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Show iitii PBESEHTPUZZLE Experts Study Post-war Conditions ; Trend of Opinion Optimistic. President's Intention to Control Cotton Is Point of Instance. By BROAD AN WALL. By Universal Service. NEW YORK. Pen. Fresitlcni Wilson's Wil-son's Announced intention tluit he proposes pro-poses not only to lix the price for th:s year's cotton crop, hut to control distribution distri-bution of the staple, is a matter of such world-wide importance that it seems impossible im-possible to estimate its influence on security se-curity markets and on business in general. gen-eral. It can mean only one thini;. It means that President Wilson sees the end of the war before the next crop is avail a-ble. So long as the war lasLs cotton can be distributed only as at present, anrl there is no business or military reason for flianring- the method. For peace, however, how-ever, such a (iemajid for cotton will com) from ail quarters of the plobe that, unless un-less it is kept under ri,-id govern mental control, there will be crazy speculation in the staple and sross inequalities of prices and distribution. While no sane person would resume to say deriniiely that the war will end before the next crop of cotton can be harvested, and while it wotri1 be folly to abate in the slightest degree any war preparation, yet the login of the situation demands that investors from now on look beyond the war into the period of reconstruction. recon-struction. Army Supplies Vast. The. first question that business men naturally ask is, what will be the result on the commodity markets? There is no question that the aUicd governments have stores far in excess of what can be consumed by the armies when rich-ting ceases. They are compelled to keep vast supplies moving forward to guard against possible shortage at critical times. But with peace secured this entire surplus "(vould naturally be made available for even.-bod v concerned. This sudden increase in-crease of supplies for general consumption consump-tion would naturally cause a sharp decline in prices. Another unsettling factor would be the necessity put upon large manufacturers of changing from their system of serving one customer t hat is, the government to serving a multitude of customers, representing rep-resenting the public. There would have to be a quick readjustment of prices of commodities com-modities and methods of distrihui ion. The labor problem wouid also immediately immedi-ately become acute. Investors must decide very sooi whether this readjustment is go:n to cause a setback in the stock market or whether it has already been d:So.;nted in the failure of st-cks to advance in prices apparently justified by their earnings earn-ings and surpluses. On this point there are two distinct parties in the market. Each :s able to produce arguments favoring his view. Values in Peace. For extreme example one may rite an oil stock popular in Wall s'reet t hat :s selling for less than in per tent of what oil experts say it is worth. Is it possible for peace to injure this stock ? Th-n ;here is a popular steel security mat has a book va'ue double its market price. Is it possible that this sux k has to discount dis-count peace? There are railroads that, through th institution of geographical distribution of business, will pro hi tremendously from government cor t ml. These hav not Fhown market sis'ns nf having dis'-o'rrfrd that situation. On the other band, if the war is about to end, the period of srnv-ernment srnv-ernment control may be so brief that u may not permanently destroy the old lines of freight distribution. There is an investment possibility that n'vjsi be considered. con-sidered. Take the tnnacco sto -ks they are hundreds hun-dreds of millions nf cigars and L-iLrarettes behind orders. Will the soldiers on th-ir return smoke more or ler-s, and wiii tno People of Kurope become customers of the future as a result of ;he:r war introduction intro-duction to American brands? However puzzling thee question? may be. the man of wealth is compelled u answer them dfmitelv to himself, whether he does so tr. orirr- or not. for be must buy or seil. Men of viealMi awl of apparently equal business anihry aro A-'t'ng from npporite rv.n'f of viw. ,' (areful invr-sti:aiirn by the writer ot l'ii.r; coin inn eon vj m"".-s h ; ni ' h.i f t hosp !i mh n -cial inte-esis ih;.t nave bd the most p-n-jioi n -or -f-e?y in t lie pa s r u ; i . ra t her t'an slHriu. Thro N t oif r . - -crimination in (b"ir buying. F " i 1 1 tlic' v re absorbing in irreat vo'nme sto---: or 1-ivgc t'Ook alee, rc-iird je of market |
