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Show PRICE OF SILVER TO RISE DUE TO EXCESS CONSUMPTION Statistics of Metal Tend to Prove That Government's Govern-ment's Anticipatory Coinage Purchase Will Result in a Saving. The proposition now before congress for giving the secretary of the treasury authority to a nticlpate purchases of silver sil-ver bullion to. the extent of 15,000.000 ounces, is equivalent to allowing him to buy metal sufficient for thiee years" coinage on the basis of the 1M- mintage, which consumed 5.510,-9:: fine ounces of silver. Even the annual average of the three years. 1310 to 191.. inclusive, was about 4.200,000 ounces. As an emergency emer-gency step, therefore, the plan cannot be severely criticized. The government would require property on which there is a seignorage profit in coining of around 60 per cent. In Us emergency t-iforts to protect the cotton situation, the treasury is virtually pledging its credit on a commodity com-modity subject to the wfdest fluctuations. If the proposed silver purchases should serve to prevent a severe decline in the price of silver, to that degree it would lessen the debit side of the war account as affecting this country. It would lessen loss to capital and avert the closing down of mines, with consequent .suffering by labor. The amount involved is not. in itself, it-self, sufficient to advance the price on ourselves, as purchasers, to any Important Import-ant extent, says James S. H. Umstcd in Financial America. Would Pay Government. As a simple business proposition, without with-out reference to the effect on the sil-cr Industry in a great crisis, it might pn v the Eovernment to store up a little surplus of the metal for future coinage usps. The price is low: at 24ci an ounce in London, bar sliver is but a littlp above the lowest price on record. In 1P03 the average for the year was 32 11-16d, the lowest annual average since 1 Sr!3. from whi- h year the bullion dealers, Pixley A boll, of well-known well-known authority, start their records. In those days the commercial ratio of silver to gold was substantially 16 to 1. The present price might go lower on war In- fluences, but on the other band the opportunity op-portunity to "stock up" cheaply may readily be lost, for there art- not a few tactors conducive to future strength. In the first place the speculative position posi-tion Is sounder than in a long time. For s.v.;ral years prior to lilo a "bull'' syndicate syn-dicate in India held a large stock of the white metal, which the London bullion dealers regarded as a standing menace to the market. The syndicate's Htock had been accumulated with the Idea of selling sell-ing it at high prices to the government when the In tier was forced to buy to supply rupees to India's trade. Syndicate Raised Price. The opera I ions of the syndicate, coupled with natural influences, carried tiie price of sIIvit from an averago of -i 11 - lOd an ounce in London in 1909. 10 an average of L'S l-;;2d in 1912. and to 293d early in 191". Iast year, however, there was a speculative collapse in India, attended by the failure of the India Specie bank and nianv other swadeshl (native) institutions. The silver market fell to L'5 15-ltid In December, and to prevent a complete demoralization, a powerful Fng-h.-ih syndicate took over the holdings of the broken Bnniba- "bulls. ' On April 2 l.i.t the syndicate manager announced that the final lot of these holdings bad been disposed of. From that time the market has bem largely free of organized j manipulation and the visible supply of commercial silver in London and the far I e.ist. according t,- an estimate at about I the end of July, was only about 7,000,0('0 ounces. What then are the future influences j j likely to affect prices? In the first place thf world's industrial consumption of I Hie white mtal has increased really In ! recent decades. According to the esti-I esti-I n ;,tes of the director of the Untied States mint. basM on careful Investigation and official reports, tills consumption for fl. e-year e-year periody has been as follows, in fine ounce? : uf-"-i7 1 40. j4.ri'"'n 1vii-iVi2 -.r,9 6li,3,,0 19":t-.7 795, fi I 1?'"'S-12 u76."92.'71 Average Consumption. I In the last quinquennium th average ' yc.triy consumption was 1 1 3.27S.".;;4 ounce?. B p rodii' iiig povony. the 1'urortca n w ar nili nrobably cut these figures: down. Jt'it If the price does not rise too sharply, the ind::-uries and arts will probably caU for Sf'."'".oni) ounces. t 'onsuniptinn of slh er in colnace. how-wtT. how-wtT. will mot probably receive a decided stimulus from the wh: f)n the outbreak of bo:.-tiilti-H the Hrltth and K-ench mints were forcr 1 to bur hurrteJlv to proiHc ,t suttl-jf nr o,uanti"tv of circulating circulat-ing ne.j,,! n addition t-. Iiat nny ,:lini! h cji'.c.l flrtf' paper iSHtie In Franc, one i'riri- . 'irrsp'didrnt nt .-, tiie hoard-'uk hoard-'uk of jil - f- checked at once when thf mint a n non need that It coining buillon for irnuic.jiH to u.-e. Tiie war pcrknce.s in ,,( pj-on Hy i?nipha - Ire the nsi r. " . l.tr.-r i iirp ii- v not r' 'inc on cold re. r l;t b.iiiks. Step.-, thee-fore, thee-fore, will ! t iken in the future to Increase In-crease slH 1- coi!,-!Ke and this point hc- tu Ires add l I m port a nco when one con -sbUrs- the tt;trini: "f the mints in recent re-cent years It )H i ..idly natural that Mi-Vi-f er.fiiHg Oinul.l if .rpit- whi! the world's popi1;! f Ion vas crowing. trad ex-pa ex-pa "din? a r-j r-t;i ; t a iMrt.niis coincl -deriMy liiullip inir. Vet Iti the five-var' p. rl-T-Js to v.-lcch attention b.i s b-en c.ilie.f aboi.-e ,- orhl's fnliini; of r il-VT il-VT h? s fbl' 'I'm te.; us follo w S ( I lcur.i Hi ' t'1 ouiif-e ) : 1 xl-97 r,4 (c;. 1' 9 K"":t-07 7 .-.mi ,:r. v.,;o In the la"t -;!f ,', ndc the -i(ver icln'd whs 1 2 7 . (m i" rinn ,,ull(e,s !e- t'l.m !n the prcVloijR !l,- prry-.J. Ml,,i WH.i ,nlv .' I f h- , iVp.i nnti'i" mope ih.-tn In th-- v:' ).'-'i.i7, j a 't hmi-h ten '"Rr . .f rowin; p.ipii! j t ion ' d nd trade intr-rvt n d j China Coining Heavily. No authentic e:itii.ite nf vo- co'rt- ' ng ar rta!i,,Nr tor a d.it- ImIt tmin 1912. Th 19!;; coinage a;,n rl.ivibt lr- hut little diTferent f--o;n t ;it of I..!.1. In f:'r In Ht-na nied yt r t ' . rnoun t cf vllvr 'iltiM ro-ie sirpl'.' ir..;n tl, b,,t the in-crea.se in-crea.se was A'.f to i;r.-,,irr h tii.ind tr..in tiie f;,r !.,!. i'htn '- h.n i..-n roh.Jng heavily for j t s new cr nn r-'nev h - t"tn and th" (nl!iin k'overtnuent ha re-surne re-surne mllitttig rui- h, .i T I r,- iunu;d 1 1 .g new pure ha si h (.f - U'-r for fl e jnir.i Coinac for t lie wor'. n l f vcirs ,n h-"!! as follow .1: l'.l . KI.7,1.4L; otin'-- 19M. ;i7.;:i7.s.-,s: ':, :s 7h th'j 7.T:'.2.'.i : lUtx. ir.i.:. .: :4 ounces.' n..-J withstanding the 'wo enrsnKn. the annual av-r;te f..i 1 petu,o! ru-ic wan. In rounu rnml" h, ortlv 1 9. fit 111,1101.1 ouncev. n ut. l r nf I U."-"' .mirt in the period l'i.i-eT. d J-;., f.n. ,.(!.) J- 1 S'.S -19:. ftut the far e.i.wtern ' on n t rb-s - ',l na (Iticlu.l-tnif (Iticlu.l-tnif Hong KojiK , i p.IIh ji nd .la pn n e made up the onlv ln re.,,-.e In the mint il'miind.-, their onlnrik'o hnviiiK hren r)i;,S97 ounee- In 19!'. 70.l.'.t,.'r2 in 1911 and Itl.ff 17. '..".'J In 191 1. f'n the oth-r hund. the silver roil co of nil the other countries of the wo-!d xr:tp; hi PMO .,; -L'M::.rt4r : In 1911. 4;.r.M:!.i7ti. Mini Iii'tjiL", Sfi,71c.'i3 otiners. Higher Price Ineitable. The henefltH of lntger supply of eolnel ver Imving been demon;i t ri, 1 by t he experience of the war. It 1 rot ; uni-eajifjnh hie to estltnnln a probjihi hi-ereHe hi-ereHe of .r.O per cent In tiie mini demands de-mands of the western world. Vhlli IndiH. owlriK to somewhat poorer tntde, rn,iy not call for as mnny new rupees hh in 1'13 and 1912. the currency reform of the flhlneMO repultlle will lequlre lnnealiilt operations at her mints. Without pr--tendlng to Hpply the eMtlmnte (j tet yer. It Is fairly pmhatde, thut In 1'ilri the relative silver nupplv Rtid deiiianii for the world will bo tin followa (In ounces): Coinage, for the west 7r,nno. nnn Coinage for the fHr east 1 1 l.Kufi.rmo Total rolnngo 1 SO. Ono. nuO Deduct old rrmterlnl uvij, on basin of 1912 fltireM Itl.OflO.OOO Net new coinage ItiG.ooo.Odo Industrial demand 80.0ti0.0ii0 Tofnl coiiHumption ? ni.ono.ooo ITuductlon 2,io!(H-o!otif) Excels consumption iB.niio.nno Tiie writer eMlmnteH mn Inerrnsrd pro- . du- tlon of R.fMlO.000 outnes In four yeju-H, if II hoi u; h thi! out put since, I Mm njlK vlrtufflly HtJi.tlonury. AWru wn to aft.vuino the return of h uotmal demand frmn the! idlversmlth a fl er post - w n r recupi-ra l Ion ' net" In, tiie showing would h pprox I tua to i the annexed figures N'et pew COtmiKA 1 1', ftrtft. Oil) : Induhtrlnl demand loo.'iuo.m)") , ' Totnl consumption ?r,i;,noi),miO ! 1'roductlon 2.'!0.iii)i),i)ini I Kxcpss consumption nc.ono.oon j Ther 1ft a wide margin here (o illfvj for errors, but I tin main fact in dwil tiie stallstlcjil prnnpeets piltit In an ahHorp-tlon ahHorp-tlon of evny ounce o' exMing st'j' k.. an well as current production. , lilnhci prleej level lor t tin metal would he Inev I -tii ble. Tin re fore. If congress doefi nf,t tie the treiiHury depn 1 1 nient to n ti Minor- ; mallv hl(tll nveniwe of prices, tliere Is' little lk-llhoo.l ttu.t ttie i:i. (. niFient a lin- tl'-lpntlon of purch;is':i for .-.iIiuiko will . ii'U prove wise oiid iiiofllnhln In the lnnj' run. " I |