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Show gPGENERAL HUGH S. JOHNSON L. ... . A. -, J Umtal FaiiAM f WNUiwn WASHINGTON. Mr. Hitler hasn't liquidated England, but he has pretty pret-ty well disposed of the predictions of military "experts" as to what turn the war will take and how soon this or that campaign will start or finish. It is not Hitler alone who has made this war-casting business dangerous. dan-gerous. It is also the almost complete com-plete lack of dependable facts and the puzzling conflict of rival war bulletins from London and Berlin. Making a prediction carries even more hazards than sports writers' dilemmas on the outcome of an evenly matched football game or a prizefight. There are no hotter spots. This column has had fair luck in this dangerous military field of crystal crys-tal gazing. For a special reason, it Is going to shoot the works on another an-other guess with all fingers crossed, and the desk piled high with rabbits' feet. Mr. Hitler is not going to dispose of England this year. He probably is not even going to try a lightning-war lightning-war invasion by land or, if he does, it will not succeed. As Napoleon did, when he stood on the channel just before Auster-litz, Auster-litz, he may suddenly shift the war to the south and smash Gibraltar and the Suez or something else unpleasant un-pleasant to the British empire, but. I have a strong hunch that the record rec-ord of 874 years since William the Conqueror is not going to be broken now by whatever name Hitler will take in history. It is more than a hunch. To risk an army across the great wet ditch of the channel, the Nazis must have clear command both of the air and those narrow seas and beach heads for a considerable distance inshore. The channel itself might be cleared by fixed shore batteries that would keep naval vessels at a distance, but British counter-batteries could make landings in force difficult if not impossible, unless the back country coun-try is completely dominated from the air. It isn't. I don't know why the Germans, with their supposed overwhelming over-whelming air superiority, didn't use it to reduce British air-power to im-potency im-potency since any quick decision depended mostly on that. They didn't. Doubtless the reasons were good. Most of their reasons have been good. I'm not guessing about that. I'm only guessing that in view of the rapidly advancing season of fogs and rough weather and all the other considerations I have mentioned. men-tioned. Mr. Hitler is going to eat no meals in London, this year. There are other guesses maybe better ones. One is that he actually prefers the fogs as a sort of natural smoke-screen for attack. Another is that with most of Europe in his clutch, he is prepared to offer the British empire a peace so firmly buttressed and asking so little of Britain that she can't refuse. I just don't happen to trail along with those guesses. I didn't make my own guess for the chance of being right at the risk of being wholly wrong. I made them because I know the barometic character char-acter of our public opinion. A good deal of our almost panic urge to prepare is due to our being told that out national life depends on the British Brit-ish navy; that it is in immediate danger of being lost, scuttled or transferred to Hitler; and, above all, the monstrous absurdity that the Atlantic ocean is no longer an obstacle. ob-stacle. I don't agree with these extreme views, but I do agree that our defenses de-fenses are deplorably weak, that we must get into a position to defend ourselves with reliance on nobody else and that we aren't doing it. My fear is that, if the present popular pressure is greatly relieved, by a demonstration that Hitler can't hop even the British channel much less the Atlantic ocean we are likely like-ly to lapse into a lethargy as dopey as our immediate past. The whole of recent history should prove how silly and perhaps fatal that could be. Let's keep on going regardless of the momentary fluctuations fluctu-ations of the news from Europe's war. REGISTER MEN NOW The basis of any successful system sys-tem of equitable selection is the universal uni-versal registration and classification of our whole manpower into about seven groups in accordance with their relative ability for military training and service with the least possible interference with desirable domestic, educational, industrial and agricultural relations. You can't do anything intelligently and scientifically in the way of determining de-termining quotas, exemption and deferments or final selection until you have that information. " To debate further steps before we have it is ignorant and futile. I don't know how long it will take this fumbling, blundering generation to do that preliminary job. In 1917, we did all that it requires in 90 days. I doubt if that record can be beaten or even approached. In any event, that essential process if started start-ed now will overlap the election and leave us. infinitely better prepared to decide. The solution is easy. Quickly pass a simple bill authorizing the registration regis-tration and classification of all men between 18 and 60. |