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Show ; FOREIGN TRADE STILU1ENSE Total Value Declared, to Be More Than 60 Per Cent Above Prewar Figures A nt balance ef Import a late the United States, by which foreign nations caa seen-tually seen-tually pay their debts to America. Is not Indicated la the near future, the National Bank of Com m area la New Totk b! levee. Although thte country a esceas of export has recently declined to a average only moderately higher tha prewar levels, this sscess Is still being maintained by making new loans and lavoetmeats abroad. In the August Issue of Its magaslne. Commerce Monthly, ths bank aaya: "It la worthy of not that although the total valuer of foreign trade la atlll mora than j,r cant above tha prewar total, tha current averace monthly net balance of exports Is oniy moderately above the prewar level. "To is substantial redaction in the esre.s ef ei ports duae not. however. Indicate that f an ex caa of Imports la a prubabie develop-ient develop-ient of tha near future. Tt.e expectation of a net balan.-e of Imports ta baaad on the fact that eventually tha obltvatlono of other runtres to tha I'd I ted Htatee can be liquidated liqui-dated only by payments In goods and aerv-tree. aerv-tree. Hut as regard tha larseat Item In this Indebte.lneaa tha B-lvances made by the government to the alllea Interest par- . mnta have thus far been deferred and con- , aequantly hava exercised no Influence on the trade balance. Moreover, general nefntla- ewweHs awtt tntereat pay" meats on the allied Indebtedness hava hardly hard-ly mora than bun, mo that fur aoma months i at least tha Influence of thla factor en the trade balance will be slight. "On the other hand, credit Is being afforded af-forded to foretsn governments and enter- r rises en a substantial cale. Flotations of oral n governmental and private eecurltlee In this country, for tha flrat six months of ths current year, are estimated at more than 67Mv,000. To tula turn must be added tha unrecorded but eubetantlal flow of capital Inte foreign enterprises and Into tnveetments la foreign currency securities Tha export of American capital, therefore, has In recent months much mors than offset off-set the net balance ef exports of goods, in addition ths major part of tha country's foreign commerce Is being earned In foreign veesela and tourlat traffic la going abroad In heavy volume, further offsetting the balance bal-ance of mere hand lee ex porta. "The United Htatee, therefore, by Increasing Increas-ing Its foreign Inveatmenta and making foreign payment a la maintaining a net outward out-ward flow of merchandise. Prediction cannot can-not be made aa to how long thla situation will continue; the-queetlon Involves not only tha situation In International capital and commodity markets, but also mattera of fnvernment policy In connection with rounding ro-unding of foreign loans, ths tariff and shipping ship-ping au bald lea Not until a stage Is reached, however, when international payments to tha t 'lilted States substantially mora ttian offset the export of oapliaV Is the exeesa of merchandise mer-chandise ei porta likely to be replaced by a net Inflow of gooda. "Tha general trend In the character of American foreign commerce since the wsr has bean. In a striking degree, toward re- ' moving ths wartime abnormalities and re- I storing tha prewar situation, even in thoss cases where the influenoe of tha war was! merely to hasten what had beea the long- i time tread. On the export aide foodstuffs! , export e are still relatively iarser. and raw: material exporta smaller ttan the crews rt 'normal, primarily reflecting the continued ,t dlffloaltlea of Europe, while manufactures form approximately the prewar proportion . ef total exporta On tha Import elile the - three classes of merchandise form epproxl-I epproxl-I mately the same proportion of ths whole aa be f era the war. . "Sinew l, there has been a substsntlsl ; eapavnalon la the physical manufacturing ' ipnelty of the on n try. Many industries ' definitely more dependent than former-t former-t en foreign markets for their products. ; here la every reason to anticipate the con daoed stesdy progress of industrial actlvtt In the United States, a process which will absorb an Increasing proportion of tha do- mestto production of raw msterlsls and I which will require broadening markets In b 'foreign eetmtr.ee for American manufac- turee. Certain new factors In ths Interns-, Interns-, tlonal situation. It must be recognised, will Srobably tend to Increase tha competitive Iffleultlee of holding euch foreign marketa. Europe can finally liquidate lie enormous obligations Incurred by res eon of tha war enlr by affording eervlcea and exporting goode -primarily manufactured gooda As European Industry revives and Kurrtpean . eountrieo beln payments on their obligations, obliga-tions, therefore, the competition for markets mar-kets may be expected to become Innreaetng-ly Innreaetng-ly severe. Foreign markets for American , raw materials, on ths other hand, may bei stimulated by tha Intenea Industrial activity whlrh must provide tha foundation for tha! recovery of Europe. The strength of these' various factors and the degree to whlrh j they may finally influence American for- i elgn trade cannot yet be measured. It lei probable, hnwever, that while they may tend j to limit eornewhat the progress of the ehengea which have been taking place in 1 the character ef the foreign trade of, the . Vnlted Slates, they will not counteract Its' baalo trend." j |
