Show RECORDING AND FORECASTING OF WEA WEATHER THER THERAS I AS REDUCED TO 20 SCIENTIFIC A 1 Information From Fr m All Sections of Country Collected With Marvelous Speed for the Weather Map BY V H CHURCH From Prom the earliest history of man down to the present time during his ev evolution evolution from the wandering savage to his present high state of civilization r many changes In his condition have havet x t een wrought Nations have risen to fall fatI again strain science art and literature have developed flourished and lapsed Into the oblivion of the dark ages there thereto therelo to lo remain for tor centuries only o ly to rise again and produce for us the enlightenment enlightenment which we are prone to boast as our heritage The changes which have occurred during this long interval of time in the environments habits cus customs customs customs toms modes of living dress speech earth etc of the various peoples of oft the earth been be the ereno vere no greater than have n changes In the nature of their voca vocations vocations vocations amusements religions politics forms of speech and en the subjects of their everyday thoughts and con conversations conversations conversations While these transformations have been so great as to be almost inconceivable yet there Is conclusive evidence that among all of these re rc revolving revolving conditions there 1 I is one element ele element element ment an influential factor In our daily lives that has come down to us posses possessing possessing possessing I sing the tho same or nearly the same char characteristics I as in former times and that thatis thatis i is the weather History Informs us that the weather experienced by our early ancestors was of practically the same nature and passed through the same varying conditions as It does to today today day dilY and there can be he do doubt that It formed a general topic for conversation in the days of ot Adam and Noah in inT T much the same manner as it does in the twentieth century As a subject of con 1 Ii 1 t I ti tit 1 I t ti Improved barometer box it breaks the barriers of con conventionality between strangers strang s who have bave met through chance it is the prin principal principal principal cipal subterfuge resorted to In chang changIng changing IJ Ing the tho course of gossip which some sometimes sometimes sometimes times approaches too near to personalities ties It Is adequate in bridging the chasm of an awkward pause and anc seems for the same purposes to beas be as useful today as it undoubtedly was wa in preceding centuries Influence of Weather It Is 18 doubtful If it any of o us realize to what extent the weather exercises an influence over our physical and mental feelings While the strife for wealth and honor seems to be the chief aim of mankind yet many have given up the race In order that they might lead the simple life Ufe in localities where Na Natures N Nat tures smiles are sweetest far removed from Winters storms and chilling blasts Masts Theories have been heen een expresses expressed that dat when the cic pressure Is t much below the normal value in any lo 10 locality there is produced a mental de depression deI depression I upon persons susceptible to such and data have havo been collected and published in an effort to prove that brutal crimes suicides and cases of in insanity insanity insanity sanity are more frequent during such periods of deficient atmospheric pres pressure pressure sure re But nut regardless of whether sucha such a theory can ever be conclusively proved or not there is a fact tact that must be conceded by aU all that in cases usually diagnosed as the blues the symptoms are more likely to appear on dull and dismal days das and that the speediest and most effective remedy is a day of clear skies akies and bright sunshine People who are subject to rheumatism claim to be he beable heable beable able to foretell approaching storms by feeling it in their bones Hence Hen e an element which exerts such an influence over our physical selves and so great greatly ly affects all lines of commercial activity J ity must possess some features of in interest lJ 1 terest to every Intelligent human being v Meteorological Research While White arithmetic geometry astron astronomy astronomy v omy chemistry physics and kindred sciences were studied and developed long before the Christian era er the science science el ence of meteorology remained practically practically practically ally an unknown quantity until the nineteenth century When the study of the science took definite form the principal authentic weather data avail available available available able were the records kept by the num numerous numerous numerous erous seagoing vessels of the world A t 1 Thermometric sunshine recorder mounted I i f I h t h vf r y aY x xii I if f ii x k y 1 h f kF V H CHURCH f Observer in United States weather we ther office 4 compilation of these data resulted in the bringing forth of many hitherto un unknown unknown unknown known facts and created an interest in meteorological research by showing more clearly the analogous features of storm movements As soon as the na nature nature nature ture of such movements was discovered various theories were advanced as to their cause but none were were accepted un until Until til 1856 when Professor Ferrel then a school teacher in tn Nashville Tenn pro promulgated promulgated promulgated the theory which Is given general credence today About this time the advent of the telegraph in ia inthe inthe the commercial field made it possible to transmit observations taken simultaneously sImultaneously simultaneously at various places to one central point where they could be made avail available available available able for study without loss of time This greatly facilitated the study of weather conditions over the land areas and the local effects of topographical features s on storms passing across the continent The first commercial use of this system was in 1869 when so o Cleveland Abbe now editor of the Monthly Weather Review w made ar arrangements arrangements arrangements to collect and chart data for the use of the board of trade at Cincinnati Cin Cincinnati Cincinnati 0 O This information was vas ob obtained obtained obtained from telegraphic reports from a number of stations what were w re rethen then the chief grain producing states National Weather Service This experimental beginning proved the feasibility of the plan and during the following foll wing year a national weather service was Inaugurated by b the war department and put in active operation the same year through the Signal corps of the United States army Stations were established in the leading cities and at many of the frontier forts These stations were equipped with standard barometers thermometers and andrain andrain andrain rain gages and the system of ot daily observations was begun The service grew the number of stations was in increased increased increased creased and their equipment improved The need for instruments was soon apparent and as necessity became the mother of Invention a few years later the desired records were being obtained from such Instruments which h have been Improved from time timeto to time until they now have reached the country to visit the various valous various of or offices offices flees of the weather bureau b reau and there receive instruction regarding the meth methods methods methods of forecasting and also to have havethe havethe havethe the various instruments explained to them This has developed a marked interest in the science of meteorology and places every young person in pos possession possession possession session of facts that will be of more or less advantage to him In any line of life work which he may under undertake undertake undertake take B Collection of Data Under the present system observations observations observations are taken at the various weather stations twice daily dally at 8 S a m and 8 S Sp p m Washington time The observation observation observation tion consists of reading the various station sta on instruments and making a rec record record record ord of temperature atmospheric pres pressure pressure pressure sure humidity wind direction and velocity amount of precipitation amount kind and direction of move movement movement move movement ment of ot clouds and other special data The pressure pressure readings from the mer mercurial mercurIal mercurial curial barometer In order that they may be comparable with those made at other stations must be reduced to toa toa toa a common altitude and temperature The standards adopted for this pur purpose purpose purpose pose are the sea level for altitude and 32 degrees Fahrenheit for the thc tempera temperature temperature temperature ture After the proper reductions have beep made the data are put Into a special specIal special cial code form all of the important ele elements elements elements ments of the observation being usually expressed in not to exceed four words The object of the code is to lessen the expense of and errors in transmission These telegrams are filed flied at exactly 8 a m and 8 S p m nt Washington time at all stations Thus the time at Salt Lake City and at all stations where Mountain time Is in use is 6 a m and 6 p m The facility with which these messages are handled by the telegraph companies is shown by the fact that they generally reach the central of office office office fice at Washington DC 0 C within 30 minutes from the time of filing they having precedence over all commercial business except death messages Ev Every E Every ery cry local office issuing a weather map receives a list of these reports from selected stations distributed over the United States and in some instances a J i r a A I 6 u I Station n I a high degree of perfection At nearly all of the local offices of the weather bureau through the country the fol following following following lowing automatic records are obtained A continuous record of the velocity of the wind the wind direction for each minute the periods during which sun sunshine sunshine shine prevails a record of rainfall each of an Inch being registered as it falls thus not only giving giving giving ing the total amount of the precipitation tion but hut the rate of fall as well con continuous continuous continuous records of air pressure and temperature Several other and more delicate instruments for special uses are maintained at a few stations Methods of Forecasting While there are but few people who have failed to observe the forecasts which are placed before them th m from day dayto to day yet it is probable that there are many who are unfamiliar with the methods employed in their preparation To such people a visit to any local of office office fice flee of the United States weather bu bureau bureau bureau I reau would be productive of much bene benefit benefit fit as there they would receive a correct and detailed explanation of the manner in which this valuable information information information mation is prepared Great interest is manifested by such visitors usually lIY and in some instances the questions asked show that very erroneous ideas are sometimes developed from poorly drawn conclusions or from misinformation tion Not a few have imagined that there is a machine which produces certain certain certain tain forecasts In accordance with par particular particular particular weather conditions the proper forecast being indicated by a pointer something after atter the manner of the In Indicator indicator indicator on on the ordinary cheap aneroid barometers Others believe that the observer visits the roof of the build buildIng buildIng building Ing at frequent intervals and from the conditions in the appearance of the sky propounds a guess on what the weather will be While these are only examples of the average person yet if is a pleasant duty for tho the weather bu bureau bureau bureau reau official to correct such erroneous impressions when the tho opportunity Is afforded f forded It is customary at t the pres present present present ent time for the students attending high schools and colleges colle throughout f Canada and Mexico These reports are generally all received at each station within one and hours from froni the time of observation The Weather Map Mal MalThe The data contained in these these reports is then entered upon a map of the United States that for each ea h station being entered near or over the corre corresponding corresponding corresponding station Lines are then drawn through places having the same pres pressure pressure pressure sure and other lines through places of equal temperature The Tho pressure lines when thus drawn outline the areas of high and low pressure the center of the area being marked with the corresponding word high or orlow orlow orlow low In the latitude of the United States these are of high and low pres pressure pressure pressure sure move in a general eastward di direction direction direction in conformity with the direction direction tion of the rotation of the earth upon its axis Those who have hac studied for considerable periods of time the weather as it exists within and about these areas of high and low Jow pressure find that the attending conditions of tem temperature temperature temperature and rainfall are quite constant under any particular pressure distri distribution distribution distribution With the velocity direction extent and general characteristics of Storm areas known it becomes possible possible possible ble for tor the experienced forecaster to outline the weather conditions for the territory in the paths of these storms for some somo little time in advance This very brief outline from which all scientific terms have been omitted will serve to give the reader a hint of tho the correct method used by fore forecaster forecaster forecaster caster At the present time forecasts are made for periods of hours and in fn some instances for sixty hours and with tine the advancement of meteorological science it is hoped that at no distant date these periods can be b extended without lessening the ac accuracy accuracy curacy of f the forecasts Accuracy o 0 off Forecasts There are some Tho rho are as aa to the proficiency made in the tho forecasts of the weather bureau The main reason for far this is undoubtedly due to the tle fact that such critics cr fall fail to adopt an stand standard standard ard or If they do select ct one to allow It Vast Saving of Property and Lives on High Seas Among Noble Achievements of the Bureau to be so 50 flexible as to be valueless in inthe inthe inthe the verification of forecasts the general tendency being to exploit the failures of or orthe the forecaster and to pass over his successes suc successes successes with little or no notice The only correct standard for verification of fore forecasts forecasts forecasts casts is the one which gives to the fore forecaster forecaster caster the same percentage of credit for his successes as is deducted for his fail fall failures failures ures The standards used by the weather bureau are rigid both as to the condi coral conditions conditions forecasted and the particular per periods perIods periods of time to which they apply aD apply ply and any serious attempts made to ridicule official of official forecasts prove that the author Is ignorant of the methods and standards of verification in use To such persons It may occasion some surprise to know that the percentage of ot correct forecasts averages from S to 95 93 per percent cent according to the locality for which they are made The lower percentage is confined to dis districts districts districts where the topography of the coun country country country try has bas a strong deflecting or modifying influence upon storms passing over that region such as the mountain districts of our western states while the higher per percentages |