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Show lEDlTSPKS" WILLSTAY HP J. E. Cosgriff Sees No Prospect Pros-pect of Decline for Year or More. Effect of Liberty Bonds Explained Ex-plained at Kiwanis Club Luncheon. That present high prices will not decline) de-cline) to the prewar basis wltliln 1 a year, and probably not wi(hln eighteen iiiorilha. was 'the opinion expressed by J. K. Coh-' grift., president of the Continental National Na-tional bank. In an address at a Klwanls club luncheon yesterday In the Newhousa hoteL Mr. Cosgriff explained that he based this opinion upon a statement of Otto Kahn of New York, one of America's Amer-ica's lending bankers. Mr. Cosgriff outlined out-lined the results of an Interview with Mr. Kahn In October, and said: "Hope and fear are contagious, and no doubt we arc all speculating upon tho cause of the present high prices and tho time and rapidity with which they may decline. We intuitively feel thai, sooner or later, we must return to approximately tho baals. of prewar prices. In October I ankecl one of the leading bankcra of the country whan. In' his opinion, present prices would begin to decline Ho replied that he oonnldsred Otto Kahn of New VYok the test qualified man 1n the United Slates to express an opinion: that he had a.,kl Mr. Kahn this same question r, nd h.'id received the reply that prices would not decline wdthln a year and proba-oly proba-oly not within eighteen months, but beyond be-yond (bat he wouln not venture an opinion. opin-ion. The reply s.-emed like that' of the conservative weather, man who will predict pre-dict the weather only three days In ad- vnnco.'' Conclusions Presented. 5 The speaker then told of an intervlpw with Kv-Secretary of the Treasury lyeslie M .Shaw, !n which he outlined conditions existing afler the Napoleonic wars and aft.-r the civil war. .v'r. Copt;rirf then I'resented for the consideration of tho club members his own'COnclilsIons, which he explained as follows: "The government conscripted tho young men for the army. They conscripted or took over the. railroads. They practically conscripted the banks or Induced them to give their services. The government appeared ap-peared willing to pay full prices for nearly near-ly everything except money, and a large share of the burden of taking care of the loans fell upon the banks. "They carried practically, all of the certificates' cer-tificates' of ind'ebte-lness at around 4 pen. cent and lent their services in every way they could in tjLklng care of the. tiond.s. . Interest rates paid to the. banks dldnot increase, and, as a consequence, iMink stocks, like railroad shares, did not advance ad-vance In value in keeping with general prices. Now let us assume that it would have been possible for the government to conscript everyone; tit conscript the output out-put of the farm, the factory and tlu; mine, saying to the people: We will feed and take car of you as we do the soldiery, and we will demobilize you as we do the soldiers, and turn back your property prop-erty to you at the close of the war, simply sim-ply restoring the factory and pa.ylng the depreciation of the mine. Question Raised. "If such a thing had been possible would prices of commodities generally have been any higher at the close of the war than they were before, barring the influence of the influx of irold or balance of trade from Kuropo? "TTnder the circumstances as outlined, would It have been rieoossary'Tor the government gov-ernment to issue any bonds to conduct the war? "Now, if these bonds were necessary to pay for tho labor and products which were not conscripted, are they not the fundamental reason for our present high prices'? "They may not be an Inflation in the sense that currency Inflation Is. but are they not really an Inflation in tho channels chan-nels of trade? "If such bo the fact, then prices cannot be expected to decline until we have citlKT retired these bonds or have neutralised neu-tralised them through an accumulation of the products of labor and raw material, ma-terial, and, after nil, raw material Is of little value 1h fore labor has touched it. Itegarding the time necessary to retire the bonds fnun the chatinels of trade, two opposing factors must be consld--red. One Is the fact that from the highest to th:-lowest th:-lowest we are. to an extent, 'loafing on the job.' and the other Is ihe factor of prohibition, which, -onsldf red as a matter of eceuiomy, will enable us to more rapidly neutralize or retire tho bonds. The h.usf-ttess h.usf-ttess men may fee', apprehensive of 'the unexpected, but if he manages his business busi-ness prudently and Is not lured from safe1 lines by tho prospects of unusual gains he may feel safe." y Thanks Expressed. A resolution was passed at tho luncheon thanking the various organizations of me city for their cooperation with (he Kiwanis Ki-wanis club during the, recent lted Cross drive.. The resolution follows; "Whereas. The Klwanls club Is In receipt re-ceipt of communications from Hed Cross orii'-l.lls onering congratulations upon tho excellent results obtained In the third -lied Cross r.. 11 call snd expressing apprm-latlon and thanks for the services--re nders-,1 bv ! the club ana olheis, Jnri referring to the ! campaign as 'a difficult tits well done'; I "Itesolved. That the Kiwanis c.luh rec- j ogim.es that tne results could not have ! b. en oic.a.ned without the fine cooperation I given by other organizations and indl- ' vhiu.-.ls. too numerou- ;o ,,rimo , r.so.ution, s.i..l that the cluh hereby ex! te.-.ds to ali such organizations and lndl-' y.duals us thanks and appreciation for i the services rtr.dered ano which contrib-oio-n"0 ma-h :o ,!ie sjceeas of the cam- That this resolution be given to the fished.- h the lf'" " bs pu: |