mora than any other would he henaftted by a practical solution of the European problem. This dots not look Imminent Im-minent at present, but tha recsnt ; havy liquidation tn both oil and copper atocka have bean drastic and both claaaea ara in a poettlop to respond quickly to any favor-I favor-I able development COMCIXSIONS. The technical poettforr of thg , stock market la auch that.lt prob-' prob-' ablr would move rapidly for aev-, aev-, era! polnta In either direction op 'the receipt of axceptlonally favor ghle or unfavorable aews. However, How-ever, It ahould be noted that three tlmeg during tha past three mentha the market haa reared auddenly. and each time the average prices have failed to break through the rirevtoug Jqna Iowa. Thig would ndlrate that tha nest turn should be upward, aa atocka have undouht i edly been going Into tha stronger hands, the marked reduction In Wall street loans bearing out thla fact. I expect a fair slxed rally this fall, but I am still of the opinion that production coatp and commodity com-modity prices muat eventually ba readjusted to lower levels. If thie action takes place, volume of buai-nas, buai-nas, profits and wages will decline. de-cline. Tha bond marltt haa bean dragging drag-ging oa th bottom for several months, and It gives no Indication nf a rapid move In either direction. direc-tion. The chances ara that bond prices will remain fairly stable for the next pevoral months. Locally, condltlona are undoubtedly undoubt-edly Improving In almost, every line, Thia should affect pa more than It ordinarily would, for tha reason that our recovery haa been ao alow that wa are still nq the upgrade, while th rest of thg nation na-tion haa paaaad the peak of this rauvemtnL |