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Show SULLIVAN SAYS: H - UK 352, AND COX 11 Writer Analyzes Situation State by State and Gives Conclusions REPUBLICAN VICTORY REASONABLY ASSURED But There Is a Possibility Democrats May Get ' 271 Voies ; PROBABLE OS VOT1 l KT1 MATES I I 179 Hi XoOfMMi lo . I- t 2 " V; -M observed thai w - I ... i oven state thai even a VjV Mini chan i '- wou' II -s lutfc onlj fx.- raort than rnoug ' elector! ' " Wm' V I the assumption thai Cos fmn I ponetbh o Mates 1 1 ', '"' 1 a miracle on Ihc la of i -3 X? mat . of lad the targe nui r ol Plcctn al iot thai ox jsjll scrlousl llkclj Bd N ' 11 By serlpasl) llkelj M Certain Oox Statca: jii, tlahama J" 1 krglnla North arollna '-South '-South nrollna fc"? i J M,--l-ippl IK LontaUuMi 1 H triteness . H TcXUS . " 1 1 1 Practically certain Cox-8taea: 3g Verj probabli Cos States: fl Oklahoma DH the order 9V Kentucky I . . Irltona ' fV Montana J gflflfl vpu Mexico 1 SLH Ohio Tfl (Veal Virginia fi Colorado tJflttl Nevada bH ... ... New Total l IRK MIIIWN If Because it is the clearest manner I of apptoach to tne situation, let tis I begin with Cox'a fortunes, and . I mate how many electont! votes hi- I-. I likely to get. II Cox wll get. without any doui.t I wheatevor. of course-, tf-n of the tra-r tra-r ditlonal Southern States, with their I ?ctorul votes, namelv: V Virginia 1 '- I North Carolina 12 m Florida 6 I i teorgfe M I Alabama IC I M ftlppl 10 I Louisiana 10 I Arknnaas I Texas 20 I- Total 114 I Here are 114 out of a total of 531 j I i i i toral Votes which Cox is ahi- I lutcly sun- to start out with Oc-1 I caalonally the Kepublii ans tall: ubout ; I carrying North Carolina, but there ta i I nothing to it. TM Republicans talked I tl;e same way in 190$, when Taft was1 I ruii'ilnx, and In that year did conic I within twenty-two thousand of carry- i I ing the nt.te. They are not lllccly to! I do any better than that this year. I Cox will get all ihc:o slates and all I liic' 114 electoral votes positively. I I This 114 VOtea i Cox minimum flg- I ure. ( AM Ol I I M vxi . I One other state Cox is almost equal- (y iuri' to g-t Tennessee has itwapa been duased with the lo already named as a Southern 8tatc :ml surely Jemo- I cratlc. I think It is probably no this year, but I am treating it separate!.! merely because the Republicans ur. L claiming that they can carry It. I This Republtcn claim Is not mere campaign "bta talk." but is baaed on hi Intelligent survey of conditions nd Intensive work. Nevertheless, I do not think they will carry Tennessee it is true. 1 have s'in the beat kind of evidence that a Kood many bunt-1 DOSS men iii Tennessee want a Republican Repub-lican victory and are willing to help towanl it. Hut this business men's oi la hardly InrRe enough to be a I sgeclsiVe factor. Moreover, tho Rctul-lican Rctul-lican workers In the enthusiasm of ihelr new found hope to do an unprecedented un-precedented thing wi re raih.-r excessively exces-sively zealous In Kettintc the negro women to register, Tin- result has n to create a reaction and to stiffen up the white Democratic opposition. The Republicans still believe that ii the white women voters of tha eastern part of the slate, which is the part where Republicans are strongest, go to the polls ami vote, they will win The people of the eastern part of the s'ate, largely mountaineers, don't believe be-lieve In women folks Voting; and Ihey I ave been hesitant about koiiir to the i' i-dls. (I VI- II Id m.V. If the Republican workers can suc-f suc-f cred i" getting these women I th polls, they will undoubtedly make i better showing than the Republican party has ever before made in Ten i ncssee. Nevertheless, I don't think H i be Republicans will carry that slale a L "s, therefore, add Tennessee's 12 I i to the 114 we have r. ,-ni it ondnued on Page Two.) '1 v I. m HARDING 352, JWDGOX 1 71 (Continued From Face One. i credited to Cni Thl m.ik." u -til of 2 Wo now com lo the five so-called border state: 'Kentucky 1 -Maryland s Missouri 1 Oklahoma 10 West Virginia 8 Total 87 '1'htKc border stutoK arc comtitonly bloody contested, and they will be a i loaely contested this year :lm any ilmf pcfofC. In these Plates there Is no rflyn whatever of the landslide which the Republicans a, re clalmlnfc elss whtrc. In discussing these states with both the Dtimocratlo mnars and "Republican managers you rarely find one who will 1 aim any of these atatea bv more than a lew thousand majority, ma-jority, i mi BORDER STAT1 s. Of Ihcse five border state? I arn inclined to think thltl Missouri and w . at Mrginlu aro most likely to go pubiiean, leaving Oklahoma, Kentucky, Ken-tucky, and Maryland likely lo go l.'ein-Ocratic. l.'ein-Ocratic. The Jegre of their likelihood likeli-hood to ge Democratic i hi the prder named, i think Oklahoma la pretty hurtly to go D nmrratir, Kentucky a Tittle lea aure, and Maryland the least aur of the ill ri i . OlVIng We he II. I' . ' .Ie lo X. pow have a total of 107. We non have behind u.i ail the LtatSj which an in any dc-gre southern south-ern or In any degic.. traditloiialh pomocratlc From this point on we enter that three-fourth of the cbun-pj cbun-pj tthi. h is either traditionally Ho-publican Ho-publican or doubtful, in this sectldn et the oountrj there an leVen atatea arhich Cox hn some chanci of carrying. carry-ing. Please mark thai I frtil it thai way ' Cox has some chance of dairying" dairy-ing" them, i don't mean by any meant' !i classify thee iate a probabl' Vemocratie. I morel that Cox Has Home ohanoe or carrying them, uni -tttat they are the only :atcn In th.1 section we i.re now consldarlng that pa, baa any chance of carrying rheae eleven atatea, sat down In the brycr or DOg'e than, is lo carry tlnm ate a follOWA X'tah " Arizona. ' Montana ' SJeW Mexico J Indiana ' J ihlo 2j Colorado ada J Connecticut 1 ithode Inland ,w Jersey 1 Hut it cannot be prcd cted U it Ci x liill carry all thee state-Z. state-Z. Let ua now go back and assume :hr.; In thee border states Cux ahuuid -carry the two which t have given 10 Harding namely Missouri" with 1. and West Virginia, wlih b On thU JJJJ eumptlon. adding tne to already given, e would have '. . I Toral votes. POSSIBLE M MiMl M OF -' i , This 871 electoral t-otes la the out- side maximum that the moat Optlmls lie Democrat cou,ld poaalnlj pive to H. An i say. I give 'i aa the otuside figure of the number of otca that ! Co can poaalbly yet To give him 'ibat number It is neceaaary to put( i J have put It. In 'he 1 a B 0 I af which ho baa a bare chance "f earir- Ing BUCh ftalf N' v . i i . .it. d H. Connenh We now have -Tt aa i h nnxlmum m number of clertoral votes thut Ox la likely to win, and 114 as the Rlinlmu number. He maj tct aa many - 1 or he may get as few a8 lit. Within thla maximum anil minimum it taUee pretty careful iteering to try to i.nak a guess and within tbli figure U BlUSt H be. to a certain dr-gree. gueseing as to exactly Cos'a Electoral xote is likely to be H The best Judgment I can arrive at H la that Cox. In addition to the ten southern tato-. und three of 1he bor-iU bor-iU r states. Oklahoma. Kentucky, and H Montana and Nw Mexico, with a o- H tal of 14 This would give htm 'ntal H of 17 1. lie It more likely to fall be- H low than go above thia hUmber, if he H should go above this figure at all. it H u most iikci: to be bacauoa of wait H V irginia During (he i...m few da3 ol the campaign WCft Virginia has be-I be-I come an cxiordtngl) duubtfal ntate H It la one of the very few statea In H which the Democrats have dollar for H dollar aa much as the Kepi, hi leans. WOULD BE TM to i; H Aaumlng that tola number la H liruxtmately correct, let ua considet H fuel hov ov rwhelmlng" the ttapub' B 11. an victory will be. If Co geu 1T1, Harding will get 160. That is a tf.f.J H tiir than two to one, and two to one H i. must be confeaeed la a rather over-H over-H J whelming Ictory. I 1Cl us now measure tt In term' ol I the number of atatea carried. If Cm I gets theae 171 electoral votes he wl! H hae carried eighteen statca and ih I republicans m'lll have carried thirty this N little more than one-;h.rd cl I the total number of ctatos H lg noi I a Kri'ftt distance froni the samo pro 'portion tliat 1 hive already mentioned. . two to one. 't he ttepublicana frequdntly iay that their viCtory is going to be overwhelming, overwhelm-ing, and occaalonntly also that it ia going go-ing to ie unprecedented when thev fey that their victory is going to In ll.prei eilenti d tin-' l o ans b) thai that It will exceed faft'i victory over lltyan In ilfOS and I topacvelt'e victor: 0Vr Parker In 190 4. Tills last victor Is the atandard which the more hop. - ful Republic m ii.iv. aet themaalvea to excel. That defeat Of l arker by ftdosevelt in i9ut reprcaentad low grater mark for the DembCroUe part When the rtepublloani tn'.;,. ahaut ex- ecdlng it :he. rnut-i lu ei opilml .ti, indeed. P IRKKR'S EU OKI) Parker carried only thirteen states. l.h a total of 140 .-,e toral votes. (There le this difference In the conditions condi-tions betweCn now and lft4 Oklahoma Okla-homa was not then .. gtate, Alvo there has been o Congreaalonal reapport'iOn-lueut, reapport'iOn-lueut, In 1910 and this chaugCfl alight-l alight-l the numbei of electoral W014M eji h stiiti-. i it is just poaalble tor the RgpubliCane to hold Cox down to theae s.me states that Parker carried, car-ried, it the Republicans ahould bo ;:hl Co do tliiaflfnd Ih addition cafrj e'.ther Kentucky, tlaryland oriTennea-aae, oriTennea-aae, then they will hu e .. -.ed the Kooaevelt vlciorj ova Parker bf f04 It la barely poaalble lof tlx ttepubli-cana ttepubli-cana to no in.f, bol i doubt lt I UoiJ oil i ' HI .M. bl'ATKS '.Mil! apjj OiicliiaiK i ' tarf ota -r . ail, on bn:.- .sal. s IlkC.y to oe kl r. ed by Harding, It .oiI.jWC fiom what l have already said that the at . whico Harding la iuri eute to oari .. a re s Ma. lie eruiont . . 4 ,a. x llampahirc i M . sj.ehur.etts 18 New Vork 45 I e, n ..!.. u. a 5 8 i icWwAre 1 . lifaa , , 15 IV .s oiialn . . . . H Lltynola 29 ., iiineaota i " A'oith Dakota 5 South Dakota 5 Iowa 13 obruaKa 8 K'tuuaji . voniing 3 Idaho . . . . ' 4 viaahlngtmi 5 Oregon r 5 California 12 ! Total 260 if then is any error In thb list, tt if lil.elj to be In reaped to New U -iiipsaire and Delaware. I The total electoral Vote of Ihese ata aa, ahlch 1 credit ua Hardin? stale. 1, is SAO, or ail otes leas than enough to elect. I have Bet down In this Hat only the states which Hard-Ing Hard-Ing seems practically oeftaln to ia.ry ; the aure Republican Hates. 1 shall mahe no attempt to make predlctlona on thr outcome in terms- 0 the popular vote. This aepoct la so complex that to enter into It at all would result in mare guesswork Th luddltlon of women to t!ie electorate 'I in many atatea is an uncertain elc-iiuout elc-iiuout I have tried lo find out the number Of women who hae reglater-;ed reglater-;ed in the van- n atatea, but it Is not possible lo do so. In many of the 'larger cltiea the number Of women '1 who hai- leglatered Is known, but In 'I the rural districts arid smaller towns 'I the reaUlta have not he.-n tabulated .Moreover, in the rural parts of sonic I states, likg Kenlurltv, it is not ucces-' ucces-' lauty to reistr. Nothing definite ejin I be said in lerms of th popular vote Thla element 01 the added women vot-('r-i makes prt-dletlon this year axcap- i ttonaity difficult, ah oompariaona I I with previous years ur rendered ot- ilaolete, 1 11 is not merely thut ihe additional I women voters makes the total uncer-L.Lsln. uncer-L.Lsln. At best, estimate-; of probnble I irtajoritlen In ",n-h state cannot be I mad( with enough certaint to Jtiatif) I making them at ail. Diligent Ipveatl-gatlon Ipveatl-gatlon Will make poaetbie a certain amount 01 accuracy in predicting Ucw 'a state will go, but a prediction us to .the amount of the Majority is a cue- and nothing more. H IAD 10 PREDICT . For cxaiuph. just preceding the Maine election last. September, 1 hud letter? from thret or toe tour Kepub-jllcad Kepub-jllcad congressmen in Maine, from one of the two ICepubllean senators, and from both the itcpuhllran state chairmen chair-men and the ICepubllean nutlonal committeemen. No one of theaai be llevcd that th Republican majority In Maine would bo oer 3l,o0o. tA-liov-i-ruor Cobt. who Is considered the siirewdest mnn In Maine on matters of this kind predicted 15.000. Mr P-rkhurHi, ho .vdii hlm.xelf running lor govei nor, predicted the nlirht be-loiv be-loiv ihe election that he might have us mucj .s 85000 majority, but add-ed add-ed that lie didn't warti to say eo pub- 1 ' I fur if.ii- h .mid hi laiished at. As a rimttri of fait, the Maine majority ma-jority turmd out to be not far from 70.000. I cltr thla to prove Ujat no amount ..r invest Isatioti and no amount of knowledge m ih,. fgetg Will enable 11' one to male a ,le jirnda bh piedle- tlon aa to a majority In any state or aa to the country us whole. It Is lioaolble to predloi witn fair accuracy whereby o tnt will go Hepubllcan or D mooratic; im beyond that it is not poc 11 'dr to 70. AlBOi one piOre thing rrinklv in Ihe tuitiire of avoidauce M) LnqulrieH iiiin many of these atatea have taken place from a week to two weeks before be-fore the election During those two weeks, Ih ere has unquestionably been a flrift to Cox. possibly sufficient to change tbe complexion or some state; l have tned to entimai" the effect of this, but It is a most diffMil! thing tn manape over so larr- .1 ti-rritorj an |
